The Price of Randy Moss

Here's a quick guess at what a third-round pick -- which was apparently the going rate for one of the best WRs in history -- is worth.

Here are all third-round draft picks from 1991 to 2000. It can be assumed that all of these players have completed their careers or, in a few cases, we've seen enough of them to get a reasonable idea of how successful they've been. We can use PFR's Approximate Value as a guideline, sorting by CarAV to see who the best third-round picks were. The top five are:

Terrell Owens - 116
Jason Taylor - 115
Ronde Barber - 110
Aeneas Williams - 104
Curtis Martin - 101

If the Vikings actually gave up a player of that caliber for a few years late in Randy Moss' career, then it was a bad move, for certain. (I'll ignore the 7th-rounder the Vikings got from New England.) But those are just five players, out of 323 3rd-round picks, or about 1.5% of all picks. Sorted by AV, here are the number of players, and their percentage of all 323 picks:

100+: 5 (1.5%)
80-99: 5 (1.5%)
60-79: 9 (2.8%)
40-59: 27 (8.4%)
20-39: 65 (20.1%)
0-19: 212 (65.6%)

That means that about 2 out of every 3 3rd-round picks are essentially valueless -- players who achieve a career AV of less than 20. The 20-39 isn't much better, and the 40-59 tier hardly represents players you would regret not having on your team; the high end of that bracket gives us players like Ray Buchanan, James Jones, Brian Griese, and Darrell Jackson -- useful, but not overly significant.

Here's another way of looking at it: Coming into this season, Randy Moss has averaged about 14 points of AV per year, and that includes his hideous years with Oakland. Assuming the Vikings have him for three years, and assuming some decline in his skills -- with years of 12, 10, and 8 AV, that would give him 30 points of AV, which would make him better than 255 of the 323 3rd-rounders (78.9%) in our sample. So, you could say that there's about a 4-in-5 chance that this was a good deal for the Vikings and a 1-in-5 chance that the player the Pats get -- which will, we hope, be a late 3rd-rounder -- will be good enough to offset the loss of Randy Moss.

I'm happy with those odds.

2010 Season Predictions

So that "going to post more" semi-promise. Yeah, not so much.

But, on the eve of the 2010 season, the first game of which features the Vikings, I thought I should at least briefly share my opinions on the Vikings chances this season and the NFL as a whole. Unfortunately, I don't share the optimism that most of my brethren seem to.

I hate to sound like a naysayer, but I feel the Vikings have declined this offseason, while the Packers look to be really, really good. Our secondary is limping to the starting line, the offensive line (and Pat Williams) is still too fat, Adrian Peterson still fumbles, Sidney Rice is hurt, Brad Childress is still the head coach...

Oh, and yeah, there's that guy who's closer to retirement age than he is to college age. He's still a douche, and his ankle is already hurting.

As improbable as it was that Brett Favre would have the season he did at age 40, it's even more improbable that he'll do it at the age of 41, which he hits a month from tomorrow. Toss in the fact that he doesn't think Brad Childress knows how to run an offense (a point that I agree with him on) and the notion that, even if he's good, his body might not hold up all season, and only the homer-est of homers would have trouble acknowledging that the 2010 Vikings are walking a fine line between excellence and simply very-good-ness.

All is not lost, however, even if #4 doesn't perform up to snuff. The 2008 Vikings went 10-6 with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at the helm, and Peterson and the defense are enough to at least get us that far. Unfortunately, I don't know that they'll get much farther than that, unless everything comes together like it did last season.

My prediction: 10-6

Overall NFL Predictions (and very brief summaries):

AFC East
1. NY Jets - y
2. New England - x
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

The Jets probably aren't as good as everyone thinks they are, but they're good enough to get this far.

AFC North
1. Baltimore - y
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

Sorry Pittsburgh, but you could be really bad this year.

AFC South
1. Houston - y
2. Indianapolis - x
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

Houston has to get it done one of these years, right?

AFC West
1. San Diego - y
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City

I don't see any of these teams doing anything notable.

NFC East
1. Dallas - y
2. Washington
3. Philadelphia
4. NY Giants

Dallas is the only really good team here, IMHO

NFC North
1. Green Bay - y
2. Minnesota - x
3. Detroit
4. Chicago

Jay Cutler is really not good.

NFC South
1. Atlanta - y
2. New Orleans - x
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

Don't sleep on the Panthers.

NFC West

1. San Francisco - y
2. Arizona
3. St. Louis
4. Seattle

See AFC West.

AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship: Green Bay over Dallas
Super Bowl: Baltimore over Green Bay

See you in five months!

Super Bowl XXXIII redux

I've been playing around with the NFL SimMatchup on WhatIfSports.com lately, where you can match up any two teams in history and play a simulated game with them, just to answer the question: If Denny Green (and not Gary Anderson) hadn't lost the 1998 NFC Championship Game for the Vikings, how would they have fared in the Super Bowl against the Denver Broncos? Better than the Falcons, who got hammered 34-19 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score indicated.

It's easy to set up and sim games (if you're setting up this particular game, set 1998 Denver as Away, 1998 Minnesota as Home and select Pro Player Stadium at 70 degrees), and my first result was this 24-17 Denver win.

All right, so that's not very encouraging. But at least it was a far more exciting game than the real result, with Denver scoring the go-ahead TD with just five seconds remaining.

