Thursday, April 30, 2009

I am smarter than Mel Kiper *

* Mel Kiper of nearly three weeks ago, that is.

I posted a pseudo-contest last week to let people post their own mock drafts and see how close they got to each other and to a few of the "pros." Three people (myself included) posted their mock drafts and I scanned around a bit to other people's blogs to get a few more, along with five professional mock drafts (sort of) in a "Pros vs. Joes"-style competition.

The good news: We won!

The bad news: We kinda cheated. See below.

I won't repeat scoring details here (just remember the lower, the better), so here are the overall results:

Jason Winter
Score: 149
Perfect picks: 9

Score: 150
Perfect picks: 2

Score: 177
Perfect picks: 7

Score: 195
Perfect picks: 1

Score: 160
Perfect picks: 160

Amateurs' average
Score: 166.2
Perfect picks: 5.4

And now, the pros:

Mel Kiper (ESPN)
Score: 165
Perfect picks: 6

Todd McShay (ESPN)
Score: 166
Perfect picks: 5

Sporting News
Score: 207
Perfect picks: 2

MJD (Yahoo)
Score: 175
Perfect picks: 4

Peter King (SI)
Score: 133
Perfect picks: 6

Pros' average
Score: 169.2
Perfect picks: 4.6

And now, the caveats:

* McShay's and Kiper's picks come from two weeks before, as supplied by bartolis. So they were made about one week before my picks on last Tuesday. Still, the only major development in that time, I feel, was the trade of Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons, which ruined my Brandon Pettigrew-to-the-Falcons pick. (Kiper and McShay also had the Falcons taking Pettigrew.) If anyone's got access to McShay's/Kiper's last-minute picks, I'd love to see them.

* The MJD draft, as I alluded to on Thursday, was actually a conglomerate draft from a bunch of (apparently poorly informed) people. So it only sorta fits in the "pro" section, but hey, if a major web site wants to run it, I'm a-gonna count it.

* On the other hand, there's no excuse for that Sporting News draft. Andre Smith at #21? Really?

* And there's even less excuse for Peter King, whose mock draft appears to have been posted Friday afternoon, about 24 hours before the start of the draft. Oh wait, he doesn't need an excuse. He mopped up.

A few other cheers and jeers about the 10 mock drafts:

* Cheers to bartolis and 3rdStone, who were the only ones crazy enough to get inside Crazy Al Davis' head and put Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7 on their drafts. I just have to remember that, for next year, assume the Raiders will take the fastest player available, regardless of anything else.

* spidey_2k and the MJD drafts were the only ones not to put Matthew Stafford at #1 overall (each picking Aaron Curry). bartolis and mantlerose were the only ones to not put Jason Smith in the #2 slot.

* As a result, Stafford and Curry led with 8 correct predictions. 5 people picked B.J. "Sore Eagles" Raji at #9 to the Packers, while 3 people each correctly selected the draft positions of Andre Smith, Aaron Maybin, Malcolm Jenkins, Brian Cushing, and Hakeem Nicks.

* What the heck happened to Everette Brown? Everyone except Peter King had him going in their top 20 picks (average of 12.8), but he wasn't selected until the 11th pick of the second round -- #43 overall. Similarly, Michael Johnson was touted as a late-round draft pick by three of us bloggers, and he didn't go until the sixth pick of the third round.

* Apart from those, the worst in-round draft gaffe has to go to the MJD draft, which picked Tyson Jackson to go at #30. He went #3 overall. Good thing I had a limit of 10 "points" per selection.

* mantlerose was the only blogger to put Larry English in his mock draft (at #13), and the linebacker went #16 overall to the Chargers.

* Nobody -- neither amateur nor pro -- had Percy Harvin going to the Vikings, and only three of the 10 mock drafts had the Vikings taking a wide receiver. (Five picked an offensive lineman.) Can one of us replace Brad Childress in the Vikings' war room next year?

No comments: