tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54753575217018692652024-03-14T00:17:20.017-04:00Defensive IndifferenceA Minnesota-born sports fan's idea of witty commentary and statistical analysis.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.comBlogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-2743047673887655732010-10-10T10:47:00.003-04:002010-10-10T11:04:44.800-04:00The Price of Randy Moss<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TLHV_QKx-cI/AAAAAAAAAHA/WAb6yHUI_pw/s1600/RandyMoss.jpg"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 201px; height: 113px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TLHV_QKx-cI/AAAAAAAAAHA/WAb6yHUI_pw/s400/RandyMoss.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5526433500408969666" border="0" /></a><br />Here's a quick guess at what a third-round pick -- which was apparently the going rate for one of the best WRs in history -- is worth.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?pos=ALL&round_1=3&round_2=3&tm=all&year_1=1991&year_2=2000&conference=any&type=">Here are all third-round draft picks from 1991 to 2000</a>. It can be assumed that all of these players have completed their careers or, in a few cases, we've seen enough of them to get a reasonable idea of how successful they've been. We can use PFR's Approximate Value as a guideline, sorting by CarAV to see who the best third-round picks were. The top five are:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Terrell Owens</span> - 116<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Jason Taylor</span> - 115<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Ronde Barber</span> - 110<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Aeneas Williams</span> - 104<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Curtis Martin</span> - 101<br /><br />If the Vikings actually gave up a player of that caliber for a few years late in <span style="font-weight: bold;">Randy Moss</span>' career, then it was a bad move, for certain. (I'll ignore the 7th-rounder the Vikings got from New England.) But those are just five players, out of 323 3rd-round picks, or about 1.5% of all picks. Sorted by AV, here are the number of players, and their percentage of all 323 picks:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">100+: </span>5 (1.5%)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">80-99:</span> 5 (1.5%)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">60-79:</span> 9 (2.8%)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">40-59:</span> 27 (8.4%)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">20-39:</span> 65 (20.1%)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">0-19:</span> 212 (65.6%)<br /><br />That means that about 2 out of every 3 3rd-round picks are essentially valueless -- players who achieve a career AV of less than 20. The 20-39 isn't much better, and the 40-59 tier hardly represents players you would regret not having on your team; the high end of that bracket gives us players like <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ray Buchanan</span>,<span style="font-weight: bold;"> James Jones</span>,<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Brian Griese</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Darrell Jackson</span> -- useful, but not overly significant.<br /><br />Here's another way of looking at it: Coming into this season, Randy Moss has averaged about 14 points of AV per year, and that includes his hideous years with Oakland. Assuming the Vikings have him for three years, and assuming some decline in his skills -- with years of 12, 10, and 8 AV, that would give him 30 points of AV, which would make him better than 255 of the 323 3rd-rounders (78.9%) in our sample. So, you could say that there's about a 4-in-5 chance that this was a good deal for the Vikings and a 1-in-5 chance that the player the Pats get -- which will, we hope, be a <span style="font-style: italic;">late </span>3rd-rounder -- will be good enough to offset the loss of Randy Moss.<br /><br />I'm happy with those odds.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-65031225103644463632010-09-09T18:56:00.004-04:002010-09-09T19:17:31.952-04:002010 Season PredictionsSo that "going to post more" semi-promise. Yeah, not so much.<br /><br />But, on the eve of the 2010 season, the first game of which features the Vikings, I thought I should at least briefly share my opinions on the Vikings chances this season and the NFL as a whole. Unfortunately, I don't share the optimism that most of my brethren seem to.<br /><br />I hate to sound like a naysayer, but I feel the Vikings have declined this offseason, while the Packers look to be really, really good. Our secondary is limping to the starting line, the offensive line (and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Pat Williams</span>) is <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/12/theory-287-why-vikings-cant-run-ball.html">still too fat</a>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span> still fumbles, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sidney Rice</span> is hurt, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brad Childress</span> is still the head coach...<br /><br />Oh, and yeah, there's that guy who's closer to retirement age than he is to college age. He's still a <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2010/07/i-dont-usually-use-d-word-but.html">douche</a>, and his ankle is already hurting.<br /><br />As improbable as it was that <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span> would have the season he did at age 40, it's even more improbable that he'll do it at the age of 41, which he hits a month from tomorrow. Toss in the fact that he doesn't think Brad Childress knows how to run an offense (a point that I agree with him on) and the notion that, even if he's good, his body might not hold up all season, and only the homer-est of homers would have trouble acknowledging that the 2010 Vikings are walking a fine line between excellence and simply very-good-ness.<br /><br />All is not lost, however, even if #4 doesn't perform up to snuff. The 2008 Vikings went 10-6 with <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tarvaris Jackson</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Gus Frerotte</span> at the helm, and Peterson and the defense are enough to at least get us that far. Unfortunately, I don't know that they'll get much farther than that, unless everything comes together like it did last season.<br /><br />My prediction: 10-6<br /><br />Overall NFL Predictions (and very brief summaries):<br /><br />AFC East<br />1. NY Jets - y<br />2. New England - x<br />3. Miami<br />4. Buffalo<br /><br />The Jets probably aren't as good as everyone thinks they are, but they're good enough to get this far.<br /><br />AFC North<br />1. Baltimore - y<br />2. Cincinnati<br />3. Pittsburgh<br />4. Cleveland<br /><br />Sorry Pittsburgh, but you could be really bad this year.<br /><br />AFC South<br />1. Houston - y<br />2. Indianapolis - x<br />3. Tennessee<br />4. Jacksonville<br /><br />Houston has to get it done one of these years, right?<br /><br />AFC West<br />1. San Diego - y<br />2. Denver<br />3. Oakland<br />4. Kansas City<br /><br />I don't see any of these teams doing anything notable.<br /><br />NFC East<br />1. Dallas - y<br />2. Washington<br />3. Philadelphia<br />4. NY Giants<br /><br />Dallas is the only really good team here, IMHO<br /><br />NFC North<br />1. Green Bay - y<br />2. Minnesota - x<br />3. Detroit<br />4. Chicago<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Jay Cutler</span> is really not good.<br /><br />NFC South<br />1. Atlanta - y<br />2. New Orleans - x<br />3. Carolina<br />4. Tampa Bay<br /><br />Don't sleep on the Panthers.<br /><br />NFC West<br /><br />1. San Francisco - y<br />2. Arizona<br />3. St. Louis<br />4. Seattle<br /><br />See AFC West.<br /><br />AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England<br />NFC Championship: Green Bay over Dallas<br />Super Bowl: Baltimore over Green Bay<br /><br />See you in five months!Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-56676232327984011162010-07-20T20:39:00.001-04:002010-07-20T20:40:44.364-04:00I don't usually use the d-word, but...You know you're a douche when even <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Sick-of-Brett-Favre-You-re-not-alone?urn=nfl%2C256910">your agent</a> calls you a "goddamned drama queen":<br /><br />And yes, I realize that complaining about media coverage of Favre while linking to an article about Favre is ironic, but none of it would be necessary if he wasn't such a douche.<br /><br />Douche.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-46935285997952657412010-07-17T19:38:00.005-04:002010-07-17T20:12:11.426-04:00How many idiots does it take to make a bad draft pick?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TEJGi6CtIFI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JhgAs_OHk6k/s1600/jimmy-clausen.jpg"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 196px; height: 161px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TEJGi6CtIFI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JhgAs_OHk6k/s400/jimmy-clausen.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5495032060855525458" border="0" /></a><br />M<img src="file:///C:/Users/Jason%20Mk3/Desktop/colt-mccoy3.jpg" alt="" />y answer: one.<br /><br />On the other hand, it takes a lot of idiots to make a good draft pick.<br /><br />And at the heart of this discussion are <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jimmy Clausen</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Col</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">t McCoy</span> and why I'm OK with the Vikings not drafting either one of them, even with their pressing long-term needs at quarterback.<br /><br />Confused? Good! Now, let me explain.<br /><br />First, when I say "good" or "bad" draft pick, I mean that a player was drafted lower (good) or higher (bad) than he probably should have been. By this definition, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Peyton Manning</span> wasn't a good draft pick. He was picked #1 overall, which was probably about right. The same goes for <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span>, who was the #7 overall pick, and could arguably be called the #7 best player in the league right now. Similarly, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sam </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Manuel</span>, the last pick of the 1996 draft who never played a game in the NFL, wasn't a "bad" pick -- he was picked right about where he should have been.<br /><br />Now consider someone like<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Troy Williamson</span>. #7 overall, has done squat in his NFL career...clearly a "bad" pick. On the flip side, there's the #199 pick in the 2000 draft, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tom Brady</span>. He was a "good" draft pick.<br /><br />Most teams probably had Williamson much lower on their draft boards than #7. But the Vikings, thinking themselves "smarter" than everyone else, had him pegged very high and chose him with the #7 overall pick. In other words, it can be argued that 31 of 32 NFL teams were "smart" about Williamson, and it only took one "idiot" team to overdraft him and make him a "bad" pick.<br /><br />Now, look at Brady. Every NFL team passed on hi, multiple times. Clearly, this was not a good decision. The Patriots finally picked him -- making them the "smart" team and the other 31 teams "idiots." Even so, Brady is an anomaly. 6th-round draft picks don't normally go on to Hall-of-Fame careers. Nobody was commenting on how Brady was a "steal" when he was drafted. 30 of 31 teams didn't even want him on their roster, and the Patriots didn't even care to expend a pick on him until the draft was nearly over.<br /><br />Clearly, the Patriots did well by drafting Brady. But it's not like they possessed some kind of prescient knowledge that he would go on to the type of career he did. If they did, they would have drafted him much earlier. At most, they were hoping for a capable backup and, perhaps someday down the road, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Drew Bledsoe</span>'s replacement.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TEJGrm2OGeI/AAAAAAAAAGw/Cp_gDc7WLfk/s1600/colt-mccoy.jpg"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 161px; height: 220px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TEJGrm2OGeI/AAAAAAAAAGw/Cp_gDc7WLfk/s400/colt-mccoy.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5495032210321709538" border="0" /></a><br />All of which brings us back to Clausen and McCoy. The Vikings could have drafted either player but chose not to do so. Instead, Clausen went #48 overall to the Panthers, while McCoy slid to the third round and was picked in the #85 slot by the Browns. Along with <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sam Bradford</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tim Tebow</span>, who were taken before the Vikings' first draft pick, both were considered potential future franchise quarterbacks. All four were featured extensively on ESPN, including a "QB school" run by <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jon Gruden</span>, where he broke down each QB.<br /><br />My question is: If they're so good, how could every NFL team pass on them -- some multiple times?<br /><br />Yes, not every team needed a quarterback, but I count about 17 possible picks before Clausen went and 25 before McCoy was drafted by teams that could have potentially gone after a QB (including several by Cleveland before the team took McCoy). If these two players are so good and were, according to many draft "experts," undervalued and "steals" by the teams that picked them, then why did it take so long for them to be drafted? I clearly didn't spend weeks breaking down each player, but I came away from his session with Gruden unimpressed. Both might be decent QBs -- and certainly better than what the Vikings look to have under center in 2011 -- but I don't think we "missed out" on either player. Chances are that both of them were "decent" draft picks, picked right about where they should have been.<br /><br />(And only time will tell if the Denver Broncos were smarter than the likely 31 of 32 NFL teams who didn't think Tim Tebow was worthy of a first-round pick. Given those odds, I'd be pessimistic about Tebow's chances.)Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-41791711981877966522010-07-11T11:50:00.004-04:002010-07-11T12:57:02.042-04:002000 Draft Revisited<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TDn3myexUZI/AAAAAAAAAGg/s6uA0yzXXek/s1600/tombrady.jpg"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 122px; height: 168px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_sgo6Fp8AEhY/TDn3myexUZI/AAAAAAAAAGg/s6uA0yzXXek/s400/tombrady.