2009 Minnesota Vikings Preview

While my NFL season predictions are usually significantly off, I've done a better job in recent years with my in-depth predictions and analysis of the Vikings going into the season:

2007 Vikings Predictions
2007 Results

2008 Vikings Predictions
2008 Results

Except where Adrian Peterson is concerned, I've done pretty well, injuries aside, in predicting individual stats of players and overall performance of the team, position by position. This year, I intend to be 15.37% better, with a margin of error of less than 6.71%.

(And I didn't just make those numbers up -- they've been in use for centuries.)

Here we go...

Quarterback
Brett Favre: 3,300 passing yards, 21 TDs, 19 Int.

Not much to talk about here, right?

As with all my position predictions, they're based on a full season of play, with no significant injuries or benchings. Whether Brett Favre will hold up for a whole season is unknown, but regardless of the quarterback, the Vikings passing numbers will probably look something like the above line, with maybe slightly fewer TDs and interceptions if Tarvaris Jackson plays a good portion of the season and higher interceptions if Sage Rosenfels is permitted to throw the ball (which he probably shouldn't be).

On the one level, Brett Favre will turn 40 a short time into the season, and 40-year-old players aren't particularly durable, especially ones who are coming off arm surgery. On the other hand, this is Brett Favre we're talking about, arguably the most durable player in NFL history. Still, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on him missing maybe two to three games with injury and Tarvaris Jackson doing a reasonable job as a fill-in.

Truthfully, Brett Favre could swing either way -- he could be great, chucking 25-30 TDs, and he could be awful, chucking 25-30 interceptions. Unfortunately, there's absolutely zero chance of him being benched, because it's clear that he's got more pull than Brad Childress, so, barring an injury, he'll be under center all season.

Position grade: B-

Running Back
Adrian Peterson: 1,450 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Chester Taylor: 500 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 TDs

The numbers for Adrian Peterson might seem a bit low, especially after he ran for 1,760 last year. But remember that, going into last year, nearly everyone (myself included) thought he would miss at least a few games (at the best) with an injury. Now, after being healthy for 16 games last year, everyone believes Peterson will do the same in 2009 and have completely forgotten his health concerns of 2007.

I believe that Peterson is neither especially fragile nor especially durable. Like most running backs, he'll probably miss a few series here and there, and maybe a game or two; with luck, the Vikings will do well enough that they can afford to rest him late in the season. Also, with Brett Favre in the lineup, the team will probably pass more, cutting into his numbers even further (because we all know that AP won't have a huge year just because Favre "opens up the field" for him).

Thus, we have my fairly conservative yardage total for Purple Jesus, along with a nice complementary stat line for Chester Taylor, whom I drafted in both my fantasy leagues this year, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. After doing his time on the practice squad, Albert Young has made the team as the #3 running back, with Ian Johnson lurking on the practice squad and ready for a call-up if something happens.

Position grade: A

Receivers
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs
Sidney Rice: 25 catches, 350 yards, 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 40 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs
Percy Harvin: 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 catches, 550 yards, 6 TDs

Bernard Berrian gets paid a lot for a guy who's never had 1,000 yards receiving in a season -- and this year he might not, just for the simple reason that Vikings QBs will have a number of good-but-not-great targets to throw to this season.

Someone from the Vikings' second tier of receivers will have to step up this year. Bobby Wade is reliable but unexciting; Sidney Rice shows occasional flashes but isn't reliable; Percy Harvin might be exciting, but it remains to be seen if the Vikings will use him properly; and wide receivers Jaymer Johnson and Darius Reynaud will be used mostly on special teams. Visanthe Shiancoe emerged last year as an above-average target and, as Mark Chmura and Bubba Franks can attest, Brett loves throwing to his tight ends in the red zone!

Still, the offensive focus of the team will still be on the run, thus limiting any spectacular passing numbers from the receiving corps. It's amazing how much you have to rein in your predictions when you've established a likely maximum passing total for the team (in this case, about 3,500 yards) and have so many players to spread out your predictions for. This unit may still surprise in 2009, but it'll probably be mostly Bernard Berrian (on the weekends he's not invisible, as he was all too often last year) and whoever has the hot hand on a week-to-week basis.

Position grade: C+

Offensive Line

It's a changing of the guard in Vikingland, as Matt Birk finally steps away from his center position, after 11 years in purple. (Technically, he'll still be wearing purple, but you know what I mean.) Second-year man John Sullivan replaces him, while rookie Phil Loadholt mercifully steps into the right tackle spot previously held by the likes of Ryan Cook and Artis Hicks. I've only seen a little of Loadholt in preseason, but I'm impressed by the footwork and mobility from such a huge man. At the very least, he has to be an upgrade over Cook.

