Tuesday, October 28, 2008

TYA after week 8

With the Vikings' season about to go completely down the tubes (but here's some comedy if you need it), I decided to crunch some numbers to while away my sorrow. Remember this set of posts back in January?


No? Then go back and read them. Or, if you just want the Cliff's Notes version, they were my attempt to create a new quarterback rating system that took every aspect of a quarterback's play -- including rushing, sacks, and fumbles -- into account. Part of it was my desire to prove to everyone that Jon Kitna was an exceedingly mediocre quarterback, despite his throwing for 4,000 yards every season, because he threw a ton of times and took too many sacks. I was also trying to give Tarvaris Jackson as much credit as I could for his rushing prowess.

But in general, I wanted to create a system that accounted for every possible stat a quarterback could accumulate, because there was no other formula out there that did so. Passer rating completely ignores rushing and sacks, which are as much the offensive line's "fault" as it is the O-line's "credit" when a QB has all day to throw and nails a receiver 50 yards downfield. If one should count for the QB, shouldn't the other count against him? At least a little bit?

After that brief introduction, I won't go too much more into the methodology -- you can read the old posts if you want to learn more. In any case, here are the TYAs for every quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts in 2008:

1Philip Rivers7.41
2Chad Pennington7.40
3Drew Brees6.95
4Tony Romo6.70
5Jason Campbell6.67
6Donovan McNabb6.43
7Aaron Rodgers6.42
8Jay Cutler6.36
9Eli Manning6.27
10Kyle Orton6.06
11Jake Delhomme6.04
12Kurt Warner6.01
13Trent Edwards5.92
14Matt Ryan5.84
15David Garrard5.61
16Jeff Garcia5.42
17Matt Schaub5.38
18Kerry Collins5.31
19Peyton Manning5.15
20Dan Orlovsky4.87
21Matt Cassel4.49
22Gus Frerotte4.42
23Marc Bulger4.32
24JaMarcus Russell4.28
25Ben Roethlisberger3.98
26Brett Favre3.89
27Matt Hasselbeck3.84
28Derek Anderson3.67
29Joe Flacco3.61
30Carson Palmer3.51
31J.T. O'Sullivan3.51
32Tyler Thigpen3.42
33Brian Griese3.40
34Jon Kitna3.24
35Ryan Fitzpatrick1.84

The average for these 35 quarterbacks is 5.25. (Recall that I can't figure a league average without looking at every QB's rushing numbers, which aren't available in handy tabular form.)

Phillip Rivers, who also leads the league in passer rating, just barely edges out Chad Pennington, of all people, as the top performer so far this year. Pennington's only thrown three picks and fumbled once this year, helping him beat out MVP candidate Drew Brees, who's tossed seven picks and coughed it up six times. Meanwhile, the Dan Orlovsky/Jon Kitna debate doesn't look like much of a choice here, though neither answer is good.

Ben Roethlisberger, notorious for taking too many sacks, takes a big hit when those are taken into account. Granted, he's currently the #18 quarterback in passer rating, so maybe being knocked down to #25 here isn't such a Humpty-Dumpty-esque fall. The league leader in sacks allowed, J.T. O'Sullivan (32) is helped by exceptional rushing numbers (29 carries for 146 yards), though he's still awful. Meanwhile, Kerry Collins, who has still remarkably only been sacked once in 171 dropbacks is just barely above average (5.31) but still shockingly better than Peyton Manning (5.15). And you think the Bengals miss Carson Palmer? Imagine how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick would look if he hadn't rushed for 121 yards on 21 carries?

For Vikings fans, Gus Frerotte clocks in solidly below average (4.42), right between Matt Cassel and Marc Bulger. Tarvaris Jackson, with 76 "touches" (passes + sacks + rushes) is virtually the same, at 4.37. There's really no right answer to the Vikings' quarterback situation. Hey, Kerry Collins is a free agent next year! (Yes, I'm kidding.)

1 comment:

Lester's Legends said...

The Vikes have averaged 100 more passing yards and have won more games with Frerotte at the helm, but an upgrade is in order at season's end. I still think they should have got Garcia a couple years ago.