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5492693466312954258" border="0" /></a><br />We all (OK,<span style="font-style: italic;"> I</span>) like to talk about how silly it is for the NFL pundits to grade the draft hours, or even minutes after teams have made their selections. We all (really, all of us!) know that you can't give a team an A- or a C+ or an F on its draft until several years have passed and those rookies have turned into All-Pros or unemployed free agents. Unfortunately, nobody ever really keeps track of what the draftniks of the world have had to say and hold them accountable for their predictions of draft success.<br /><br />Yeah, I'm gonna go there.<br /><br /><a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/peter_king/news/2000/04/16/king_mmqb/">Here</a> is <span style="font-weight: bold;">Peter King</span>'s draft report card from the 2000 NFL Draft. After 10 years, I think we can get a pretty good idea of how these teams actually did in the draft. To evaluate the draft, I'll be using Pro-Football-Reference's Approximate Value (AV) system to sum up the total value of a team's draft picks. AV is a decent measure of overall value of a player, whether he's a quarterback, offensive lineman, safety, tight end, whatever. It's not perfect, and, for purposes of tracking the draft, it doesn't account for players who leave a team via trade or free agency, but it's a reasonable way to measure draft success, and, since the draft was 10 years ago, most players taken in it have played the bulk -- if not all -- of their careers, giving us a good measuring point to determine their overall success.<br /><br />Here's the draft list, sorted by AV, with Peter King's placement listed first and the team's top pick, as determined by AV:<br /><br /><style type="text/css">.nobrtable br { display: none }</style><br /><div class="nobrtable"><br /><table style="width: 395px; height: 122px;"><tbody><br /><tr><td style="font-weight: bold;">King</td><td style="font-weight: bold;">Team</td><td style="font-weight: bold;">TotalAV</td><td style="font-weight: bold;">Top Player</td><td style="font-weight: bold;">AV</td></tr><br /><tr><td>14</td><td>NY Jets</td><td>280</td><td>John Abraham</td><td>68</td></tr><br /><tr><td>6</td><td>Green Bay</td><td>257</td><td>Chad Clifton</td><td>61</td></tr><br /><tr><td>23</td><td>Chicago</td><td>235</td><td>Brian Urlacher</td><td>97</td></tr><br /><tr><td>11</td><td>San Francisco</td><td>212</td><td>Julian Peterson</td><td>64</td></tr><br /><tr><td>7</td><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>199</td><td>Plaxico Burress</td><td>66</td></tr><br /><tr><td>19</td><td>Denver</td><td>196</td><td>Deltha O'Neal</td><td>47</td></tr><br /><tr><td>16</td><td>Baltimore</td><td>188</td><td>Jamal Lewis</td><td>69</td></tr><br /><tr><td>15</td><td>NY Giants</td><td>183</td><td>Cornelius Griffin</td><td>59</td></tr><br /><tr><td>9</td><td>Tennessee</td><td>172</td><td>Keith Bulluck</td><td>68</td></tr><br /><tr><td>2</td><td>Seattle</td><td>168</td><td>Shaun Alexander</td><td>68</td></tr><br /><tr><td>8</td><td>New England</td><td>167</td><td>Tom Brady</td><td>104</td></tr><br /><tr><td>17</td><td>Arizona</td><td>156</td><td>Thomas Jones</td><td>58</td></tr><br /><tr><td>31</td><td>New Orleans</td><td>156</td><td>Marc Bulger</td><td>57</td></tr><br /><tr><td>12</td><td>Jacksonville</td><td>153</td><td>Brad Meester</td><td>50</td></tr><br /><tr><td>25</td><td>Minnesota</td><td>146</td><td>Chris Hovan</td><td>57</td></tr><br /><tr><td>21</td><td>Carolina</td><td>131</td><td>Deon Grant</td><td>54</td></tr><br /><tr><td>18</td><td>Cincinnati</td><td>131</td><td>Neil Rackers</td><td>45</td></tr><br /><tr><td>1</td><td>Oakland</td><td>131</td><td>Sebastian Janikowski</td><td>50</td></tr><br /><tr><td>24</td><td>Indianapolis</td><td>128</td><td>Marcus Washington</td><td>53</td></tr><br /><tr><td>13</td><td>Philadelphia</td><td>111</td><td>Corey Simon</td><td>47</td></tr><br /><tr><td>4</td><td>Washington</td><td>111</td><td>LaVar Arrington</td><td>61</td></tr><br /><tr><td>10</td><td>Cleveland</td><td>110</td><td>Dennis Northcutt</td><td>41</td></tr><br /><tr><td>22</td><td>Detroit</td><td>96</td><td>Reuben Droughns</td><td>27</td></tr><br /><tr><td>20</td><td>Kansas City</td><td>96</td><td>Greg Wesley</td><td>38</td></tr><br /><tr><td>28</td><td>St. Louis</td><td>94</td><td>Brian Young</td><td>42</td></tr><br /><tr><td>27</td><td>San Diego</td><td>87</td><td>Damion McIntosh</td><td>39</td></tr><br /><tr><td>29</td><td>Atlanta</td><td>66</td><td>Mark Simoneau</td><td>31</td></tr><br /><tr><td>5</td><td>Buffalo</td><td>64</td><td>Sammy Morris</td><td>26</td></tr><br /><tr><td>3</td><td>Tampa Bay</td><td>60</td><td>Cosey Coleman</td><td>27</td></tr><br /><tr><td>26</td><td>Miami</td><td>59</td><td>Todd Wade</td><td>39</td></tr><br /><tr><td>30</td><td>Dallas</td><td>34</td><td>Mario Edwards</td><td>24</td></tr><br /></tbody></table></div><br /><br />The biggest issue with AV, IMO, is that it doesn't rate kickers (or punters), and there were three kickers and one punter who were drafted in 2000 -- first-rounder <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sebastian Janikowski</span> (Oakland), along with <span style="font-weight: bold;">Neil Rackers</span> (Cincinnati), <span style="font-weight: bold;">Paul Edinger</span> (Chicago), and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Shane Lechler</span> (Oakland again). I decided to go with a very simple rating of 1 AV per 20 points scored for each of these kickers. The very best players ever in the NFL have AVs around 150-200 for their careers (<span style="font-weight: bold;">Jerry Rice</span> is 250), and that would put the best kickers -- the ones around 2,000 career points at about 100 AV, which seems fair for kickers. As for Lechler, I semi-arbitrarily gave him an AV of 40 -- less than Jano, but still appropriate, I think, for a guy who's been probably the best punter of the last 10 years.<br /><br />Some observations:<br /><ul><li>It's not hard to rule the roost when you have four #1 draft picks, as the Jets did in 2000. None have gone on to truly spectacular, HOF-worthy careers, but the foursome of <span style="font-weight: bold;">John Abraham</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Chad Pennington</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Shaun Ellis</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Anthony Becht</span> have a total AV of 208, which would be enough for fourth place alone -- not bad for one round!<br /></li><li>Lechler and Jano save Oakland from having a truly abysmal draft; without my AV assignments to those two, the Raiders would have mustered just 41 total AV from their other picks, good for #30 (of 31) on the list. Still, they were probably a tad overrated by King.</li><li>Meanwhile, King's worst draft grade went to New Orleans, and probably deservedly so. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Marc Bulger</span> never played a down for the Saints; without him, the team's total AV drops to a mediocre 99, with <span style="font-weight: bold;">Darren Howard</span> (42) as the only notable.</li><li>Several of King's lowest grades -- St. Louis (28), San Diego (27), Atlanta (29), Miami (26), and Dallas (30) -- actually do rank among the worst drafts of 2000. Dallas' picks are especially putrid. Admittedly, they only had five picks, and #49 was their highest, but still... only sixth-rounder <span style="font-weight: bold;">Mario Edwards</span> made any kind of NFL impact.</li><li>King doesn't think much of Chicago's draft. "Brian Urlacher had better be great," he said, and he is, at least when he's healthy.</li><li>"he'll be a better pro than<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Ron Dayne</span>" is what King said about <span style="font-weight: bold;">Shaun Alexander</span>. Uh, yeah.</li><li>His opinions of Tampa Bay's and Buffalo's drafts, though, were a little overly optimistic. "<span style="font-weight: bold;">Cosey Coleman</span>'s an eight-year starter after <span style="font-weight: bold;">Randall McDaniel</span> retires," he said. Not bad -- Coleman started for six years with the Bucs and Browns. Then he said, "<span style="font-weight: bold;">Corey Moore</span>, will be one of those classic Bills picks (they always get a very good player after the first round, every year), the kind of player GMs will regret passing on." Moore played two years in the NFL, one for Buffalo and one for Miami.<br /></li><li>One very good player can really skew a team's overall ranking. If not for <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tom Brady</span>, the Patriots would have had a total AV of 63, and their best player would have been <span style="font-weight: bold;">Greg Randall</span> (17).</li><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Tee Martin</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Danny Farmer</span> also get big props for Pittsburgh.</li><li>The "uninspired" Vikings draft turns out OK. Unfortunately, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Chris Hovan</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Fred Robbins</span> wind up playing much of their football outside of Minnesota, forcing the team to rely heavily on free agency for much of the decade, with mixed results.</li></ul>Anyway, King's analysis of the draft is pretty much what you'd expect: some hits, some misses, overall reasonably good (as anyone can do just by observing draft position and possessing some football savvy) but generally uneven. And, like the Buffalo observation, a whole lot of "this guy is a hidden gem"-type commentary that's easy to ignore when the guy doesn't pan out (which happens 99% of the time) and is highly recounted when it's right. Shame he didn't get on the bandwagon of that Brady guy. Still, I suggest you read the full article if, for nothing else, a trip down nostalgia lane.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-30813626192131506272010-06-19T12:11:00.005-04:002010-06-19T12:46:28.732-04:00The not-so-triumphant returnHey there. Been a while.<br /><br />I won't get too heavily into what's been keeping me away from here. Don't worry, it's nothing drastic -- I'm not dying, I'm not in prison, I'm not getting married. I've just been busier at my job than ever before and I just didn't have the energy to try and keep up a blog when I went home in the evenings. I can't guarantee that I will now, but I'd like to still post occasionally, when the mood strikes me, which has been rare as of late. Just don't expect three to four posts per week, like I used to do.<br /><br />In the meantime, if you're new here, or relatively new, you might have missed out on some of my crude attempts at analysis over the past few years. Now that fantasy football season is nearly upon us again (and I actually work for a company that produces fantasy sports magazines, though not in that department), all the tired old theories are being trotted out again as to why a player will have a better/worse season in 2010. So I thought I'd take a little time to refresh you on what I think on such matters, backed up by more than just selective memory and wishful thinking.<br /><br />Here are my two most significant findings for you to keep in mind this fantasy football season:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1) The running game has virtually no effect (statistically, at least) on the passing game and vice versa.</span> Don't believe it when someone says, "Running back X will have a great season now that quarterback Y is on his team!" This is often quoted when a RB <span style="font-style: italic;">does </span>have a good year when a new QB arrives (or an old QB does well) and <span style="font-style: italic;">never </span>mentioned when a RB has a bad year with a good QB (or a QB has a bad year with a good RB). For the statement to be true, it must apply in a majority, if not all cases. I got into it a little bit with someone<a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=6325"> on the PFR blog lately</a> but decided to bow out since my research was a little crusty and spread out.<br /><br />And here is that old, crusty research! Enjoy!<br /><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/can-brett-help-adrian.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/can-brett-help-adrian.html</a><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/brett-adrian-part-2.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/brett-adrian-part-2.html</a><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/you-cant-un-learn-things.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/you-cant-un-learn-things.html</a><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/non-statistical-opinion-on-great-debate.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/non-statistical-opinion-on-great-debate.html</a><br /><br />If you can only read one, read the second one. It contains most of the significant data.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2) A wide receiver's performance has nothing to do with other wide receivers on his team.</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Larry Fitzgerald</span> will probably see his numbers drop this year, but it won't be because <span style="font-weight: bold;">Anquan Boldin</span> left. The absence of <span style="font-weight: bold;">Kurt Warner</span> will have a much bigger effect. A complimentary wide receiver (or good-hands tight end) has little to no effect on a player's stats. I covered that concept here:<br /><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/does-great-fantasy-receiver-need-2.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/does-great-fantasy-receiver-need-2.html</a><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/revisiting-receivers.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/07/revisiting-receivers.html</a><br /><br />When it comes to premises like these, I still think it's a case of people just trying to sound smarter than they are or, in the case of fantasy football, trying to make it seem like they're getting a great or emergent player as a great draft pick. Don't buy into it. Remember, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Matt Forte</span> was supposed to have an awesome year once the Bears landed <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jay Cutler</span>.<br /><br />Oh yeah, speaking of Jay Cutler...<br /><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-broncos-are-6-0.html">http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/10/why-broncos-are-6-0.html</a><br /><br />And here's one last fun little Cutler/<span style="font-weight: bold;">Kyle Orton</span> comparison:<br /><br />Broncos' #1 QB passer ratings:<br />2008 (Cutler): 86.0<br />2009 (Orton): 86.8<br /><br />Bears' #1 QB passer ratings:<br />2008 (Orton): 79.6<br />2009 (Cutler): 76.8<br /><br />Still think that was a good deal, Bears fans?Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-51890918796145947082010-03-20T13:14:00.005-04:002010-03-20T16:03:23.362-04:00RBIs and Touchdowns<span style="font-weight: bold;">Joe Posnanski</span> recently posted a nice article about the relative <a href="http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/03/13/pedro-feliz-houston/#more-3190">lack of value of RBIs</a>, something that virtually any baseball fan with more than rudimentary knowledge of the game understands. These two paragraphs, in particular, helped solidify in my mind a similar idea I'd had for a while about football:<br /><p></p><blockquote><p>But it really isn’t so. Take this situation: One out, Rick Manning cracks a line drive single. Duane Kuiper hits a high chopper in front of the plate, he’s out, but Manning takes second. Jim Norris, with first base open and two outs, works for a walk. Manning and Norris move up on a wild pitch. Pitcher works around Andre Thornton, and he walks. Then, with a 3-1 count and the bases loaded, the pitcher has to throw a fastball that catches too much of the plate, and Rico Carty rolls a single between short and third, scoring two runs.</p> <p>That’s a fairly typical sequence, I would guess. In our mind and in our statbook, Carty is the hero — two RBIs. He is, in fan and media shorthand, RESPONSIBLE for those runs. But he isn’t. Carty’s single didn’t make those two runs happen. Those two runs scored because of a series of events, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Carty’s single was just the last of those events.</span></p></blockquote><p></p><p>I've emphasized that last sentence to drive home the notion that I have the same feeling regarding touchdowns. Last season, Adrian Peterson had 1,383 yards, a 4.3 average, and 18 touchdowns. In 2008, he had 1,760 yards, a 4.8 average, and 10 touchdowns. And I'd wager that at least a third of football fans would point to his 18 TDs in 2009 as a positive sign, despite the lower yardage and yards per carry.</p><p>I don't. I think they're meaningless, except to fantasy football players -- kinda like the RBI is to fantasy baseballers.</p><p>We've all seen drives where the quarterback passes and the featured back runs the ball down to the 1-yard-line. Then, in comes <span style="font-weight: bold;">Mike Alstott</span> (or <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jerome Bettis</span> or <span style="font-weight: bold;">Craig Heyward</span>) to plunge it in from the one. Alstott is the Rico Carty of this scenario. To paraphrase JoePo: Alstott's run didn’t make that touchdown happen. That touchdown was scored because of a series of events and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Alstott's run was just the last of those events</span>.</p><p>To be certain, there are times when the player scoring the touchdown is the "hero" of the drive and fully deserving of the stat bump and the accolades that come with scoring the TD. But taking another look at Peterson's 18 TDs in 2009, nine of them came from one yard out and only four came from further than five yards out. Peterson's good, to be certain, but a lot of backs could have scored from that distance, just as a lot of players can hit a single -- like Rico Carty did -- and drive in two runs in JoePo's scenario. All of which isn't to say AP's not a great player. He is, but it's not because he scored 18 TDs last year.</p><p>This is also why I've been slow to adapt to the notion, now professed by the guys at Pro-Football-Reference, that a TD should be worth 20 adjusted yards (instead of 10). To me, a touchdown doesn't require much more skill than any other run and shouldn't be rewarded in the stats. Yes, it is more difficult to gain a yard on the one-yard-line than it is on the 50, and I'm willing to give the 10-yard bump for that, but 20 just seems like too much to me.<br /></p><p>Finally, JoePo goes on in his article to name a few situations where teams that added players who had poor averages put up big RBI numbers actually scored fewer runs the next season. I thought I'd see if there was any similar correlation in football. I did a search of players who scored more than 15 rushing TDs ("high RBI totals") but averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry ("low batting average/OBP") and got <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2009&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_rb=Y&c1stat=rush_yds_per_att&c1comp=lt&c1val=4&c2stat=rush_td&c2comp=gt&c2val=15&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=rush_td">this list</a> of nine players. (The Redskins apparently <span style="font-style: italic;">love </span>these guys!) Did they improve their team's scoring the year they scored so many TDs? Let's see:</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">John Riggins</span>: 24 TDs in 1983<br />1983 Redskins: 33.8 points per game<br />1982 Redskins: 21.1 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Terry Allen</span>: 21 TDs in 1996<br />1996 Redskins: 22.8 ppg<br />1995 Redskins: 20.4 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">George Rogers</span>: 18 TDs in 1986<br />1986 Redskins: 23.0 ppg<br />1985 Redskins: 18.6 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">LaDainian Tomlinson</span>: 17 TDs in 2004<br />2004 Chargers: 27.9 ppg<br />2003 Chargers: 19.6 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Shaun Alexander</span>: 16 TDs in 2002<br />2002 Seahawks: 22.2 ppg<br />2001 Seahawks: 18.8 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pete Banaszak:</span> 16 TDs in 1975<br />1975 Raiders: 26.8 ppg<br />1974 Raiders: 25.4 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Lenny Moore</span>: 16 TDs in 1964<br />1964 Colts: 30.6 ppg<br />1963 Colts: 22.6 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Karim-Abdul Jabbar</span>: 16 TDs in 1997<br />1997 Dolphins: 21.2 ppg<br />1996 Dolphins: 21.2 ppg</p><p><span style="font-weight: bold;">Lendale White</span>: 16 TDs in 2008<br />2008 Titans: 23.4 ppg<br />2007 Titans: 18.8 ppg</p><p>Well, that's not quite what I was expecting. In every situation except one (the Dolphins scored exactly 339 points in both 1996 and 1997), the team in the high-TD year scored more points than in the previous year -- and it usually wasn't even close. My only redeeming thought is that, unlike an "RBI machine," a high-TD featured runner can score around a third to a quarter of his team's points, compared to accounting for only about one-sixth to one-seventh of a team's RBI total, which is all most hitters can manage. Thus, with an outlying high-TD season, a high-TD back can have a bigger impact on his team's overall scoring than the RBI machine. I might also claim that five of these nine players were just barely under the 4.0 yards per carry mark (3.87 or better), so it's not like they were truly awful. And I'm not looking up any other team-related improvements that might have accounted for the increase in scoring. If I found a way to incorporate Adrian Peterson's 2008-09 seasons into this mix, I'd see that the Vikings scored 470 points in 2009 (when Peterson scored 18 TDs) and 379 in 2008 (when Peterson scored 10 TDs). But I think we all know <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FavrBr00.htm">who</a> was responsible for that.<br /></p><p>Maybe a wider search using <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2009&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_rb=Y&c1stat=rush_yds_per_att&c1comp=lt&c1val=3.75&c2stat=rush_td&c2comp=gt&c2val=12&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=rush_td">this list</a> (greater than 12 rushing TDs and less than 3.75 yards per carry) would shed some more light on the subject, but that's for another day. I'll still draft AP #1 overall in my fantasy football league, but I'll prefer if he has a season like 2008 than like he did in 2009. </p>Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-66231685387213692692010-03-14T15:26:00.003-04:002010-03-14T15:45:53.179-04:00Super Bowl XXXIII reduxI've been playing around with the <a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp#top">NFL SimMatchup on WhatIfSports.com</a> lately, where you can match up any two teams in history and play a simulated game with them, just to answer the question: If <span style="font-weight: bold;">Denny Green</span> (and not <span style="font-weight: bold;">Gary Anderson</span>) hadn't lost the 1998 NFC Championship Game for the Vikings, how would they have fared in the Super Bowl against the Denver Broncos? Better than the Falcons, who got hammered 34-19 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score indicated.<br /><br />It's easy to set up and sim games (if you're setting up this particular game, set 1998 Denver as Away, 1998 Minnesota as Home and select Pro Player Stadium at 70 degrees), and my first result was <a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222758&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">this</a> 24-17 Denver win.<br /><br />All right, so that's not very encouraging. But at least it was a far more exciting game than the real result, with Denver scoring the go-ahead TD with just five seconds remaining.<br /><br />Still, small sample size, blah blah blah, so I ran nine more sims to get a full 10-game sample to play with. The results were:<br /><br />Denver 24-17<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222764&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Minnesota 18-13</a> (six Gary Anderson field goals)<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222766&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Minnesota 23-16</a> (<span style="font-weight: bold;">Cris Carter</span> TD catch with 0:25 left)<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222769&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Denver 24-21</a><br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222772&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Denver 27-20</a> (24 of game's 47 points in the fourth quarter)<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222774&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Minnesota 28-17</a><br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222776&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Minnesota 23-17</a><br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222779&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Denver 54-41</a> (!!!!)<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222783&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Denver 44-24</a> (<span style="font-weight: bold;">Terrell Davis </span>239 yards rushing)<br /><a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222785&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">Minnesota 17-14</a><br /><br />That's five wins apiece for each Denver and Minnesota, with an average score of Denver 25, Minnesota 23.2. And nearly all of them exciting, close affairs.<br /><br />A few more notes on that insane <a href="http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/boxscore.asp?GameID=3222779&teamfee=-1&theme=-1">54-41 game</a>:<br /><br />* The game started off slowly, with Denver leading just 7-0 after the first quarter. The single-quarter scores after that were Minnesota 17-13, Denver 14-3, and Minnesota 21-20.<br /><br />* Terrell Davis ran for 292 yards, which would have been an NFL single-game record at the time, and three touchdowns.<br /><br />* <span style="font-weight: bold;">Randall Cunningham </span>countered with 396 yards passing and 3 TDs, 141 of it going to <span style="font-weight: bold;">Randy Moss</span>.<br /><br />* Total offense: Denver 567, Minnesota 493, for a total of 1,060 yards.<br /><br />* In a game like this, you'd have expected to see a few turnovers and long returns setting up or outright creating scores, but there were no turnovers and didn't appear to be any TD returns on kicks or punts.<br /><br />* In a show of poor sportsmanship (which can probably be chalked up to the game algorithm just trying to score as much as possible), Denver kicked a field goal on the final snap of the game while already possessing a 10-point lead, to inflate the final score from 51-41 to 54-41. Boo, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Dan Reeves</span>!<br /><br />Anyway, this is just one of the cool things you can do with the SimMatchup, and thanks to the guys at the Pro-Football-Reference blog for pointing it out to me. They've got their own <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=6260">interesting application</a> for the SimMatchup planned, and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I'll definitely be rooting for the 1998 Vikings!Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-7010709963354321952010-03-10T13:55:00.004-05:002010-03-10T14:03:46.455-05:00Tarvaris Jackson for Brady Quinn?The <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4982407">Browns are looking</a> to deal <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brady Quinn</span> and want a quarterback in exchange.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Tarvaris Jackson</span> is essentially done in Minnesota, whether or not <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span> returns.<br /><br />So, why not?<br /><br />I'm not as low on Quinn as others are -- playing for that awful Cleveland team will make anyone look bad. I don't know if his 53.2% completion percentage and 5.2 yards per attempt last year were his fault of the fault of his receivers, but he avoids turnovers (just nine interceptions in 353 career attempts and four fumbles on 45 career "touches") and he just looked too good in college to be a complete NFL bust. Give him <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sidney Rice</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Bernard Berrian</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Visanthe Shiancoe</span> to throw to and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span> (and <span style="font-weight: bold;">LaDanian Tomlinson</span>?) to hand off to, and he'll have to look better.<br /><br />Besides, the Browns already have <span style="font-weight: bold;">Seneca Wallace</span>. With T-Jack, they could have the most mobile quarterbacking in the league, which they'll probably need.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-21174942116383738682010-03-05T18:48:00.004-05:002010-03-05T19:13:36.532-05:00Busy day for the NFC NorthAs a "final 8" team in this new uncapped year, the Vikings don't look to be too active in free agency this offseason. But the other teams in the division aren't as restricted, as was evidenced by today's flurry of activity by two of the Vikings' divisional rivals.