Thursday, February 19, 2009

DI on Advanced NFL Stats Community

Last last year, Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats started up a new site, Advanced NFL Stats Community, where he invited like-minded stat geeks (you know who you are) to submit their work to be published on the site. Following much procrastination on my part, I finally summarized my thoughts on TYA and submitted it to Brian earlier this week.

The finished article appeared today on the site -- which, along with its parent site, has a lot of great content you should definitely check out. Just bring an open mind and a willingness to cast aside preconceived notions about things like "low interceptions are always good" and "the best teams don't rely on luck to win."

While you're at it, check out some of the other sites on my new and improved blogroll to the right. In fact, I heartily recommend this feature to anyone using Blogger. It's like a personal RSS feed for blogs, and it seems to work for blogs running just about any kind of framework (Blogger, Wordpress, whatever PFR uses...).

And, obligatory Vikings note: Maurice Hicks is gone. Though some would say he never should have been here.

Is it too late to get Mewelde Moore back?


Luft Krigare said...

Good job Jason. Was there not enough data for TJack? And can you use your formula on the relatively small sample size of the first couple of games he started this ('08) season then on the last ones? I'd be interested in the last ones as compared to the likes of Matt Cassel, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb or any other of the Vikings' possible '09 QBs.

Jason said...

Hey Luft,

I broke down this season's QBs in more depth in my post last month, even breaking down early-season T-Jack vs. late-season T-Jack. For overall 2008 season numbers, here are the Vikings' QB options:

Warner: 5.82
Garcia: 5.55
McNabb: 5.46
Cassel: 5.19
T-Jack: 5.02
Anderson: 3.24
Hasselbeck: 3.08

Before anyone blames Hasselbeck's numbers on the injuries Seattle had at WR, it's worth noting that Seneca Wallace scored 5.11.

Warner's probably not going to be an option, but McNabb and Garcia represent significant upgrades, assuming they don't deteriorate too badly due to age, and can stay healthy, and I like that they don't turn the ball over.

This is another reason I'm not so high on Cassel. With some of the best offensive talent and best coaching in the league, he was only barely above average. He took too many sacks and ran too many times. That might just be because of his inexperience, but I don't want to give up a ton of draft picks and money on a guy like that. Do people think he'll be better throwing to Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade and with Brad Childress calling the plays than he was throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker with Bill Belichek calling things?

bruddog said...

Cassell improved signifacantly over the second half of the season according to footballoutsiders numbers. From like -15% DVOA to 30%DVOA.

Brady's numbers bumped up signifigantly with those good WR's. However Cassell was nowhere ner Brady. Right now I think Cassel might be an average to slightly above average QB.