Still, small sample size, blah blah blah, so I ran nine more sims to get a full 10-game sample to play with. The results were:

Denver 24-17
Minnesota 18-13 (six Gary Anderson field goals)
Minnesota 23-16 (Cris Carter TD catch with 0:25 left)
Denver 24-21
Denver 27-20 (24 of game's 47 points in the fourth quarter)
Minnesota 28-17
Minnesota 23-17
Denver 54-41 (!!!!)
Denver 44-24 (Terrell Davis 239 yards rushing)
Minnesota 17-14

That's five wins apiece for each Denver and Minnesota, with an average score of Denver 25, Minnesota 23.2. And nearly all of them exciting, close affairs.

A few more notes on that insane 54-41 game:

* The game started off slowly, with Denver leading just 7-0 after the first quarter. The single-quarter scores after that were Minnesota 17-13, Denver 14-3, and Minnesota 21-20.

* Terrell Davis ran for 292 yards, which would have been an NFL single-game record at the time, and three touchdowns.

* Randall Cunningham countered with 396 yards passing and 3 TDs, 141 of it going to Randy Moss.

* Total offense: Denver 567, Minnesota 493, for a total of 1,060 yards.

* In a game like this, you'd have expected to see a few turnovers and long returns setting up or outright creating scores, but there were no turnovers and didn't appear to be any TD returns on kicks or punts.

* In a show of poor sportsmanship (which can probably be chalked up to the game algorithm just trying to score as much as possible), Denver kicked a field goal on the final snap of the game while already possessing a 10-point lead, to inflate the final score from 51-41 to 54-41. Boo, Dan Reeves!

Anyway, this is just one of the cool things you can do with the SimMatchup, and thanks to the guys at the Pro-Football-Reference blog for pointing it out to me. They've got their own interesting application for the SimMatchup planned, and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I'll definitely be rooting for the 1998 Vikings!

Tarvaris Jackson for Brady Quinn?

The Browns are looking to deal Brady Quinn and want a quarterback in exchange.

Tarvaris Jackson is essentially done in Minnesota, whether or not Brett Favre returns.

So, why not?

I'm not as low on Quinn as others are -- playing for that awful Cleveland team will make anyone look bad. I don't know if his 53.2% completion percentage and 5.2 yards per attempt last year were his fault of the fault of his receivers, but he avoids turnovers (just nine interceptions in 353 career attempts and four fumbles on 45 career "touches") and he just looked too good in college to be a complete NFL bust. Give him Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and Visanthe Shiancoe to throw to and Adrian Peterson (and LaDanian Tomlinson?) to hand off to, and he'll have to look better.

Besides, the Browns already have Seneca Wallace. With T-Jack, they could have the most mobile quarterbacking in the league, which they'll probably need.

Lazy Sunday miscellaney

Vikings OK waiting on Favre's decision.

Like we have a choice.

* If Brett Favre returns and throws more than 100 passes, he will become just the fourth such quarterback to do so at the age of 41, joining Warren Moon, Vinny Testaverde, and Doug Flutie, as seen here.

* Speaking of Testaverde, I find it interesting that it may be a while before we see another QB inducted into the Hall of Fame. There were no passers among this year's finalists, and among quarterbacks who retired from 2005 to 2008, only Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and Steve McNair have anything resembling a chance at the HOF, and I'd say all are iffy prospects, at best. The potential inductees in 2015 will include Kurt Warner and possibly Favre.

* How good was Favre's 2009? Only four QBs in the history of the NFL have had a season of more than 30 TDs and fewer than 10 interceptions, as Favre did in 2009. All of them came in the last decade. All except Favre went to the Super Bowl that year.

* And if Favre doesn't return? Well, there's Donovan McNabb dangling out there, Sage Rosenfels, and Tarvaris Jackson are in-house options -- and let's hope this scenario doesn't play out. We already have enough running backs, we don't need to draft one in the first round.

2009 Vikings predictions revisited

So, how'd I do?

Quarterback Prediction:
Brett Favre: 3,300 passing yards, 21 TDs, 19 Int.

Quarterback Actual:
Brett Favre: 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 Int.

So I was a little off, but be honest -- you never saw this coming, did you?

There's little more that can be said about Favre's remarkable season, mostly coming after he crossed the age-40 threshold. I did somewhat predict his unpredictability, saying "he could be great, chucking 25-30 TDs, and he could be awful, chucking 25-30 interceptions." Technically, I was wrong, as he exceeded 30 TDs, but I wasn't exactly complaining. In fact, it was the most TDs Favre has chucked since 1997, and he set a personal mark in completion percentage and lowest interception percentage. Makes you wonder what he'll be like in 10 years.

Running Back Prediction:
Adrian Peterson: 1,450 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Chester Taylor: 500 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Running Back Actual:
Adrian Peterson: 1,383 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards, 18 TDs
Chester Taylor: 338 rushing yards, 389 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Here's one where I wasn't too far off, though Adrian Peterson's newly found skill as a receiver was a pleasant surprise. Believing that Favre wouldn't pass particularly well, I predicted higher rushing numbers for the Peterson/Taylor duo, which received 92.6% of all carries by Vikings running backs (if one counts Jeff Dugan and Percy Harvin as running backs). Overall, I predicted 2,450 total yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs for the duo, and they managed 2,546 and 20, so I'll call this one a win. If I was keeping score, that is.