(Though I could ask why, if it only took $12 million over three years to keep Birk, why didn't we re-sign him? It's not like we didn't have twice as much money to throw at another aging star...)

The left side of the line is solid as ever, with Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie. If Loadholt and Sullivan can get it done, the O-line could be one of the best in the league.

Position grade: B+

Defensive Line

Here's where the real fun begins. Jared Allen is a beast. Pat Williams and Kevin Williams are probably the best interior tackle combination in the league. And Ray Edwards...well, he's all right, I suppose. As I said last year, he's effectively interchangeable with Brian Robison, and the pair combined for 7.5 sacks. Assuming that suspensions don't rob us of the "Williams Wall" in 2009 -- and it looks like they won't -- this has the makings to be a dominant defensive line, playing equally well against the run and the pass.

Backups Jayme Mitchell, Fred Evans, and Letroy Guion hopefully won't see too much time on the field, but even if they do, the presence of the other members of the line could open up some nice opportunities for them. Overall, this is going to be a fun group to watch, swallowing up running backs (perhaps literally, if Pat Williams has skipped lunch) and chasing opposing QBs all day long.

Position grade: A+

Linebacker

If EJ Henderson can recover from the dislocated toe that cost him most of 2008 -- and really, unless you're Deion Sanders, a bad toe doesn't sound like a career-threatening injury -- he might still only be the second-best linebacker on the field for the Vikings in 2009. In Henderson's absence, Chad Greenway emerged as a force to be reckoned with in 2008, notching 84 tackles and 5 1/2 sacks and seemingly being in on every play, both on his side of the field and elsewhere. He'll probably never be considered an elite linebacker, but as long as he flies around the field like he does, I'll be OK with his lack of recognition.

Ben Leber fills out the other linebacker spot, and he's an underrated player who I think would get more attention if he didn't have such stellar teammates. Unfortunately, as shown last year when Henderson went down (Napoleon Harris!), the team's depth at linebacker is almost non-existant. Erin Henderson, Jasper Brinkley, and special-teams ace Heath Farwell are penciled into the backup spots, but that pencil will need an eraser if something goes wrong with the "big three." Let's hope it doesn't.

Position grade: A-

Secondary

With Darren Sharper signing with New Orleans, Tyrell Johnson steps into his vacated safety spot. Johnson looked a little overwhelmed at times last year, having to start as a rookie in place of the injured Madieu Williams. Hopefully, he's used that extra year to learn the position and can take over admirably for the departed Sharper. Williams, his safety-mate, was solid after returning from a back injury that cost him the first half of the season.

The other two corners are the same as last year, if not a little more well paid. Both Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield signed big deals in the offseason that will keep them both in Viking purple for years to come. That could be a questionable decision in the future, with Winfield having just turned 32 and Griffin not being able to keep up with elite receivers at times last year, but both should provide at least decent play for a couple more years, provided the defensive line can keep quarterbacks on their toes. And Winfield should be good for at least half a dozen or so highlight-reel tackles each year.

As with the linebackers, depth is a major issue at the position. Benny Sapp and Karl Paymah will likely compete for the nickel and dime spots, and neither one exactly inspires confidence. An interesting player is third-round draft pick Asher Allen, tabbed as "Antoine Winfield, Jr." because of his relatively small size (5'10").

Position grade: B

Special Teams

Speaking of Darren Sharper, remember when the Vikings signed him in 2005 and everyone thought, "Oh, no, a Packer!" (Well, I did anyway.) Then we signed Ryan Longwell in 2006. And this year...well, you know. Suffice to say, Longwell's earned his keep as a Viking, converting 84.3% of field goal attempts in three years, including 6-of-6 last year from over 50 yards. Do you think he prefers the dome to Lambeau Field?

Chris Kluwe had an up-and-down year last season. His 47.6 yards per punt were phenomenal, but he was often blamed for several huge returns, including four touchdowns. While I'll admit that hang time is a good thing, the difference between "booming a punt" and "outkicking the coverage" is usually dependent on how well the rest of your team covers downfield. A healthy Heath Farwell, who missed all of last season, should do wonders for the coverage unit.

