TYA after week 8

With the Vikings' season about to go completely down the tubes (but here's some comedy if you need it), I decided to crunch some numbers to while away my sorrow. Remember this set of posts back in January?

http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/JasonWinter/132522
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/JasonWinter/132892
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/JasonWinter/133335
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/JasonWinter/133744

No? Then go back and read them. Or, if you just want the Cliff's Notes version, they were my attempt to create a new quarterback rating system that took every aspect of a quarterback's play -- including rushing, sacks, and fumbles -- into account. Part of it was my desire to prove to everyone that Jon Kitna was an exceedingly mediocre quarterback, despite his throwing for 4,000 yards every season, because he threw a ton of times and took too many sacks. I was also trying to give Tarvaris Jackson as much credit as I could for his rushing prowess.

But in general, I wanted to create a system that accounted for every possible stat a quarterback could accumulate, because there was no other formula out there that did so. Passer rating completely ignores rushing and sacks, which are as much the offensive line's "fault" as it is the O-line's "credit" when a QB has all day to throw and nails a receiver 50 yards downfield. If one should count for the QB, shouldn't the other count against him? At least a little bit?

After that brief introduction, I won't go too much more into the methodology -- you can read the old posts if you want to learn more. In any case, here are the TYAs for every quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts in 2008:

	Name	TYA
1	Philip Rivers	7.41
2	Chad Pennington	7.40
3	Drew Brees	6.95
4	Tony Romo	6.70
5	Jason Campbell	6.67
6	Donovan McNabb	6.43
7	Aaron Rodgers	6.42
8	Jay Cutler	6.36
9	Eli Manning	6.27
10	Kyle Orton	6.06
11	Jake Delhomme	6.04
12	Kurt Warner	6.01
13	Trent Edwards	5.92
14	Matt Ryan	5.84
15	David Garrard	5.61
16	Jeff Garcia	5.42
17	Matt Schaub	5.38
18	Kerry Collins	5.31
19	Peyton Manning	5.15
20	Dan Orlovsky	4.87
21	Matt Cassel	4.49
22	Gus Frerotte	4.42
23	Marc Bulger	4.32
24	JaMarcus Russell	4.28
25	Ben Roethlisberger	3.98
26	Brett Favre	3.89
27	Matt Hasselbeck	3.84
28	Derek Anderson	3.67
29	Joe Flacco	3.61
30	Carson Palmer	3.51
31	J.T. O'Sullivan	3.51
32	Tyler Thigpen	3.42
33	Brian Griese	3.40
34	Jon Kitna	3.24
35	Ryan Fitzpatrick	1.84

The average for these 35 quarterbacks is 5.25. (Recall that I can't figure a league average without looking at every QB's rushing numbers, which aren't available in handy tabular form.)

Phillip Rivers, who also leads the league in passer rating, just barely edges out Chad Pennington, of all people, as the top performer so far this year. Pennington's only thrown three picks and fumbled once this year, helping him beat out MVP candidate Drew Brees, who's tossed seven picks and coughed it up six times. Meanwhile, the Dan Orlovsky/Jon Kitna debate doesn't look like much of a choice here, though neither answer is good.

Ben Roethlisberger, notorious for taking too many sacks, takes a big hit when those are taken into account. Granted, he's currently the #18 quarterback in passer rating, so maybe being knocked down to #25 here isn't such a Humpty-Dumpty-esque fall. The league leader in sacks allowed, J.T. O'Sullivan (32) is helped by exceptional rushing numbers (29 carries for 146 yards), though he's still awful. Meanwhile, Kerry Collins, who has still remarkably only been sacked once in 171 dropbacks is just barely above average (5.31) but still shockingly better than Peyton Manning (5.15). And you think the Bengals miss Carson Palmer? Imagine how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick would look if he hadn't rushed for 121 yards on 21 carries?

For Vikings fans, Gus Frerotte clocks in solidly below average (4.42), right between Matt Cassel and Marc Bulger. Tarvaris Jackson, with 76 "touches" (passes + sacks + rushes) is virtually the same, at 4.37. There's really no right answer to the Vikings' quarterback situation. Hey, Kerry Collins is a free agent next year! (Yes, I'm kidding.)