Receivers Prediction:
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs
Sidney Rice: 25 catches, 350 yards, 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 40 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs
Percy Harvin: 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 catches, 550 yards, 6 TDs

Receivers Actual:
Sidney Rice: 83 catches, 1,312 yards, 8 TD
Percy Harvin: 60 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDs
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 618 yards, 4 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 53 catches, 556 yards, 11 TDs

I wrote, "Someone from the Vikings' second tier of receivers will have to step up this year... Sidney Rice shows occasional flashes but isn't reliable." Well, he's reliable now, and his Pro Bowl season definitely counts as "stepping up." If Favre retires, it'll be interesting to see how Rice's numbers respond, but he definitely proved me wrong this season.

If the previous category counted as a "win," this one definitely goes down as a "loss." I did somehow nail Bernard Berrian's 55 receptions and came within six yards of Shiancoe's yardage total, but Rice and Harvin exceeded all expectations and Berrian managed just a puzzling 11.2 yards per reception, after averaging nearly double that (20.1) in 1998. Other than the running backs, no other Viking receiver had more than 10 catches, and Bobby Wade had 36 catches for 367 yards and three TDs -- for Kansas City.


I don't have the energy right now to do a piecemeal dissection of the offensive line, special teams, and defense, so here's a Cliff's Notes looks at some of my best -- and worst -- predictions about those units for 2009.

"If Loadholt and Sullivan can get it done, the O-line could be one of the best in the league."

I've already discussed my opinion of the offensive line, which failed to open pretty much any holes for the second half of the season, even while it improved in pass protection. For the record, the Vikings were a mere 22nd in the league in yards per carry, and Vikings QBs were sacked on 5.8% of their dropbacks, 13th in the league. The line was average, at best.

"this has the makings to be a dominant defensive line, playing equally well against the run and the pass."

It had its moments, good and bad, but the defense began and ended, for much of the season, with the play of the defensive line. The starting foursome of Allen, Williams, Williams, and Edwards racked up 31 sacks, more than eight other entire teams.

"He'll probably never be considered an elite linebacker, but as long as he flies around the field like he does, I'll be OK with his lack of recognition."

That was in reference to Chad Greenway, who did indeed continue to fly around the field, leading the team in tackles.

"Unfortunately, as shown last year when Henderson went down (Napoleon Harris!), the team's depth at linebacker is almost non-existant."

For a rookie, Jaspar Brinkley did an adequate job filling in when EJ Henderson went down in December, and, depending on how Henderson's recovery from a broken leg goes, he might have more of a chance to build on his rookie season going forward.

"That could be a questionable decision in the future, with Winfield having just turned 32 and Griffin not being able to keep up with elite receivers at times last year, but both should provide at least decent play for a couple more years, provided the defensive line can keep quarterbacks on their toes."

By the end of the season, Antoine Winfield was a nickel corner and Cedric Griffin, while decent, again struggled in coverage when the defensive line couldn't produce pressure (though the weak safety play of Tyrell Johnson and Madeiu Williams contributed to these difficulties). With three of their four defensive backs (all but Johnson) locked into big-money, long-term deals (though Winfield's has a semi-"out" if he becomes a fifth DB), improvement in this area might prove difficult.

"Suffice to say, Longwell's earned his keep as a Viking."

Amen to that. In his four years in purple, Longwell has converted on 86.5% of field goal opportunities, including 26 of 28 this year. Tack on a league-high 54 extra-point attempts, and you have a 132-point season, the highest of the 13-year veteran's career. "Four more years!"

"the Vikings are turning to rookies Percy Harvin as their primary kick returner and Percy Harvin as the punt returner."

I'm not quite sure what I meant there, but Percy Harvin as a kick returner worked out fairly well, I'd say.

Projected Finish:
11-5, 1st in NFC North

Only off by one game, and that was with Brett Favre being mediocre. I think I expected more out of the defense and the running game to compensate, but however we got there, I'll take it.

Letting it sink in

After a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like Brett Favre. Or maybe not.

This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. Anything. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted right now. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, Brad Childress won't set a deadline for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)

Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. Ryan Longwell is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even Troy Aikman didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when Troy Aikman thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up Reggie Bush on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.

No, the blame has to go around to guys like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.

It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the 1999 loss to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.

But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.

Wait 'til next year.

NFC Championship Game: Overtime

Saints win the toss. C'mon, pick six...

They're making way too much of this "inexperienced kicker" thing.

14:52. Well, that's not an optimal return. And Cedric Griffin's hurt. Yay.

14:07. If the Saints want to run twice when we lose our starting corner, that's fine with me.

13:12. Oh Tyrell Johnson, if you were only skilled, you might have grabbed that deflection.

12:56. When you blitz like that and get no pressure, you're in trouble. And I don't think Devery Henderson was ever touched. Got away with one there.

12:06. Pierre Thomas almost lost the ball. Now, does he only get the spot from where he semi-lost it?

I hope we'll see Brett in Miami, too.

Yeah, that's tough to overturn. Well, they're at the 41 and need about 10 more to put it in semi-comfortable field goal range.

