The common belief among just about everyone is that Adrian Peterson will finally have a big game, one he hasn't had in a while, against the Saints and their so-so rushing defense (4.49 yards per carry allowed, 26th in the league). Problem is, we've been waiting for AP to have that kind of day for over two months. He's only had one game with more than four yards per carry -- and that was just nine carries for 54 yards against the Giants in the last game of the season -- since running over the Lions to the tune of 18 carries for 133 yards (7.39 YPC) on Nov. 15.
In 17 games this year (including last week's playoff game against Dallas), Peterson has only faced one team that's allowed more than the Saints' 4.49 yards per carry during the regular season, and that was the Browns back in week one. However, five other teams averaged more than 4.4 YPC against, so those are probably comparable. The exact numbers are:
Opponent | AP YPC | Team YPC vs. | ||
| Cleveland | 7.20 | 4.57 | ||
| Arizona | 1.46 | 4.49 | ||
| Carolina | 2.92 | 4.44 | ||
| Detroit | 6.13 | 4.42 | ||
| Detroit | 7.39 | 4.42 | ||
| St. Louis | 4.50 | 4.40 | ||
| Chicago | 3.40 | 4.33 | ||
| Chicago | 3.92 | 4.33 | ||
| NY Giants | 6.00 | 4.19 | ||
| Seattle | 3.42 | 4.15 | ||
| Dallas | 2.42 | 3.97 | ||
| Cincinnati | 3.73 | 3.94 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 3.83 | 3.87 | ||
| San Francisco | 4.47 | 3.64 | ||
| Green Bay | 2.20 | 3.59 | ||
| Green Bay | 3.88 | 3.59 | ||
| Baltimore | 6.50 | 3.43 |
Four of the "easiest" rush defenses AP faced -- Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago twice -- came in the second half of the season, and he averaged 1.46, 2.92, 3.40, and 3.92 yards per carry in those games. So I'm less than optimistic about the predictions regarding his "sure-fire" breakout game against the Saints today. If the Vikings win, it will likely be how they've won for most of the second half of the season: with the defense and on the arm of Brett Favre.
Hey, you don't suppose we could play the Lions again, do you?
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