Running the numbers, week 6

Twice last year, after week 4 and week 11, I ran a little analysis of how teams were doing with the run vs. the pass and how much their play calling suited their strengths. In other words, if I found that a team was averaging significantly higher yardage through the air, I reasoned that they should be calling more pass plays to take advantage of that. If they were averaging a lot on the ground, they should be calling more run plays.

Obviously, the Vikings came up as one of the best running teams in the league, and good ol' Brad Childress had them passing a ridiculous number of times in the week 4 analysis and calling a much more run-oriented game by week 11. Criticism of Childress's over-reliance on the passing game is still alive and well six weeks into the 2008 season, but is it still actually warranted? Here's how things look now, after six weeks of the 2008 season:

Average Yards per Pass Play:

Team	AYPP
New Orleans Saints	8.47
San Diego Chargers	8.32
Dallas Cowboys	7.90
Denver Broncos	7.26
Arizona Cardinals	7.16
Miami Dolphins	7.13
New York Giants	7.13
Philadelphia Eagles	6.87
Carolina Panthers	6.72
Buffalo Bills	6.71
Atlanta Falcons	6.68
Green Bay Packers	6.68
Indianapolis Colts	6.49
Houston Texans	6.34
Washington Redskins	6.27
Chicago Bears	6.25
New York Jets	6.03
Tennessee Titans	6.02
San Francisco 49ers	6.02
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.76
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.76
Minnesota Vikings	5.58
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.39
New England Patriots	5.26
Cleveland Browns	5.23
Oakland Raiders	5.16
Baltimore Ravens	4.89
St. Louis Rams	4.75
Detroit Lions	4.58
Seattle Seahawks	4.33
Cincinnati Bengals	4.32
Kansas City Chiefs	3.82
League Average	6.15

Average Yards per Running Play:

Team	AYRP
New York Giants	6.08
Atlanta Falcons	5.02
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.95
Dallas Cowboys	4.76
Denver Broncos	4.72
Seattle Seahawks	4.70
San Francisco 49ers	4.67
Oakland Raiders	4.64
Washington Redskins	4.62
Kansas City Chiefs	4.57
Houston Texans	4.38
Detroit Lions	4.32
Miami Dolphins	4.26
Minnesota Vikings	4.18
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.11
Cleveland Browns	3.81
Chicago Bears	3.78
New England Patriots	3.77
San Diego Chargers	3.76
St. Louis Rams	3.75
Green Bay Packers	3.74
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.71
Baltimore Ravens	3.70
Buffalo Bills	3.70
Philadelphia Eagles	3.68
New York Jets	3.66
Carolina Panthers	3.62
Tennessee Titans	3.58
New Orleans Saints	3.32
Indianapolis Colts	3.30
Arizona Cardinals	3.24
Cincinnati Bengals	3.12
League Average	4.12

Note that neither of these metrics takes turnovers into play. It's just raw yardage per play: (passing yards - sack yardage) / (passes + sacks) for passing plays, and yards per carry for running plays. While it's no surprise that the Vikings are below average in passing yards per play, it's a bit surprising to see them barely above average in rushing yards per play.

Now, here's the Yards per Pass Play divided by Yards per Running Play for the league. Teams with a high AYPP/AYRP should be passing more while teams with a low AYPP/AYRP should be running more. That's the theory, at least.

Team	AYPP/AYRP	Pass %
New Orleans Saints	2.55	59.3%
Arizona Cardinals	2.21	58.7%
San Diego Chargers	2.21	52.4%
Indianapolis Colts	1.96	64.5%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.87	62.2%
Carolina Panthers	1.86	51.2%
Buffalo Bills	1.81	54.6%
Green Bay Packers	1.79	57.2%
Tennessee Titans	1.68	45.6%
Miami Dolphins	1.68	53.0%
Dallas Cowboys	1.66	56.4%
Chicago Bears	1.65	52.8%
New York Jets	1.65	59.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.55	51.9%
Denver Broncos	1.54	60.2%
Houston Texans	1.45	60.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.40	53.8%
New England Patriots	1.40	54.5%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.39	60.8%
Cleveland Browns	1.37	54.4%
Washington Redskins	1.36	49.4%
Minnesota Vikings	1.33	54.9%
Atlanta Falcons	1.33	46.3%
Baltimore Ravens	1.32	46.1%
San Francisco 49ers	1.29	56.9%
St. Louis Rams	1.27	59.7%
New York Giants	1.17	52.8%
Oakland Raiders	1.11	49.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.09	58.4%
Detroit Lions	1.06	68.0%
Seattle Seahawks	0.92	52.1%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.84	58.1%
League Average	1.49	55.4%

To sum this table up, from a Vikings perspective: Minnesota is averaging 1.33 times as many yards per pass play than it is per running play. The league average is 1.49, so the Vikings are significantly below average (22nd of 32 teams, in fact) in this category.

Meanwhile, the team is dropping back to pass on 54.9% of its offensive snaps (discounting QB runs), just under the league average of 55.4%. Seeing as how the team has never had a lead big enough to abandon the pass and has only rarely been behind enough to abandon the run (at least no more than any other team that might go pass-happy late in the second or fourth quarter), it would seem that the general consensus is true: The Vikings pass considerably more than they should, based on their success in the passing game versus the running game. But I think we knew all that already.

Other teams with badly skewed ratios have understandable reasons for their lopsidedness. The Chiefs and especially the Lions have low AYPP/AYRP ratios yet pass more than the league average, owing to their frequent large deficits, which require them to pass more than they'd like. On the other hand, it looks like Jon Gruden has a little of "Childress disease," having the Bucs pass 58.4% of the time despite the fourth-worst AYPP/AYRP in the league and never having more than a 10-point deficit to overcome.

On the other side of things, most teams with a high AYPP/AYRP ratio have passed more than the league average. One of the strange exceptions is the 5-0 Tennessee Titans, who rank ninth in AYPP/AYRP yet have called the fewest passing plays (by percentage) in the NFL. Having some big leads to protect and a great defense that allows you to play conservatively on offense probably contributes to that and, really, if you're calling the plays in Tennessee, do you want Kerry Collins flinging it all over the field? Also, the high ratio is probably due more to the Titans' ineffective yards/carry of the running game (3.58, 28th in the league) than any significant prowess in the passing game (6.02, 18th), though the team's pass blocking (only two sacks so far this year) is playing a huge part.

All this data does is confirm what we already know: Brad Childress calls far too many passes given his personnel and the rushing and passing ability of his team. It's just nice to have it confirmed every once in a while.