11:45. Flag? Oh, hell. The receiver was diving back for the ball himself, he wasn't interfered with! Very, very weak call.

11:40. Loss of four? I'll take that!

10:49. Gain of 12 over the middle. That'll just about do it. Or was that an incompletion? How about a review?

Strange things we've seen in this game: 6 Viking fumbles, Brett Favre making bad plays, and Brad Childress using a timeout smartly.

"The ruling on the field will stand." Dammit.

10:19. And here we go. 40-yard field goal attempt to win the game. Let's hope for a repeat of Antoine Winfield's blocked FG against the Saints last year.

And now, Brad Childress uses a timeout stupidly. All is right with the world.

10:15. Nope. 31-28 Saints.


Well, that's it. Amazing that we made as many mistakes as we did and still had a chance in the end. Good-bye Brett. I hate you slightly less than I did at the start of the season.

NFC Championship Game: Fourth Quarter

Somehow, I'm guessing the Saints will blitz.

14:53. I'd be happy enough with a Percy Harvin/Chester Taylor RB committee in this quarter.

14:10. Or maybe I wouldn't.

Seeing Favre limp around there worries me, though. He will never, ever take himself out of a game, no matter how much he's hurting. On the one hand, that's heroic, on the other, it can be really bad if he's too hurt to play effectively.

12:39. Third down and again, close but no sack. Touchdown. 28-21 Saints.

12:32. Is Favre rolling out really a good idea?

11:45. Peterson hit by -- yep, Darren Sharper.

11:17. Oh dear. We're starting to see Bad Brett. That should have been a pick.

11:05. I didn't think there was any chance that pass would work. Awesome catch by Bernard Berrian.

9:37. Oh. My. God. Time to break out the stick-um.

8:18. Head-up play by Brees, and could have been amazing for us.

On the bright side, all these fumbles by the Vikings means we aren't punting to Reggie Bush. (Hey, I'm reaching here...)

7:42. Last year, I was scared every time Tarvaris Jackson dropped back. That's how I feel now whenever Adrian Peterson -- or pretty much anyone else -- has the ball.

7:06. Big-time stiff-arm by Shiancoe!

6:29. Peterson juked a little too hard there, basically took himself down.

5:45. That could have been PI against Berrian or Porter, IMHO. Or maybe neither, after seeing the replay.

4:58. Now for some defense. Please, some defense. 28-28 tie.

4:52. Good kick coverage. That's the first step.

My fingers are actually trembling.

4:43. OMG sack! If only we could have recovered...

3:07. I think I'm more nervous on 3rd-and-18s than I am on 3rd-and-4s.

2:37. Two minutes, 37 seconds left. Time for a classic Favre drive.

I don't think even Katy perry gets me this excited.

1:55. Is this really the time to run the ball? We can't possibly be playing for overtime. Tell me we aren't playing for overtime.

1:43. Bernard Berrian is having the game of his life.

1:31. Perfect pass by Favre, perfect catch by Rice.

1:06. 33 yard line. That's just about in FG range!

0:19. Adrian, you can't stop and go here. Go forward, get two yards, if that's all you can do. It's fine, really. He just wants to hit a home run every play. And we really better pass on third down.

0:19. 12 men in the huddle? What is that?!

0:07. DO NOT THROW LATE OVER THE MIDDLE!

I mean, it's not like a 45- to 55-yard field goal would be automatic, but at least give it a chance! On to overtime...

NFC Championship Game: Third Quarter

These first-half stats are brought to you by Mass Effect 2.

14:49. I wish Commander Sheperd had been on the field. He/she would have actually tackled Courtney Roby better than Tyrell Johnson. Or maybe would have just shot him, depending on whether he/she was a paragon or a renegade.

14:04. And Pierre Thomas shakes off Pat Williams(!) for a six-yard gain to put the Saints in the red zone.

12:56. I'm surprised more teams don't use that extra lineman as a blocker. 21-14 Saints.

12:56. Yeah, that was a pretty bad call on that touchdown.

10:54. Naufahu Tahi is my hero!

10:20. And so is Visanthe Shiancoe!

9:37. Anthony Herrera whiffs on his block. Possibly because he was too tired from getting outside because he's really fat.

8:15. This is the Visanthe Shiancoe drive! (and a slight hold on the defender)

7:35. Adrian held on to that one. 21-21 tie.

Not that I think he shows favorites, but I wonder who Roger Goodell's favorite team is. He has to have one, right?

7:22. I think that's the first official "hit" on Drew Brees.

6:40. False start. Phew.

6:29. I always thought it was a rule that a punt returner never, ever goes inside the 10. Ever. But I've seen it seemingly a ton this year.

5:39. That's it. Take Adrian Peterson out of the game. Now.

4:09. That's a really dubious penalty. I used to call those Roughing the Favre when they were called against us and they made me crazy. And you know it's dubious when Troy Aikman thinks it's a bad call.

1:59. Triple coverage. Interception. Ack.

Addendum: He hit him below the waist! That's a penalty, dammit! A stupid penalty, but a penalty!

And the fourth quarter begins. With Tarvaris Jackson possibly under center. (And Katy Perry makes me feel dirty.)

NFC Championship Game: Second Quarter

14:33. Even Brett's earplugs are purple. How cute!

14:07. And here's Chris Myers with an update on the purple earplugs. That's some reporting!