<br /><br />Well, by one of our divisional rivals and the Lions.<br /><br />Here's my opinions, in order of increasing importance, of the five free-agent moves made today by the Bears and the Lions.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">5) Lions sign WR Nate Burleson.</span> Apparently learning nothing from the Seahawks, who got nine more catches and 31 fewer yards in four years of Burleson than the Vikings got from him in three, the Lions handed Burleson a five-year, $25 million contract. He did have a respectable 63 catches and 812 yards for the Seahawks last year but also missed three games, following a one-game 2008 season. And the Lions continue to show why they're in last place, year after year.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">4) Bears sign RB Chester Taylor. </span>If you're surprised I rank this transaction so low, consider this: The Bears already have a decent third-down back in <span style="font-weight: bold;">Matt Forte</span> (120 receptions in two seasons), Taylor will turn 31 just after the start of the season, and he's averaged 4.0 and 3.6 yards per carry his last two years with the Vikings. If the Bears plan to make him their featured back, consider that Taylor managed just 4.0 yards per carry his one year as a featured back (2006), which was vastly inflated by his 95-yard run against the Seahawks; he managed just 3.7 yards per carry on his other runs that year. I'm really appreciative of what Taylor did in his four years with the Vikes, but his age, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span>'s new-found receiving skills, and the presence of <span style="font-weight: bold;">Albert Young</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ian Johnson</span> to take over the backup role made him eminently expendable.<br /><br />(Strange note: In my copy of Madden NFL 2009 that I played four seasons of last year, Taylor signed with the Bears during the 09-10 offseason. Now, if <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tarvaris Jackson</span> can just lead us to the Super Bowl, my game will be uncannily accurate...)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3) Lions sign DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. </span>Two years ago, Vanden Bosch was coming off three seasons of 12.5, 6.5, and 12.0 sacks. Since then, he's managed just 7.5 sacks, and the Titans' scoring defense sank to 28th in the league last year. Granted, he instantly improves the Lions' defense -- not a difficult task -- but he's not the playmaker he used to be.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2) Bears sign TE Brandon Manumaleuna. </span>Chester Taylor won't do much to improve the Bears' running game, but Manumaleuna might. He's not much of a pass-catcher, but he's blocked for the likes of <span style="font-weight: bold;">LaDanian Tomlinson</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Marshall Faulk</span> during some of their biggest years. On the bright side, this means that Greg Olson's career as a Bear is almost virtually done, as he'll likely be traded for a draft pick, so, in the short term, one wonders if the "trade" is a wash.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1) Bears sign DE Julius Peppers.</span> All of the other transactions involve so-so players or don't provide significant upgrades to their teams. This one's the biggie, though, and I, for one, am not looking forward to Peppers making our QBs run for their lives twice a year. My only consolation is that Peppers turned 30 in January (by comparison, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jared Allen</span> is two years younger), but as was evident in the Panthers' game against the Vikings in December, he can still give any offensive coordinator nightmares.<br /><br />Still, in general, I think that most of these moves -- Peppers excepting -- aren't the kind of big-impact deals that can completely change a team. The only team I'm really worried about in our division going into next year is the Packers, who, in winning seven of their last eight regular-season games last year, might not need much in the free agency market to give the Vikings a run for their money in 2010.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-48983600033896685102010-02-28T10:25:00.003-05:002010-02-28T11:04:48.559-05:00Lazy Sunday miscellaney<a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-vikings-favre&prov=ap&type=lgns">Vikings OK waiting on Favre's decision</a>.<br /><br />Like we have a choice.<br /><br />* If <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span> returns and throws more than 100 passes, he will become just the fourth such quarterback to do so at the age of 41, joining <span style="font-weight: bold;">Warren Moon</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Vinny Testaverde</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Doug Flutie</span>, as seen <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2009&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=41&age_max=48&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_qb=Y&pos_is_rb=Y&pos_is_wr=Y&pos_is_te=Y&pos_is_rec=Y&pos_is_t=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_ol=Y&pos_is_dt=Y&pos_is_de=Y&pos_is_dl=Y&pos_is_ilb=Y&pos_is_olb=Y&pos_is_lb=Y&pos_is_cb=Y&pos_is_s=Y&pos_is_db=Y&pos_is_k=Y&pos_is_p=Y&c1stat=pass_att&c1comp=gt&c1val=100&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_att">here</a>.<br /><br />* Speaking of Testaverde, I find it interesting that it may be a while before we see another QB inducted into the Hall of Fame. There were no passers among this year's finalists, and among quarterbacks who retired from 2005 to 2008, only Testaverde, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Drew Bledsoe</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Steve McNair</span> have anything resembling a chance at the HOF, and I'd say all are iffy prospects, at best. The potential inductees in 2015 will include <span style="font-weight: bold;">Kurt Warner</span> and possibly Favre.<br /><br />* How good was Favre's 2009? <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1920&year_max=2009&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&league_id=&team_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_qb=Y&c1stat=pass_td&c1comp=gt&c1val=31&c2stat=pass_int&c2comp=lt&c2val=9&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pass_td">Only four QBs</a> in the history of the NFL have had a season of more than 30 TDs and fewer than 10 interceptions, as Favre did in 2009. All of them came in the last decade. All except Favre went to the Super Bowl that year.<br /><br />* And if Favre doesn't return? Well, there's <span style="font-weight: bold;">Donovan McNabb</span> dangling out there, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sage Rosenfels</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tarvaris Jackson</span> are in-house options -- and let's hope <a href="http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Mock-draft-20.html">this scenario</a> doesn't play out. We already have enough running backs, we don't need to draft one in the first round.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-49917551292798117902010-02-20T19:12:00.004-05:002010-02-20T20:01:55.711-05:00Cris Carter and the Hall of Fame<span style="font-weight: bold;">Cris Carter</span> isn't in the Hall of Fame yet, and that doesn't sit well with some people. And by some people, I mean "most Vikings fans," as can be evidenced by the outpouring of confused indifference to seething rage by bloggers:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.dailynorseman.com/2010/2/12/1308276/gonzos-third-annual-why-isnt-cris">Daily Norseman</a><br /><br /><a href="http://purplejesus.wordpress.com/2010/02/08/john-randle-is-a-worthy-hall-of-fame-vote-but-%e2%80%a6/">Purple Jesus Diaries</a><br /><br />I'm sure there are more out there. <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/01/cris-carter-misses-out-on-hall-of-fame.html">Even last year</a>, I expressed my own "meh" at Carter's lack of enshrinement. Then, something interesting happened. I changed my mind. Sort of.<br /><br />A few weeks ago, I was fortunate enough to be invited to participate in Pro-Football-Reference's <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5810">HOF roundtable discussion</a>. I and the other panelists were asked a series of questions about this year's nominees, including who we thought should be enshrined. The two obvious answers were <span style="font-weight: bold;">Emmitt Smith</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jerry Rice</span>, and then we had three other choices to make.<br /><br />First of all, I don't believe in the "only one player per position" HOF "rule." If you're good enough to be in the HOF, you deserve to go in, regardless of who else is going in. With that in mind, my other three choices were <span style="font-weight: bold;">Dermontti Dawson</span>, arguably one of the top five centers of all time; <span style="font-weight: bold;">Shannon Sharpe</span>, who revolutionized the tight end position; and then, I decided to choose one of the wide receivers who were eligible: Carter, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tim Brown</span>, or <span style="font-weight: bold;">Andre Reed</span>.<br /><br />As much as I was a Cris Carter fan (when he wasn't being a sanctamonius whiner), I decided to approach this problem as objectively as I could, and the yardstick I tried to use to measure the three wideouts was yards per team pass play. I used YPTPP <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2008/12/more-receiver-talk-omg-steve-smith.html">last year</a> to determine the WR who had the best yardage totals given what he had to work with in his team's playcalling. To wit, a WR who accumulates 1,200 yards on a team that throws the ball 400 times (YPTPP = 3.0) performed much better, in my opinion, than one who got 1,200 yards on a team that threw 600 times (YPTPP = 2.0).<br /><br />That's a little tougher to measure over a full season than it is over a single season, though, and there are (obviously) more ways that an already imprecise measurement like this could go wrong. Still, I thought I could at least take a shot at it and see if, as I expected, Carter and Brown measured out about the same while Reed would be left in the dust.<br /><br />I looked over the careers of each man (<a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CartCr00.htm">Carter</a>, <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowTi00.htm">Brown</a>, <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReedAn00.htm">Reed</a>), trying to focus only on the seasons during which they were starters for most or all of their games; in this way, I could be assured that they were on the field for virtually all of their teams' passing plays. In the case of years where a player was a starter but didn't play every game, I would multiply his team's passing plays in that season by a fraction equal to that player's starts/16 in that season. For instance, I only count 12/16, or 3/4 of the Vikings' pass plays in 1992 (when Carter missed four games) against Carter's total.<br /><br />The "active years" for each player:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Carter</span>: 1988-1989, 1991-2001<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Brown</span>: 1992-2003<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Reed</span>: 1985-1989<br /><br />(I skipped Carter's 1990, where he only started five of 16 games. Since he only racked up 416 yards that season, it probably isn't going to hurt his chances any.)<br /><br />Over those time spans, I came up with the following yardage totals and the number of passing plays that player's team had during those spans (with adjustments for missed time, as noted above):<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Carter</span>: 13,336 yards; 6,995 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">1.91</span> YPTPP)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Brown</span>: 13,182 yards; 6,237 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">2.11</span> YPTPP)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Reed</span>: 13,095 yards; 6,957 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">1.88</span> YPTPP)<br /><br />Wow. That's not what I was expecting.<br /><br />"But what about the touchdowns?" you might ask. "That's all Cris Carter did, at least according to Buddy Ryan!" Carter has 130 career touchdowns, to Tim Brown's 100. Not a huge margin, but what if we add in 20 yards per TD (the accepted conversion rate, according to PFR) over the same time spans noted above? That's 124 TDs/2,480 yards for Carter, 86 TDs/1,720 yards for Brown and Reed both.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Carter</span>: 15,816 yards; 6,995 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">2.26</span> YPTPP)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Brown</span>: 14,902 yards; 6,237 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">2.39</span> YPTPP)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Reed</span>: 14,185 yards; 6,957 team pass plays (<span style="font-weight: bold;">2.13</span> YPTPP)<br /><br />That gets Carter closer, but still no HOF cigar. And none of this takes into account Brown's relatively productive first four years and final year in the league (122 catches, 1,752 yards, 14 TDs) or his time spent as a punt returner (326 returns for 3,320 yards and 3 TDs). It's tough for Viking fans to admit, but Cris Carter was simply the third-best wide receiver in this potential HOF class. Granted, the inane voters didn't even vote in the <span style="font-style: italic;">second-best</span> WR, but that's another story.<br /><br />BTW, here's how Jerry Rice stacks up in YPTPP, using his numbers from 1986-1996 and 1998-2003:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Rice</span>: 21,461 yards; 9,164 team pass plays (2.34 YPTPP) (without TDs)<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Rice</span>: 25,261 yards; 9,164 team pass plays (2.76 YPTPP) (with TDs)<br /><br />Yeah, he was pretty good.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-55436186255261740162010-02-13T17:52:00.004-05:002010-02-13T18:34:37.100-05:00Winter vs. Berry: The Results!Here's a post nearly six months in the making. And boy, have I been salivating over this one.<br /><br />Back in November of 2008, <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2008/11/another-gift-win.html">I stumbled across</a> ESPN fantasy "guru" <span style="font-weight: bold;">Matthew Berry</span>'s "bold predictions" for the upcoming season, most of which were so absurd as to be laughable. I wonder if he drafted <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ben Obamanu</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Troy Smith</span> for his fantasy team. Probably not. At the end of the season, I <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/01/vote-him-off-fantasy-island.html">dissected his predictions</a> and the results were, shall we say, less than stellar. Of his 41 "real" predictions, only three came true, an abysmal 7.3% rate.