13:29. And now, a punt. Hold me, I'm frightened.

13:21. Fair catch. Phew.

13:03. 3rd and 10, someone get a hand on Brees, and it's a 28-yard gain. Nothing infuriates me more than an almost-sack on third down.

11:00. When #64 goes in motion, you know it's a running play.

10:30. A touchdown on that drive seemed almost inevitable. 14-14 tie.

I ate about 2/3 of a pizza for dinner about an hour and a half ago. That's suddenly seeming like an unwise decision.

10:22. So maybe they don't always run when #64 goes in motion...

9:44. Brett Favre leads the league in fake-passes-followed-by-fake-handoff-followed-by-a-pass-es.

9:03. And Sidney Rice's arms grow to six feet long!

8:24. Adrian Peterson and Darren Sharper are joined at the hip today.

5:22. Lynell Hamilton isn't going to gain a yard on 3rd-and-1 against our defense. I mean, really.

4:29. Gratuitous Deanna Favre shot. She's in the stands? She couldn't get a box?

3:51. We are going to need more than 14 points against the Saints. We really are.

3:36. Oh, Ben Leber. I would have forgotten all the nasty things I said about you on the Pierre Thomas touchdown if you'd intercepted that pass.

3:28. 3rd and 1. Bet they don't give it to Lynell Hamilton.

2:44. Reggie Bush, meet Pat Williams.

2:07. So, when the Viking jumped into the neutral zone, why didn't the Saints snap it? That was the point!

I'm spending my downtime looking at pictures of Katy Perry. I think I like the one in the green bikini the best.

1:52. You can't advance a muff, and the whistle was blown. That's a penalty, Saints fans. The ball was dead.

1:38. Big third-down toss and catch by Berrian and Favre.

1:24. Brett's accuracy on downfield throws is...lacking. Berrian was wide open.

1:13. REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE!

0:56. Oh, phooey. And he had a nice hole to get to the end zone. Crap, crap, crap.

And that's the half. Back to Katy.

Stream of consciousness blogging: NFC Championship Game

It's like the comments section of a post, but only I'm invited.

Joe Buck calls the Superdome "the loudest building in football." He clearly forgot where he was last week.

14:50. The key to the Vikings' offense is, obviously, the early inclusion of Jim Kleinsasser.

13:34. There was a time when I would have been upset at four straight passes to start the game. Not any more.

11:35. That screen looked good until John Sullivan missed not one, but two defenders.

10:50. An Adrian Peterson sighting!

9:35. Whoop! Sorry about that, Darren Sharper! 7-0 Minnesota.

Six months ago, I hated the Brett Favre Sears commercials. Now I kinda like them. That's very, very depressing.

8:55. Really can't give Drew Brees that much time, even if it was incomplete.

7:51. K-Will almost tipped that one.

7:00. When Pat Williams jumps offsides, it should probably be a 10-yard penalty.

6:30. Missed tackle by Ben Leber = Saints touchdown. 7-7 tie.

On the other hand, those "tiny hands" Burger King commercials still freak me out.

6:15. OK, maybe they could run just a little bit.

6:11. Sure looked like there was contact...ah, there we go.

6:03. Bernard Berrian finds the spin button on his controller!

5:37. They call a personal foul on hitting Harvin, but not Favre? Uh...(amended: OK, so it wasn't)

4:20. Favre won't need a uniform if we play another game, he'll be purple all over.

2:53. That might have worked if Phil Loadholt wasn't 800 pounds.

2:11. Favre. Rice. TOUCHDOWN!!! 14-7 Minnesota.

2:05. Blatant hold against Tyrell Johnson on the kickoff return that goes uncalled.

1:27. Man, that reverse could have been outstanding!

And the Vikings take over at the 15 as we go to the second quarter. This post is already too long, so I'll start another!

Don't expect big numbers from Adrian Peterson

One final thought before the big game...

The common belief among just about everyone is that Adrian Peterson will finally have a big game, one he hasn't had in a while, against the Saints and their so-so rushing defense (4.49 yards per carry allowed, 26th in the league). Problem is, we've been waiting for AP to have that kind of day for over two months. He's only had one game with more than four yards per carry -- and that was just nine carries for 54 yards against the Giants in the last game of the season -- since running over the Lions to the tune of 18 carries for 133 yards (7.39 YPC) on Nov. 15.

In 17 games this year (including last week's playoff game against Dallas), Peterson has only faced one team that's allowed more than the Saints' 4.49 yards per carry during the regular season, and that was the Browns back in week one. However, five other teams averaged more than 4.4 YPC against, so those are probably comparable. The exact numbers are:

Opponent	AP YPC	Team YPC vs.
Cleveland	7.20	4.57
Arizona	1.46	4.49
Carolina	2.92	4.44
Detroit	6.13	4.42
Detroit	7.39	4.42
St. Louis	4.50	4.40
Chicago	3.40	4.33
Chicago	3.92	4.33
NY Giants	6.00	4.19
Seattle	3.42	4.15
Dallas	2.42	3.97
Cincinnati	3.73	3.94
Pittsburgh	3.83	3.87
San Francisco	4.47	3.64
Green Bay	2.20	3.59
Green Bay	3.88	3.59
Baltimore	6.50	3.43

Four of the "easiest" rush defenses AP faced -- Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago twice -- came in the second half of the season, and he averaged 1.46, 2.92, 3.40, and 3.92 yards per carry in those games. So I'm less than optimistic about the predictions regarding his "sure-fire" breakout game against the Saints today. If the Vikings win, it will likely be how they've won for most of the second half of the season: with the defense and on the arm of Brett Favre.

Hey, you don't suppose we could play the Lions again, do you?

NFC Championship Game Facts

This year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl will be either a team that hasn't been to the big game in 33 years or a team that has never been there. Either way, that's kinda cool.

The most points ever scored in an NFC Championship Game is 66, when the 49ers beat the Cowboys 38-28 in January 1995. There's a reasonable chance that will be exceeded on Sunday.

Only the Cowboys (14), 49ers (12), and Rams (9) have been in more NFC Championship Games than the Vikings (8). The 49ers and Cowboys have squared off five times in the game.

Road teams are 13-26 in the NFC Championship Game.

The last time Brett Favre was in an NFC Championship Game (1998), Drew Brees was a sophomore at Purdue and Percy Harvin was nine years old.

Chester Taylor had more combined rush-receive yards (727) in 2009 than Reggie Bush (725).

I am officially tired of typing "NFC Championship Game."

And then there were four

Well, you can forget about talks of "hot" teams and streaks and all that nonsense and how much impact it has on the playoffs. Teams on 11- and four-game winning streaks (San Diego and Dallas) lost, while the four teams that won this weekend were a combined 4-8 in their last three games of the regular season. Among them were the Vikings, who put a 34-3 throttling on the Dallas Cowboys to go to their first NFC Championship game since the 2000 season.

At this point, I don't even care that the Vikings are a pass-first team and are almost completely impotent at running the football. You'll still hear the usual tripe about how the Saints "must stop Adrian Peterson," but he's currently playing like, at best, the third-best player on the offense, behind Brett Favre and Sidney Rice. Even Chester Taylor looked better the few times he touched the ball on Sunday.

On the bright side, the Vikings will play a team next Sunday that was 22nd against the run in total yardage and 26th in yards per carry, and gave up a 70-yard run on the first play from scrimmage on yesterday's game. The Saints, in fact, were 18th in scoring defense and 25th in total yards allowed (the Vikings were ninth in both categories), and, for all their offensive firepower, scored just 40 points more than the Vikings, or less than a field goal per game. And while it is a road game, playing in a dome suits the Vikings just fine. This has all the potential makings of a high-scoring, but close game.

But that's the future. For now, I'm just basking in the heady glow of knowing that the Vikings are just 60 minutes away from their first Super Bowl in 33 years. And despite my better judgment, I'm actually believing it can happen.

Streakers come to Minnesota

If I was completely impartial and unbiased, I would probably say that the Vikings are the most likely home team to lose this weekend. Dallas has been hot for the last month, the Vikings have been hit-or-miss, and Tony Romo is that type of elusive quarterback who gives our pass rushers nightmares. (Remember the Jeff Garcia Tampa Bay game in 2008? Yeah, I've tried to forget it, too.) The oddsmakers would seem to agree with this, making the Vikings just a 2.5-point favorite, the lowest of all the home teams.

Fortunately, I'm not impartial and unbiased. Well, I am, and I do think the Vikings will struggle, but the team that I think will really have troubles this week is New Orleans because they've struggled even worse than the Vikings down the stretch.

Here are the results of the Saints' last five games:

23-10 loss @ Carolina (where the starters barely played)
20-17 loss vs. Tampa Bay
24-17 loss vs. Dallas
26-23 win @ Atlanta
33-30 win @ Washington

The tight Atlanta win came without having to face Matt Ryan or Michael Turner and the Washington win...well, it was against Washington. That's five straight weeks of subpar performances, including two wins against teams they should have dominated. And then there was that Tampa Bay loss.

So I think Arizona has a better than average chance of beating the Saints, especially on the fast surface of the Superdome. So, what about those "hot" Cowboys? Well, they beat New Orleans, which, as previously mentioned, may or may not be impressive. Then they shut out Washington -- no great feat -- and twice hammered Philadelphia, which came into their week 17 contest on a six-game winning streak. So much for being "hot."

A few years ago, I did a study on streaking teams in MLB and the NFL to see if there really was any correlation between being on a win streak and whether a team would win its next game. The correlation in baseball was virtually nil. In 2005, a team that had won six or more games actually won its next game less than 50% of the time. Football, with its smaller sample size, was a little more volatile. Over the five seasons I looked at, a team with a four-game or higher win streak was 107-54 (.664) in its next game.

So, what's all that mean? That Dallas's win streak means less than the fact that the team is talented. So are the Vikings. (And consider that San Diego, on an 11-game winning streak, is still not favored to win the Super Bowl.) I think the "buzz" over the Cowboys playing well in December and January and the Vikings being so-so over that same time span is enough to influence people to think that the Cowboys are the better team. But we're all too smart for that, right?

Let's hope so.

Vikings' top players of the decade

So I'm back, moved in to my new apartment in Dallas, complete with the two most vital ingredients for keeping me sane:

1) Internet; and
2) Coffee

All is well.