<br /><br />But hey, who was I to talk? It's not like I made any predictions. So, when Berry posted <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=tmr080918">his 2009 predictions</a>, one for each of the 32 NFL teams, I decided <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/08/winter-vs-berry-showdown.html">not just to track them</a> but to try and guess which ones I thought would come true and which ones wouldn't. At the end of the season, I'd see who was more right. He'd score a point for every prediction he got right, and I'd score a point for each of his predictions that I agreed with that was right and each one I disagreed with that was wrong.<br /><br />And now comes the day of reckoning. Here we go! Berry's prediction is below, followed by my Yes/No vote on, on the next line, Berry's and my results -- Y for a correct prediction, N for an incorrect one. When talking about fantasy points and ranks, he's probably talking about the scoring in the ESPN fantasy leagues, but I don't play those and don't have access to them, so I'll be using the scoring and ranks as used on player pages on pro-football-reference.com.<br /><br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="12525" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=12525')">Chris "Beanie" Wells</a> stays healthy enough to get at least 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> 936 yards and 7 TDs. Very close, but I'm going to be strict.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="8442" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=8442')">Roddy White</a> will lead the NFL in receiving yards. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">Bold, but I like it. Jake Delhomme is due for a meltdown, and that'll hurt Steve Smith.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N. </span>He was 13th.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11252" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11252')">Joe Flacco</a> finishes the year as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Flacco is highly overrated because his defense is good.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> According to PFR, he was 17th. And slightly less overrated, but still overrated.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="1056" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=1056')">Terrell Owens</a> finishes the year outside the top 25 fantasy wide receivers. You heard me. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">I think he'll be down a bit, but even Trent Edwards can't screw him up too badly.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Y/N. </span>According to PFR, he was <span style="font-style: italic;">26th</span>. But I'll play fair and count it as a "No" for me.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11247" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11247')">Jonathan Stewart</a> finishes with more fantasy points than <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9613" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9613')">DeAngelo Williams</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Williams is overrated, thanks to his huge TD numbers, but he'll still get more carries and points than Stewart.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Y/N.</span> 193 to 179, according to PFR. At this point, Berry leads me 2-1. Oh noes!<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9643" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9643')">Devin Hester</a> and <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="10475" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=10475')">Greg Olsen</a> combine for 1,800 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> Jay Cutler can't fix the mess that is the Bears' receiving corps.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>Not so much. 1,369 and 11.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="8497" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=8497')">Chris Henry</a> has a better fantasy season than <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="2209" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=2209')">Laveranues Coles</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">Of course, the Jets lost Brett Favre so they don't know how to pass any more.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> I debated tossing out this question entirely in the scorekeeping, considering what happened to Henry falls outside the normal bad luck of an injury. But he was out hurt when he died anyway and probably wouldn't have made up the 82-36 margin Coles "won" the matchup by.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="2136" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=2136')">Jamal Lewis</a> has 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, or the equivalent fantasy points. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Nice to throw in the "or the equivalent" phrase to CYA, but I still think Lewis is done.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>588 yards, zero(!) TDs, and retired. Can't get much more done than that.<br /><br />Without T.O. in town, <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5209" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5209')">Tony Romo</a> has the best fantasy season of his career. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">I think Romo will be fine, but the man had 4,211 yards and 36 TDs two years ago. That's tough to top.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>According to PFR, Romo had 334 fantasy points in 2009, compared to 371 in 2007.<span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br /></span></span><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11461" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11461')">Peyton Hillis</a> will end the year with the most fantasy points of any Broncos running back. You heard me.<span style="font-weight: bold;"> YES. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">Hey someone's gotta run the ball in Denver.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> Hillis had 54 whole rushing yards. Ick.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="12549" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=12549')">Brandon Pettigrew</a> finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy tight end. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Bad/young QBs love a good tight end.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> He was #25.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9475" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9475')">Ryan Grant</a> goes for better than 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> 1,446 yards and 11 TDs. If he gets a point on me for T.O., I claim a point on him here.<br /><br />Eighty-five receptions and 1,000 yards for <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9684" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9684')">Owen Daniels</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Daniels is really good and really underrated, but the Texans still have Andre Johnson.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>Daniels had 40 catches and 519 yards in eight games, so he might have managed it had he stayed healthy.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="10476" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=10476')">Anthony Gonzalez</a>, whose career high in receiving yards is 664, doubles that this season. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">A Colts WR might have 1,300 receiving yards, but it'll be Reggie Wayne.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> But T.O. wasn't my worst WR draft pick in that league! Yes, I drafted Gonzalez, too. Thank heavens I found <span style="font-weight: bold;">Miles Austin</span> a month into the season.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="3636" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=3636')">David Garrard</a> will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year. Just like last season. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> PFR says Garrard was 15th in 2009 and 12th last year. At this point, Berry's on an 0-10 streak.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="8644" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=8644')">Matt Cassel</a> will not be. In fact, he finishes outside the top 15. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Y/Y. </span>This wasn't exactly the toughest prediction. The Chiefs will regret this move for years to come.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9639" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9639')">Anthony Fasano</a>, meet the end zone. You two will find each other 10 times this season. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span> Sure, why not?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> Because he's Anthony Fasano, that's why not! He had 2 TDs.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5603" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5603')">Bernard Berrian</a> gets more than 1,200 yards and nine scores. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">Having Brett Favre means Berrian won't have to settle for those weak-armed QBs like the ones he had last year that limited him to a paltry 20.1 yards per reception, second-best in the league.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>Favre was better than expected, but all his big plays went to Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Berrian had 618 yards and 4 TDs.<br /><br />Eight hundred yards and seven touchdowns for <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="751" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=751')">Joey Galloway</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">If he's healthy Galloway can catch 800 yards' worth of passes from anyone.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N. </span>Yeah, about that. Galloway had 67 yards playing for Pittsburgh and New England.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="10713" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=10713')">Pierre Thomas</a> is a top-10 fantasy running back this year. And Saints fans start wearing berets to games. You heard me. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">But I'll disregard the beret thing.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> He had a nice season but was in a three-way RB committee in New Orleans. #20 according to PFR.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="8524" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=8524')">Brandon Jacobs</a> scores 20 touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">How will the Giants get that close to the end zone with Eli Manning battling Brett Favre for the league interception lead?</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>More like 6 TDs. And FWIW, Eli doubled Brett's interceptions, 14-7.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11264" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11264')">Dustin Keller</a> gets 800 yards, eight touchdowns and is one of the top eight fantasy tight ends this season. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> 522 yards, 2 TDs, and #20. So much for my theory about young QBs and tight ends.<br /><br />More than 1,500 total yards and eight scores (or the fantasy points equivalent) for <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11238" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11238')">Darren McFadden</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">I dunno, but I think we're going to look back in 10 years and find that Felix Jones was the better Alabama RB who entered the league in 2008. Plus, being with the Raiders automatically subtracts 25% (or more) from your fantasy potential</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>602 yards and 1 TD.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="3619" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=3619')">Brian Westbrook</a> plays all 16 games. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO. </span><span style="font-style: italic;">Hasn't happened yet, see no reason to start now.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> 8 games.<br /><br />Trendy preseason favorite <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11257" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11257')">Rashard Mendenhall</a> finishes with fewer fantasy points than <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5880" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5880')">Willie Parker</a>, <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5644" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5644')">Mewelde Moore</a> and <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="8444" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=8444')">Heath Miller</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> Goes to show what we know. Mendenhall had 185 points, Miller 115, Parker 51, Moore 45.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5529" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5529')">Philip Rivers</a> ends up with 225 fantasy points or fewer, which last year would have put him ninth among quarterbacks. (To put that numerically, I think he throws for fewer than 3,400 yards and 25 touchdowns). <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N. </span>I don't know why I was so down on Rivers. He had 4,254 yards, 28 TDs, and 331 fantasy points.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="4260" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=4260')">Shaun Hill</a> wins the starting quarterback job, throws for 3,000-plus yards and has at least 26 total touchdowns. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">He'll be the starter, but he won't get those kind of TD numbers.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> Well, he was the starter for 6 games, notching 943 yards and 5 TDs.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="3546" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=3546')">T.J. Duckett</a> scores double-digit touchdowns. <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5568" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5568')">Julius Jones</a> has more than 1,200 total yards. Both have solid fantasy value this year. You heard me. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">I could believe Jones, but absolutely not Duckett.