What is a little troubling, though, is that the Dallas Cowboys are now 2-0 since I moved down here. Hopefully, they'll be 2-1 soon. But I'll worry about that later. For now, I'll stick with something easier. With the regular season over, I thought I'd use Pro-Football-Reference's Player Season Finder, I thought I'd look up the Vikings' top contributors during the 2000s. It'll be a fun look back at seasons past and some of the leaders might surprise people.

Passing Yards
1) Daunte Culpepper -- 20,162
2) Brad Johnson -- 4,635
3) Brett Favre -- 4,202
4) Tarvaris Jackson -- 3,643
5) Gus Frerotte -- 2,847

Passing TDs
1) Daunte Culpepper -- 135
2) Brett Favre -- 33
3) Tarvaris Jackson -- 21
3) Brad Johnson -- 21
5) Gus Frerotte -- 18

It's a sign of how much the QB position has been a revolving door since Culpepper left that Favre rates so highly on these lists after just one season. No other Vikings QB threw for more than 1,000 yards or 10 TDs in the decade.

Passing Interceptions
1) Daunte Culpepper -- 86
2) Brad Johnson -- 19
3) Tarvaris Jackson -- 18
4) Gus Frerotte -- 17
5) Brett Favre -- 7

And yet Favre ranks fifth on this list, one ahead of the immortal Spergeon Wynn. These are crazy times we live in.

Rushing Yards
1) Adrian Peterson -- 4,484
2) Michael Bennett -- 3,174
3) Chester Taylor -- 2,797
4) Daunte Culpepper -- 2,470
5) Robert Smith -- 1,521

Honestly, I was a little surprised to see AP at the top of this list, after just three seasons with the team. It's been an even longer road for the team to find a replacement for Robert Smith than it has been to find a replacement for Daunte Culpepper (which, admittedly, isn't over).

Receiving Yards
1) Randy Moss -- 6,416
2) Cris Carter -- 2,145
3) Sidney Rice -- 1,849
4) Nate Burleson -- 1,789
5) Jermaine Wiggins -- 1,659

Then again, it's been an even longer road to find a replacement for Randy Moss. Sidney Rice isn't exactly on his level, but in becoming the Vikings' first 1,000-yard receiver since Burleson in 2004, he's definitely the best we've had in a long time.

Touchdowns
1) Randy Moss -- 62
2) Adrian Peterson -- 41
3) Daunte Culpepper -- 29
4) Moe Williams -- 23
5) Chester Taylor -- 21

Moe Williams sighting! Visanthe Shiancoe is 6th with 19. Cris Carter owns the Vikings record with 110 TDs, something Peterson might already have his sights set on.

Points
1) Ryan Longwell -- 448
2) Randy Moss -- 374
3) Gary Anderson -- 275
4) Adrian Peterson -- 246
5) Daunte Culpepper -- 182

Just think: if we hadn't signed Ryan Longwell, Gary Anderson would probably still be kicking for the team...

Sacks
1) Kevin Williams -- 48.5
2) Lance Johnstone -- 41.0
3) Jared Allen -- 29.0
4) Ray Edwards -- 21.5
5) Chris Hovan -- 17.0

Amazingly, Chris Hovan is still in the NFL. Well, he's in Tampa Bay...

Interceptions
1) Darren Sharper -- 18
2) Antoine Winfield -- 15
3) Corey Chavous -- 14
4) Brian Williams -- 12
5) Brian Russell -- 11

Ex-Packers Sharper and Longwell lead two categories, and Brett Favre looks good in all the passing categories. I'm not sure what that says, other than nyah-nah-nah-nah-nah!

And finally...

Yards per punt
1) Chris Kluwe -- 44.40
2) Mitch Berger -- 44.21

Nobody else even managed 100 punts or 40 yards per punt in a Vikings uniform. Maybe they should have played more World of Warcraft.

Clash of egos

Last post of 2009 for me and probably the last post for a while in 2010. Don't worry, I'm not quitting blogging (no matter how bad the Vikings play). Instead, after 4 1/2 years in NASCAR-land (Charlotte), I'm moving to Cowboy-land. Yes, I'm about to become even more "displaced" of a Vikings fan that I was when I started this blog, with a move to Dallas to start my new job with Beckett Media, not to write about sports but to write about entertainment titles and video games. So it'll probably be a week or more before I get settled in and am good to go for a resumption of blogging -- try not to jump off the cliff without me!

I was heartily amused by the picture gracing the top of Greg Easterbrook's TMQ column this week. While I don't agree that the reason for the Vikings struggles is Brett Favre's diva-ness, I still can't understand how anyone would think he wasn't running the show -- or at least thought he was running the show -- from day one.

"Brett, we have a deadline for you to sign by."

"No thanks."

"OK, well how about this deadline?"

"No, that doesn't work for me either?"

"Will this deadline do, Brett?"

"Yeah, maybe. You know, forget about it, I'm not coming back."

"OK."



"How about now? Please?"

"Well, since you asked so nicely..."

By Easterbrook's reckoning, Favre has "sabotaged" his recent teams by disagreeing with his head coaches over playcalling and possibly other aspects of the game. But look at who he's disagreed with. Eric Mangini and Brad Childress aren't exactly Bill Walsh and Bill Parcells. Given the choice between Favre calling the shots and Childress, I have to say at this point I have more confidence in Favre, as evidenced by that goal-line sequence in Monday night's game.

Easterbrook mentions a similar concept in last week's TMQ in reference to Peyton Manning's playcalling for the Colts:

But here, TMQ thinks, is the real reason the Indianapolis attack is so hard to stop, generating 23 victories in its last 24 games: Manning is the sole NFL quarterback who calls his own plays. [Offensive coordinator] Tom Moore says he radios in "suggestions" to Manning, and he's not being cute. Many plays drawn up by Moore and Manning have multiple options -- any one of several things can happen, depending on the defense. When Manning comes to the line, he chooses which variation to use. Most of the time, Manning simply calls whatever he wants to call. Often several of the receivers are running "sight adjustments." They don't have a specific pattern called at the line -- rather, they run what seems likely to be open given the defensive set.

Having Manning call his own plays is extremely effective. Obviously, many quarterbacks lack his level of ability. But TMQ thinks the real reason more NFL quarterbacks don't call their own plays is coaching bureaucracy. The coaches want to be in control, and maintain their illusion of possessing super-ultra-secret insider knowledge. No mere player could call a down-and-out -- only coaches have that kind of skill! By not letting quarterbacks call their own plays, NFL teams concede an advantage to the Colts. Which, needless to say, is fine with the Colts.

There should be absolutely zero questions that Brad Childress thinks himself a god among coaching and openly bristles at the notion that a mere player -- even one was experienced as Brett Favre -- could possibly call a game even remotely as well as he could. I don't think that Favre should call everything, but in key situations, he should be given more control than Childress is almost certainly willing to give.

Whatever the reason for the Vikings' troubles of late, I don't believe it has anything to do with Brett Favre's ego or lack of ability (but don't tell that to ESPN, which on Tuesday morning applied the headline "Fading with Favre" to the highlights of the Monday night game). As crazy as it seems, Favre probably isn't the biggest egomaniac on the Vikings' sideline, and that's a little scary to think.

(Oh, and congratulations to the Vikings' eight Pro Bowlers. The Pro Bowl -- now with extra meaninglessness!)

A tale of two halves

I was thinking about the Tennessee Titans last night.

The phrase people used to describe the Titans during their second-half resurgence this season was that they'd "dug a hole" so deep at the start of the season by going 0-6 that even their remarkable 7-2 run since wouldn't be enough to get them into the playoffs.

By that same measure, the Minnesota Vikings dug themselves into a hole in the first half Monday night by playing the worst half of football I'd seen them play all year. Offense, defense, special teams -- absolutely nothing worked for the entire half, in which the team could only manage about 100 yards on offense while allowing the Bears to march up and down the field. At that point I was already thinking of making plans for the third weekend in January, since I knew I wouldn't be watching the Vikings in the playoffs' second week.

Then came the second half. Somehow, the team that had sleepwalked through the last month or so was replaced with the team that we'd seen during the seasons first three months. That team featured Adrian Peterson running free, Brett Favre zinging passes downfield, and Sidney Rice catching everything. That team scored 30 points in the half. That team looked like a playoff-caliber team. That team looked unstoppable, at least on offense.

The special teams, unfortunately, looked also like a throwback -- a throwback to the 2008 unit. A missed extra point and poor kick coverage allowed the Bears to get back into the game but, oddly, when the Vikings got the ball back with five minutes left to go and needing a touchdown to tie the game, I felt something I hadn't felt in a long time: confidence. Of course Brett Favre was going to lead the team down for a game-tying touchdown. It's what he does. And waiting until fourth down with 16 seconds left to go to do it? Brilliant.

Then came the final stanza. Would we see the first-half Vikings or the second-half Vikings? I didn't know if I should be confident or pessimistic. I figured there was an equal chance of both and, unfortunately, we got the latter. The Bears were in field goal range immediately and it only took a miracle for them not to score on their opening drive. Then, just when I thought a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson would be just what the doctor ordered in OT, it was pass, sack, sack, punt. The next time, the Vikings got the ball to AP for the first time in the extra period, only to have him cough it up yet again and hand the Bears the win.

Certainly, there's more blame to go around to just lump it all on Peterson. The special teams, as mentioned, were horrible. (A bobbled snap and a 15-yard punt? Really, Chris Kluwe?) The announcing team mentioned that Antoine Winfield could be beat one-on-one downfield, which the Bears took full advantage of on the game's last play. And, other than one good tackle, Jaspar Brinkley again looked like a poor replacement for EJ Henderson. And then there was that offensive line that played in the first half, which was definitely not the same five guys who played in the second. I refuse to believe it.

Yet strangely, despite the loss and the fact that the Vikings now need help from Dallas to get a first-round bye, I feel strangely confident. That second half showed me that the team can actually look and play like a good team again, something I didn't think possible after the last few weeks. Yes, they're still fading down the stretch, but they showed at least a little something to give me hope. Maybe it's a false hope, as often is the case with Minnesota Vikings teams, but I'll cling to it for a little while longer. It's all I've got right now.

Random pregame thought

I hope Brett Favre throws for 6 touchdowns tonight. Not just because I want the Vikings to win or that I particularly like the guy but, man, the media's pounced on this whole Favre-vs.-Brad Childress "storyline" like a mother bear pouncing on a hunter endangering her cubs. Only I think the bear-mauling would be less painful (and over much quicker).