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>Jones had 885 yards (and yes, I drafted him in that league) and Duckett didn't play.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="11267" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=11267')">Donnie Avery</a> has more than 1,000 yards receiving. And yes, I know he's injured and most likely will miss the start of the season. That's how much I like him and the Rams' revamped offensive line. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO.</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">But I don't like Marc Bulger.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y. </span>589 yards for Avery.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="3591" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=3591')">Antonio Bryant</a> finishes outside the top 30 of fantasy wide receivers. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Y/Y. </span>50th. Not exactly a stretch, prediction-wise.<br /><br /><a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="9307" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=9307')">Nate Washington</a>, on the other hand, finishes inside the top 30. <span style="font-weight: bold;">YES.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/N.</span> 41st.<br /><br />More than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns for <a img_path="http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffllm/08/images/design07/playerpop" game_root="ffl" player_id_type="sportsId" player_id="5606" tab_id="0" team_id="-1" league_id="-1" href="javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=5606')">Chris Cooley</a>. <span style="font-weight: bold;">NO. </span>P<span style="font-style: italic;">ut simply, expecting 1,000 yards from any TE is asking for trouble.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">N/Y.</span> 332 yards and 2 TDs. If he only would have tripled his numbers...<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Results</span><br />Berry nails 4 of his 32 predictions, an awesome 12.5% correct. A few, notably the Wells and Grant predictions, are close enough to essentially be correct, and a few (like Daniels) were ruined by injuries, but, at best, he'd only have about 25% correct. Combined with last year's 3-for-41, that gives him a cumulative 7-for-73, or 9.6% success rate, thus proving that the fantasy prediction business is something pretty much anyone can do. How can I get a job doing this?<br /><br />Meanwhile, I score on 18 of 32, largely on the strength of my calling "BS" on 16 of Berry's 28 incorrect predictions. But even at the start of this exercise, I felt a little funny just going off someone else's work. Ideally, I would have made predictions of my own and, at the end of the season, we would have compared our predictions and seen who got the most right.<br /><br />The problem with that is that it would have been tough to judge the "riskiness" of my predictions. Is it more of a reach to say that Bernard Berrian will have 1,200 yards and 9 scores or that, say, Visanthe Shiancoe will be a top 5 tight end? (He was #6, according to PFR.) I'd hate for my predictions to be too timid (or too risky) and for the comparison to be less equal than it could be. But hey, if Matthew's reading this, I'd love a "prediction competition" for next year. Especially since it looks like I won't have to do much better than a 10% success rate.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-72924138903641548652010-02-11T18:32:00.004-05:002010-02-11T18:54:24.364-05:002009 NFL Predictions Revisited<a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2010/02/2009-vikings-predictions-revisited.html">Earlier this week</a>, I looked back at my Vikings predictions for 2009, and now it's time to revisit my overall predictions for the <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/09/2009-nfl-predictions.html">2009 NFL season</a>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC East</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. New England - y<br />2. Buffalo - x<br />3. Miami<br />4. NY Jets<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC East Actual</span><br />1. New England - y<br />2. NY Jets - x<br />3. Miami<br />4. Buffalo<br /><br />Someone will have to explain to me why I was high on Buffalo. At least I got it right when I said New England will rebound and Miami will regress.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. Pittsburgh - y<br />2. Cleveland<br />3. Baltimore<br />4. Cincinnati<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual</span><br />1. Cincinnati - y<br />2. Baltimore - x<br />3. Pittsburgh<br />4. Cleveland<br /><br />Another stinker of a division, and another "What was I thinking?" regarding Cleveland. I thought at least one of their QBs would be good.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC South </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. Tennessee - y<br />2. Indianapolis - x<br />3. Jacksonville<br />4. Houston<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC South </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual</span><br />1. Indianapolis - y<br />2. Houston<br />3. Tennessee<br />4. Jacksonville<br /><br />My faith in the Titans was sorely misguided, though they still might have the best O-line in football. Titans' QBs were only sacked 3.1% of the time, and their primary running back had a pretty good year, I heard. They can even make <span style="font-weight: bold;">Vince Young</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Kerry Collins</span> look passable.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC West </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. San Diego - y<br />2. Oakland<br />3. Denver<br />4. Kansas City<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual<br /></span>1. San Diego - y<br />2. Denver<br />3. Kansas City<br />4. Oakland<br /><br />Hey, there's one division champ I got right! I also said, "Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City could all finish under .500," and Denver just barely avoided that sentence, with an 8-8 record (after a 6-0 start, a collapse of Vikings-esque proportions).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC East</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. Philadelphia - y<br />2. Dallas - x<br />3. NY Giants<br />4. Washington<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC East Actual</span><br />1. Dallas - y<br />2. Philadelphia - x<br />3. NY Giants<br />4. Washington<br /><br />Not too bad, and very nearly perfect, if not for Philly's collapse in the final game of the season against Dallas (which I'm not complaining about, mind you). "And I think that the loss of T.O. won't hurt the Cowboys as much as people think." Granted, unearthing <span style="font-weight: bold;">Miles Austin</span> helped a bit.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. Minnesota - y<br />2. Green Bay<br />3. Chicago<br />4. Detroit<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual</span><br />1. Minnesota - y<br />2. Green Bay - x<br />3. Chicago<br />4. Detroit<br /><br />Spot on! Except for Green Bay making the playoffs, though I did say that "I admit that I'm very close to picking Green Bay as my wild card, but I think the defense will let them down just a little too often this year." The defense gelled, and the Packers were (sadly) very good.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC South </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><br />1. Atlanta - y<br />2. New Orleans - x<br />3. Carolina<br />4. Tampa Bay<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC South </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual</span><br /> 1. New Orleans - y<br />2. Atlanta<br />3. Carolina<br />4. Tampa Bay<br /><br />"New Orleans has no defense and no running game." Yeah, they mostly fixed that, and it took them all the way to the championship. And how on earth did Carolina win eight games? Oh yeah, by benching <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jake Delhomme</span>...<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">NFC West </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Predictions</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />1. Seattle - y<br />2. Arizona<br />3. San Francisco<br />4. St. Louis<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AFC North</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual<br /></span>1. Arizona - y<br />2. San Francisco<br />3. Seattle<br />4. St. Louis<br /><br />So maybe Arizona <span style="font-style: italic;">is </span>for real, after all. Well, at least until <span style="font-weight: bold;">Kurt Warner</span> retires -- oh, hang on... "St. Louis might fight with Tampa Bay for the #1 draft pick." Silly me, I forgot about Detroit sneaking in with the #2 pick.<br /><br />My mantra, as always, was that I must pick four new division winners each year. There were, in fact, five new division winners in 2009. If I was to take a very early look at next year, I'd say that Arizona, Cincinnati, and Minnesota (depending on the Vikings' QB situation, though with Green Bay's solid play, it may not matter) will have the toughest time repeating, with New England and Dallas (challenged by the Jets and Eagles, respectively) could also have issues. Those predictions are probably about as useful as <a href="http://www.comcast.net/sports/russakoffrules/33156/superbowlxlvodds/">2011 Super Bowl odds</a>, but hey, it's all in fun, right? Nobody's really being held accountable for any of this, are they?<br /><br /><a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/08/winter-vs-berry-showdown.html">Wait until this weekend</a>.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-8970027703380543762010-02-08T18:54:00.003-05:002010-02-08T19:43:31.465-05:002009 Vikings predictions revisitedSo, <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/09/2009-minnesota-vikings-preview.html">how'd I do</a>?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Quarterback Prediction:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre:</span> 3,300 passing yards, 21 TDs, 19 Int.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Quarterback Actual:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre:</span> 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 Int.<br /><br />So I was a little off, but be honest -- you never saw this coming, did you?<br /><br />There's little more that can be said about Favre's remarkable season, mostly coming after he crossed the age-40 threshold. I did somewhat predict his unpredictability, saying "he could be great, chucking 25-30 TDs, and he could be awful, chucking 25-30 interceptions." Technically, I was wrong, as he exceeded 30 TDs, but I wasn't exactly complaining. In fact, it was the most TDs Favre has chucked since 1997, and he set a personal mark in completion percentage and lowest interception percentage. Makes you wonder what he'll be like <a href="http://www.hulu.com/adzone/watch#50032702">in 10 years</a>.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Running Back Prediction:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson:</span> 1,450 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 14 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Chester Taylor:</span> 500 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 TDs<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Running Back Actual:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson:</span> 1,383 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards, 18 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Chester Taylor:</span> 338 rushing yards, 389 receiving yards, 2 TDs<br /><br />Here's one where I wasn't too far off, though Adrian Peterson's newly found skill as a receiver was a pleasant surprise. Believing that Favre wouldn't pass particularly well, I predicted higher rushing numbers for the Peterson/Taylor duo, which received 92.6% of all carries by Vikings running backs (if one counts Jeff Dugan and Percy Harvin as running backs). Overall, I predicted 2,450 total yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs for the duo, and they managed 2,546 and 20, so I'll call this one a win. If I was keeping score, that is.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Receivers Prediction:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bernard Berrian:</span> 55 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sidney Rice: </span>25 catches, 350 yards, 1 TD<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bobby Wade: </span>40 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Percy Harvin:</span> 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Visanthe Shiancoe:</span> 35 catches, 550 yards, 6 TDs<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Receivers Actual:</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sidney Rice: </span>83 catches, 1,312 yards, 8 TD<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Percy Harvin:</span> 60 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Bernard Berrian:</span> 55 catches, 618 yards, 4 TDs<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><span style="font-weight: bold;">Visanthe Shiancoe:</span> 53 catches, 556 yards, 11 TDs<br /><br />I wrote, "Someone from the Vikings' second tier of receivers will have to step up this year... Sidney Rice shows occasional flashes but isn't reliable." Well, he's reliable now, and his Pro Bowl season definitely counts as "stepping up." If Favre retires, it'll be interesting to see how Rice's numbers respond, but he definitely proved me wrong this season.<br /><br />If the previous category counted as a "win," this one definitely goes down as a "loss." I did somehow nail Bernard Berrian's 55 receptions and came within six yards of Shiancoe's yardage total, but Rice and Harvin exceeded all expectations and Berrian managed just a puzzling 11.2 yards per reception, after averaging nearly double that (20.1) in 1998. Other than the running backs, no other Viking receiver had more than 10 catches, and Bobby Wade had 36 catches for 367 yards and three TDs -- for Kansas City.<br /><br /><br />I don't have the energy right now to do a piecemeal dissection of the offensive line, special teams, and defense, so here's a Cliff's Notes looks at some of my best -- and worst -- predictions about those units for 2009.<br /><br />"If Loadholt and Sullivan can get it done, the O-line could be one of the best in the league."<br /><br />I've already discussed <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/12/theory-287-why-vikings-cant-run-ball.html">my opinion of the offensive line</a>, which failed to open pretty much any holes for the second half of the season, even while it improved in pass protection. For the record, the Vikings were a mere 22nd in the league in yards per carry, and Vikings QBs were sacked on 5.8% of their dropbacks, 13th in the league. The line was average, at best.<br /><br />"this has the makings to be a dominant defensive line, playing equally well against the run and the pass."<br /><br />It had its moments, good and bad, but the defense began and ended, for much of the season, with the play of the defensive line. The starting foursome of Allen, Williams, Williams, and Edwards racked up 31 sacks, more than eight other entire <span style="font-style: italic;">teams</span>.<br /><br />"He'll probably never be considered an elite linebacker, but as long as he flies around the field like he does, I'll be OK with his lack of recognition."<br /><br />That was in reference to Chad Greenway, who did indeed continue to fly around the field, leading the team in tackles.<br /><br />"Unfortunately, as shown last year when Henderson went down (<span style="font-weight: bold;">Napoleon Harris</span>!), the team's depth at linebacker is almost non-existant."<br /><br />For a rookie, Jaspar Brinkley did an adequate job filling in when EJ Henderson went down in December, and, depending on how Henderson's recovery from a broken leg goes, he might have more of a chance to build on his rookie season going forward.<br /><br />"That could be a questionable decision in the future, with Winfield having just turned 32 and Griffin not being able to keep up with elite receivers at times last year, but both should provide at least decent play for a couple more years, provided the defensive line can keep quarterbacks on their toes."<br /><br />By the end of the season, Antoine Winfield was a nickel corner and Cedric Griffin, while decent, again struggled in coverage when the defensive line couldn't produce pressure (though the weak safety play of Tyrell Johnson and Madeiu Williams contributed to these difficulties). With three of their four defensive backs (all but Johnson) locked into big-money, long-term deals (though Winfield's has a semi-"out" if he becomes a fifth DB), improvement in this area might prove difficult.<br /><br />"Suffice to say, Longwell's earned his keep as a Viking."<br /><br />Amen to that. In his four years in purple, Longwell has converted on 86.5% of field goal opportunities, including 26 of 28 this year. Tack on a league-high 54 extra-point attempts, and you have a 132-point season, the highest of the 13-year veteran's career. "Four more years!"<br /><br />"the Vikings are turning to rookies Percy Harvin as their primary kick returner and Percy Harvin as the punt returner."<br /><br />I'm not quite sure what I meant there, but Percy Harvin as a kick returner worked out fairly well, I'd say.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish:</span><br />11-5, 1st in NFC North<br /><br />Only off by one game, and that was with Brett Favre being mediocre. I think I expected more out of the defense and the running game to compensate, but however we got there, I'll take it.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-87559483947484199092010-01-27T19:01:00.003-05:002010-01-27T19:30:21.273-05:00Letting it sink inAfter a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span>. Or maybe not.<br /><br />This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. <span style="font-style: italic;">Anything</span>. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted <span style="font-style: italic;">right now</span>. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brad Childress</span> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AsW2n8n.uUFBcyXKx8_Os.ZDubYF?slug=ap-vikings-movingon&prov=ap&type=lgns">won't set a deadline</a> for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)<br /><br />Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Ryan Longwell</span> is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even <span style="font-weight: bold;">Troy Aikman</span> didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when <span style="font-style: italic;">Troy Aikman</span> thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up <span style="font-weight: bold;">Reggie Bush</span> on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.<br /><br />No, the blame has to go around to guys like <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span>, <span style="font-weight: bold;">Percy Harvin</span>, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Bernard Berrian</span>, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.<br /><br />It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200101140nyg.htm">41-0 thrashing</a> at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199901170min.htm">1999 loss</a> to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.<br /><br />But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.<br /><br />Wait 'til next year.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-34068115854356813382010-01-24T21:55:00.002-05:002010-01-24T22:20:46.193-05:00NFC Championship Game: OvertimeSaints win the toss. C'mon, pick six...<br /><br />They're making way too much of this "inexperienced kicker" thing.<br /><br />14:52. Well, that's not an optimal return. And Cedric Griffin's hurt. Yay.<br /><br />14:07. If the Saints want to run twice when we lose our starting corner, that's fine with me.<br /><br />13:12. Oh Tyrell Johnson, if you were only skilled, you might have grabbed that deflection.<br /><br />12:56. When you blitz like that and get no pressure, you're in trouble. And I don't think Devery Henderson was ever touched. Got away with one there.<br /><br />12:06. Pierre Thomas almost lost the ball. Now, does he only get the spot from where he semi-lost it?<br /><br />I hope we'll see Brett in Miami, too.<br /><br />Yeah, that's tough to overturn. Well, they're at the 41 and need about 10 more to put it in semi-comfortable field goal range.<br /><br />11:45. Flag? Oh, hell. The receiver was diving back for the ball himself, he wasn't interfered with! Very, very weak call.<br /><br />11:40. Loss of four? I'll take that!<br /><br />10:49. Gain of 12 over the middle. That'll just about do it. Or was that an incompletion? How about a review?<br /><br />Strange things we've seen in this game: 6 Viking fumbles, Brett Favre making bad plays, and Brad Childress using a timeout smartly.<br /><br />"The ruling on the field will stand." Dammit.<br /><br />10:19. And here we go. 40-yard field goal attempt to win the game. Let's hope for a repeat of Antoine Winfield's blocked FG against the Saints last year.<br /><br />And now, Brad Childress uses a timeout stupidly. All is right with the world.<br /><br />10:15. Nope. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">31-28 Saints.</span><br /><br /><br />Well, that's it. Amazing that we made as many mistakes as we did and still had a chance in the end. Good-bye Brett. I hate you slightly less than I did at the start of the season.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-65215047180200792442010-01-24T21:03:00.003-05:002010-01-24T21:54:58.810-05:00NFC Championship Game: Fourth QuarterSomehow, I'm guessing the Saints will blitz.<br /><br />14:53. I'd be happy enough with a Percy Harvin/Chester Taylor RB committee in this quarter.<br /><br />14:10. Or maybe I wouldn't.<br /><br />Seeing Favre limp around there worries me, though. He will never, <span style="font-style: italic;">ever </span>take himself out of a game, no matter how much he's hurting. On the one hand, that's heroic, on the other, it can be really bad if he's too hurt to play effectively.<br /><br />12:39. Third down and again, close but no sack. Touchdown. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">28-21 Saints.</span><br /><br />12:32. Is Favre rolling out really a good idea?<br /><br />11:45. Peterson hit by -- yep, Darren Sharper.<br /><br />11:17. Oh dear. We're starting to see Bad Brett. That should have been a pick.<br /><br />11:05. I didn't think there was any chance that pass would work. Awesome catch by Bernard Berrian.<br /><br />9:37. Oh. My. God. Time to break out the stick-um.<br /><br />8:18. Head-up play by Brees, and could have been amazing for us.<br /><br />On the bright side, all these fumbles by the Vikings means we aren't punting to Reggie Bush. (Hey, I'm reaching here...)<br /><br />7:42. Last year, I was scared every time Tarvaris Jackson dropped back. That's how I feel now whenever Adrian Peterson -- or pretty much anyone else -- has the ball.<br /><br />7:06. Big-time stiff-arm by Shiancoe!<br /><br />6:29. Peterson juked a little too hard there, basically took himself down.<br /><br />5:45. That could have been PI against Berrian or Porter, IMHO. Or maybe neither, after seeing the replay.<br /><br />4:58. Now for some defense. Please, some defense. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">28-28 tie.</span><br /><br />4:52. Good kick coverage. That's the first step.<br /><br />My fingers are actually trembling.<br /><br />4:43. OMG sack! If only we could have recovered...<br /><br />3:07. I think I'm more nervous on 3rd-and-18s than I am on 3rd-and-4s.<br /><br />2:37. Two minutes, 37 seconds left. Time for a classic Favre drive.<br /><br />I don't think even Katy perry gets me this excited.<br /><br />1:55. Is this really the time to run the ball? We can't possibly be playing for overtime. Tell me we aren't playing for overtime.<br /><br />1:43. Bernard Berrian is having the game of his life.<br /><br />1:31. Perfect pass by Favre, perfect catch by Rice.<br /><br />1:06. 33 yard line. That's just about in FG range!<br /><br />0:19. Adrian, you can't stop and go here. Go forward, get two yards, if that's all you can do. It's fine, really. He just wants to hit a home run every play. And we really better pass on third down.<br /><br />0:19. 12 men in the huddle? What is that?!<br /><br />0:07. <span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:180%;" >DO NOT THROW LATE OVER THE MIDDLE!</span><br /><br />I mean, it's not like a 45- to 55-yard field goal would be automatic, but at least give it a chance! On to overtime...Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-18536008754453546012010-01-24T20:19:00.003-05:002010-01-24T21:03:45.001-05:00NFC Championship Game: Third QuarterThese first-half stats are brought to you by Mass Effect 2.<br /><br />14:49. I wish Commander Sheperd had been on the field. He/she would have actually tackled Courtney Roby better than Tyrell Johnson. Or maybe would have just shot him, depending on whether he/she was a paragon or a renegade.<br /><br />14:04. And Pierre Thomas shakes off Pat Williams(!) for a six-yard gain to put the Saints in the red zone.<br /><br />12:56. I'm surprised more teams don't use that extra lineman as a blocker. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">21-14 Saints.</span><br /><br />12:56. Yeah, that was a pretty bad call on that touchdown.<br /><br />10:54. Naufahu Tahi is my hero!<br /><br />10:20. And so is Visanthe Shiancoe!<br /><br />9:37. Anthony Herrera whiffs on his block. Possibly because he was too tired from getting outside because <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/12/theory-287-why-vikings-cant-run-ball.html">he's really fat</a>.<br /><br />8:15. This is the Visanthe Shiancoe drive! (and a <span style="font-style: italic;">slight </span>hold on the defender)<br /><br />7:35. Adrian held on to <span style="font-style: italic;">that </span>one. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">21-21 tie.</span><br /><br />Not that I think he shows favorites, but I wonder who Roger Goodell's favorite team is. He has to have one, right?<br /><br />7:22. I think that's the first official "hit" on Drew Brees.<br /><br />6:40. False start. Phew.<br /><br />6:29. I always thought it was a rule that a punt returner never, ever goes inside the 10. Ever. But I've seen it seemingly a ton this year.<br /><br />5:39. That's it. <span style="font-style: italic;">Take Adrian Peterson out of the game</span>. Now.<br /><br />4:09. That's a really dubious penalty. I used to call those Roughing the Favre when they were called against us and they made me crazy. And you know it's dubious when <span style="font-style: italic;">Troy Aikman</span> thinks it's a bad call.<br /><br />1:59. Triple coverage. Interception. Ack.<br /><br />Addendum: He hit him below the waist! That's a penalty, dammit! A stupid penalty, but a penalty!<br /><br />And the fourth quarter begins. With Tarvaris Jackson possibly under center. (And Katy Perry makes me feel dirty.)Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-28071158192134629582010-01-24T19:24:00.004-05:002010-01-24T20:13:19.223-05:00NFC Championship Game: Second Quarter14:33. Even Brett's earplugs are purple. How cute!<br /><br />14:07. And here's Chris Myers with an update on the purple earplugs. That's some reporting!<br /><br />13:29. And now, a punt. Hold me, I'm frightened.<br /><br />13:21. Fair catch. Phew.<br /><br />13:03. 3rd and 10, someone get a hand on Brees, and it's a 28-yard gain. Nothing infuriates me more than an almost-sack on third down.<br /><br />11:00. When #64 goes in motion, you know it's a running play.<br /><br />10:30. A touchdown on that drive seemed almost inevitable. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">14-14 tie.</span><br /><br />I ate about 2/3 of a pizza for dinner about an hour and a half ago. That's suddenly seeming like an unwise decision.<br /><br />10:22. So maybe they don't always run when #64 goes in motion...<br /><br />9:44. Brett Favre leads the league in fake-passes-followed-by-fake-handoff-followed-by-a-pass-es.<br /><br />9:03. And Sidney Rice's arms grow to six feet long!<br /><br />8:24. Adrian Peterson and Darren Sharper are joined at the hip today.<br /><br />5:22. Lynell Hamilton isn't going to gain a yard on 3rd-and-1 against our defense. I mean, really.<br /><br />4:29. Gratuitous Deanna Favre shot. She's in the stands? She couldn't get a box?<br /><br />3:51. We are going to need more than 14 points against the Saints. We really are.<br /><br />3:36. Oh, Ben Leber. I would have forgotten all the nasty things I said about you on the Pierre Thomas touchdown if you'd intercepted that pass.<br /><br />3:28. 3rd and 1. Bet they don't give it to Lynell Hamilton.<br /><br />2:44. Reggie Bush, meet Pat Williams.<br /><br />2:07. So, when the Viking jumped into the neutral zone, why didn't the Saints snap it? That was the point!<br /><br />I'm spending my downtime looking at pictures of Katy Perry. I think I like the one in the <a href="http://www.mademan.com/chickipedia/katy-perry/photosgallery/Katyperry-1_666-jpg.html">green bikini</a> the best.<br /><br />1:52. You can't advance a muff, <span style="font-style: italic;">and </span>the whistle was blown. That's a penalty, Saints fans. The ball was dead.<br /><br />1:38. <span style="font-style: italic;">Big </span>third-down toss and catch by Berrian and Favre.<br /><br />1:24. Brett's accuracy on downfield throws is...lacking. Berrian was wide open.<br /><br />1:13. REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE!<br /><br />0:56. Oh, phooey. And he had a nice hole to get to the end zone. Crap, crap, crap.<br /><br />And that's the half. Back to Katy.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-51098433503456752922010-01-24T18:39:00.004-05:002010-01-24T19:41:00.495-05:00Stream of consciousness blogging: NFC Championship GameIt's like the comments section of a post, but only I'm invited.<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /></span>Joe Buck calls the Superdome "the loudest building in football." He clearly forgot where he was last week.<br /><br />14:50. The key to the Vikings' offense is, obviously, the early inclusion of Jim Kleinsasser.<br /><br />13:34. There was a time when I would have been upset at four straight passes to start the game. Not any more.<br /><br />11:35. That screen looked good until John Sullivan missed not one, but two defenders.<br /><br />10:50. An Adrian Peterson sighting!<br /><br />9:35. Whoop! Sorry about that, Darren Sharper! <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">7-0 Minnesota</span>.<br /><br />Six months ago, I hated the Brett Favre Sears commercials. Now I kinda like them. That's very, very depressing.<br /><br />8:55. Really can't give Drew Brees that much time, even if it was incomplete.<br /><br />7:51. K-Will <span style="font-style: italic;">almost </span>tipped that one.<br /><br />7:00. When Pat Williams jumps offsides, it should probably be a 10-yard penalty.<br /><br />6:30. Missed tackle by Ben Leber = Saints touchdown. <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">7-7 tie.</span><br /><br />On the other hand, those "tiny hands" Burger King commercials still freak me out.<br /><br />6:15. OK, maybe they could run just a little bit.<br /><br />6:11. Sure looked like there was contact...ah, there we go.<br /><br />6:03. Bernard Berrian finds the spin button on his controller!<br /><br />5:37. They call a personal foul on hitting Harvin, but not Favre? Uh...(amended: OK, so it wasn't)<br /><br />4:20. Favre won't need a uniform if we play another game, he'll be purple all over.<br /><br />2:53. That might have worked if Phil Loadholt <a href="http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/12/theory-287-why-vikings-cant-run-ball.html">wasn't 800 pounds</a>.<br /><br />2:11. Favre. Rice. TOUCHDOWN!!! <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">14-7 Minnesota.</span><br /><br />2:05. Blatant hold against Tyrell Johnson on the kickoff return that goes uncalled.<br /><br />1:27. Man, that reverse could have been outstanding!<br /><br />And the Vikings take over at the 15 as we go to the second quarter. This post is already too long, so I'll start another!Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-58490371005271244392010-01-24T16:55:00.003-05:002010-01-24T17:12:55.495-05:00Don't expect big numbers from Adrian PetersonOne final thought before the big game...<br /><br />The common belief among just about everyone is that <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span> will finally have a big game, one he hasn't had in a while, against the Saints and their so-so rushing defense (4.49 yards per carry allowed, 26th in the league). Problem is, we've been waiting for AP to have that kind of day for over two months. He's only had one game with more than four yards per carry -- and that was just nine carries for 54 yards against the Giants in the last game of the season -- since running over the Lions to the tune of 18 carries for 133 yards (7.39 YPC) on Nov. 15.<br /><br />In 17 games this year (including last week's playoff game against Dallas), Peterson has only faced one team that's allowed more than the Saints' 4.49 yards per carry during the regular season, and that was the Browns back in week one. However, five other teams averaged more than 4.4 YPC against, so those are probably comparable. The exact numbers are:<br /><br /><table style="width: 395px; height: 122px;"><tbody><tr></tr><tr><td style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Opponent<br /><br /></td><td style="font-weight: bold; text-align: center;">AP YPC<br /></td><td style="font-weight: bold; text-align: center;">Team YPC vs.<br /></td><td style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></td><td style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="font-weight: bold;">Cleveland</td><td style="text-align: center;">7.20</td><td style="text-align: center;">4.57</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Arizona<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">1.46<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.49<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Carolina<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">2.92<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.44<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Detroit<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">6.13<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.42<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Detroit<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">7.39<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.42<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="font-weight: bold;">St. Louis<br /></td><td style="text-align: center;">4.50</td><td style="text-align: center;">4.40</td><td><br /></td><td><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Chicago<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.40<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.33<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Chicago<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.92<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.33<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">NY Giants<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">6.00<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.19<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Seattle<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.42<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.15<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Dallas<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">2.42<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.97<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Cincinnati<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.73<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.94<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Pittsburgh<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.83<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.87<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">San Francisco<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">4.47<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.64<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Green Bay<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">2.20<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.59<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: bold;">Green Bay<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.88<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top; text-align: center;">3.59<br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr><tr><td style="font-weight: bold;">Baltimore</td><td style="text-align: center;">6.50</td><td style="text-align: center;">3.43</td><td style="font-style: italic;"><br /></td><td style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Four of the "easiest" rush defenses AP faced -- Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago twice -- came in the second half of the season, and he averaged 1.46, 2.92, 3.40, and 3.92 yards per carry in those games. So I'm less than optimistic about the predictions regarding his "sure-fire" breakout game against the Saints today. If the Vikings win, it will likely be how they've won for most of the second half of the season: with the defense and on the arm of <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span>.<br /><br />Hey, you don't suppose we could play the Lions again, do you?Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-69380091011054125402010-01-21T19:19:00.005-05:002010-01-21T19:44:03.197-05:00NFC Championship Game FactsThis year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl will be either a team that hasn't been to the big game in 33 years or a team that has <span style="font-style: italic;">never </span>been there. Either way, that's kinda cool.<br /><br />The most points ever scored in an NFC Championship Game is 66, when the 49ers beat the Cowboys 38-28 in January 1995. There's a reasonable chance that will be exceeded on Sunday.<br /><br />Only the Cowboys (14), 49ers (12), and Rams (9) have been in more NFC Championship Games than the Vikings (8). The 49ers and Cowboys have squared off five times in the game.<br /><br />Road teams are 13-26 in the NFC Championship Game.<br /><br />The last time <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span> was in an NFC Championship Game (1998), <span style="font-weight: bold;">Drew Brees </span>was a sophomore at Purdue and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Percy Harvin</span> was nine years old.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Chester Taylor</span> had more combined rush-receive yards (727) in 2009 than <span style="font-weight: bold;">Reggie Bush</span> (725).<br /><br />I am officially tired of typing "NFC Championship Game."Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-60507948415996295482010-01-17T20:26:00.004-05:002010-01-17T20:48:01.391-05:00And then there were fourWell, you can forget about talks of "hot" teams and streaks and all that nonsense and how much impact it has on the playoffs. Teams on 11- and four-game winning streaks (San Diego and Dallas) lost, while the four teams that won this weekend were a combined 4-8 in their last three games of the regular season. Among them were the Vikings, who put a 34-3 throttling on the Dallas Cowboys to go to their first NFC Championship game since the 2000 season.<br /><br />At this point, I don't even care that the Vikings are a pass-first team and are almost completely impotent at running the football. You'll still hear the usual tripe about how the Saints "must stop <span style="font-weight: bold;">Adrian Peterson</span>," but he's currently playing like, at best, the third-best player on the offense, behind <span style="font-weight: bold;">Brett Favre</span> and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Sidney Rice</span>. Even <span style="font-weight: bold;">Chester Taylor</span> looked better the few times he touched the ball on Sunday.<br /><br />On the bright side, the Vikings will play a team next Sunday that was 22nd against the run in total yardage and 26th in yards per carry, and gave up a 70-yard run on the first play from scrimmage on yesterday's game. The Saints, in fact, were 18th in scoring defense and 25th in total yards allowed (the Vikings were ninth in both categories), and, for all their offensive firepower, scored just 40 points more than the Vikings, or less than a field goal per game. And while it is a road game, playing in a dome suits the Vikings just fine. This has all the potential makings of a high-scoring, but close game.<br /><br />But that's the future. For now, I'm just basking in the heady glow of knowing that the Vikings are just 60 minutes away from their first Super Bowl in 33 years. And despite my better judgment, I'm actually believing it can happen.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5475357521701869265.post-75064306193396617532010-01-13T18:58:00.003-05:002010-01-13T19:21:06.523-05:00Streakers come to MinnesotaIf I was completely impartial and unbiased, I would probably say that the Vikings are the most likely home team to lose this weekend. Dallas has been hot for the last month, the Vikings have been hit-or-miss, and <span style="font-weight: bold;">Tony Romo</span> is that type of elusive quarterback who gives our pass rushers nightmares. (Remember the <span style="font-weight: bold;">Jeff Garcia</span> Tampa Bay game in 2008? Yeah, I've tried to forget it, too.) The oddsmakers would <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds">seem to agree</a> with this, making the Vikings just a 2.5-point favorite, the lowest of all the home teams.<br /><br />Fortunately, I'm not impartial and unbiased. Well, I am, and I do think the Vikings will struggle, but the team that I think will really have troubles this week is New Orleans because they've struggled even worse than the Vikings down the stretch.<br /><br />Here are the results of the Saints' last five games:<br /><br />23-10 loss @ Carolina (where the starters barely played)<br />20-17 loss vs. Tampa Bay<br />24-17 loss vs. Dallas<br />26-23 win @ Atlanta<br />33-30 win @ Washington<br /><br />The tight Atlanta win came without having to face <span style="font-weight: bold;">Matt Ryan</span> or <span style="font-weight: bold;">Michael Turner</span> and the Washington win...well, it was against Washington. That's five straight weeks of subpar performances, including two wins against teams they should have dominated. And then there was that Tampa Bay loss.<br /><br />So I think Arizona has a better than average chance of beating the Saints, especially on the fast surface of the Superdome. So, what about those "hot" Cowboys? Well, they beat New Orleans, which, as previously mentioned, may or may not be impressive. Then they shut out Washington -- no great feat -- and twice hammered Philadelphia, which came into their week 17 contest on a six-game winning streak. So much for being "hot."<br /><br />A few years ago, I did a study on streaking teams in MLB and the NFL to see if there really was any correlation between being on a win streak and whether a team would win its next game. The correlation in baseball was virtually nil. In 2005, a team that had won six or more games actually won its next game <span style="font-style: italic;">less </span>than 50% of the time. Football, with its smaller sample size, was a little more volatile. Over the five seasons I looked at, a team with a four-game or higher win streak was 107-54 (.664) in its next game.<br /><br />So, what's all that mean? That Dallas's win streak means less than the fact that the team is talented. So are the Vikings. (And consider that San Diego, on an 11-game winning streak, is still not favored to win the Super Bowl.) I think the "buzz" over the Cowboys playing well in December and January and the Vikings being so-so over that same time span is enough to influence people to think that the Cowboys are the better team. But we're all too smart for that, right?<br /><br />Let's hope so.Jasonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09834181305584355651noreply@blogger.com0