After a predictably awful year of letting Maurice Hicks return kickoffs, the Vikings are turning to rookies Percy Harvin as their primary kick returner and Percy Harvin as the punt returner. Both might switch off at the position in 2009, with Darius Reynaud likely also getting some touches as a return man.

Position grade: B-

Overall
Let's face it: Even without Brett Favre, this was looking like the most stacked Vikings team in recent history. The addition of Favre will probably provide confidence, if not actual performance, to an already potent team, but health, as always, will be a key component to a successful season.

So far, at least, the Vikings have been fortunate in that regards. Going into last year, Heath Farwell and Madeiu Williams were unavailable, and EJ Henderson only lasted until the fourth game. While none of them are as important to the team as Adrian Peterson or Jared Allen, enough little injuries can pile up to the point that they have a significant effect on the team. And three of the Vikings' main issues from last year -- special teams coverage, pass defense, and poor middle-linebacker play -- can be, in part, directly attributed to those three injuries.

Then there's the quarterback position. I won't get into my views on Brett Favre -- you're either sick of them already or you agree with me 100% -- and there's no way to actually simulate how the Vikings would have been with Favre and without him. I stand by my assertion, though, that any positive effect he has on the team will be strictly mental. People, probably including opposing defenses and coaches, will respect the name of Brett Favre, even if the player is a shell of his former self. His half-game-plus of play against the Texans was nice, but that needs to carry on over a full season, or about 30 times as much as it did two Mondays ago. I'll try to resist the urge to throw something at the TV every time he makes a bonehead play (especially when the announcers write it off as "having fun" or other nonsense), but this could be the most trying season ever for me as a Vikings fan -- amazing when you consider that, by and large, the team's got a very good chance of going to the Super Bowl.

At the very least, this team won't be boring this season, that's for sure.

Projected Finish:
11-5, 1st in NFC North

2009 NFL Predictions

I'll give the same disclaimer (or excuse) for these predictions that I gave last year: Predictions are silly and only half-educated guesses that are only revisited by the predictor when they go spectacularly right. Of course, I won't be like that; I'll actually revisit mine in February, but that's a long ways off. For now, bask in my half-educatedness!

y - Division Winner
x - Wild Card

AFC East
1. New England - y
2. Buffalo - x
3. Miami
4. NY Jets

Sure, there's a school of though that says the Patriots won't come all the way back to where they were in 2007. And they won't, but a healthy Tom Brady should be good for at least 12-13 wins. Miami overachieved last year, I think, and the Jets will have a rookie QB under center, which rarely works unless you only consider last year. The Bills in the playoffs? Sure, why not? Terrell Owens is always good for his new team, at least for a year.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh - y
2. Cleveland
3. Baltimore
4. Cincinnati

After Pittsburgh, this is a tough division to call. Cincinnati and Cleveland both had a ton of injuries last year and should rebound fairly well, while people will soon realize that Joe Flacco wasn't really all that good. Still, I could see 2-4 in just about any order. (What a cop-out!)

AFC South
1. Tennessee - y
2. Indianapolis - x
3. Jacksonville
4. Houston

Just because nobody expects Tennessee to repeat, I have to pick them. What people don't realize is the amazing offensive line they had last year -- Titans QBs were only sacked on 2.6% of their dropbacks in 2009, compared to a league average of 5.9%. And I think the loss of Tony Dungy will weaken Indy just enough to keep them as a 10-11 win team. Jacksonville probably wasn't as bad as it showed last year, and I'm tired of waiting for Houston to finally do something.

AFC West
1. San Diego - y
2. Oakland
3. Denver
4. Kansas City

Like the AFC North, here's another sure-fire division winner and three also-rans. The difference is that I think the AFCN teams might be pretty good, overall, while Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City could all finish under .500.

Joe Buck Division NFC East
1. Philadelphia - y
2. Dallas - x
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

I think Philly has the potential to be the best team in the NFC (along with another you can probably guess), largely on the strength of their defense. And I think that the loss of T.O. won't hurt the Cowboys as much as people think, while the loss of Plaxico Burress has already shown that it hurts the Giants. And the Redskins? Well, who knows what Daniel Snyder's doing up in DC.

NFC North
1. Minnesota - y
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

Even Brett Favre can't screw this team up too badly -- I think. I admit that I'm very close to picking Green Bay as my wild card, but I think the defense will let them down just a little too often this year; still, 9-10 wins is likely. The QB with the second-most interceptions in the league in 2008, behind Favre, was Jay Cutler. This probably means that the Packers' defense is a nice sleeper pick in fantasy football. But not the Lions' defense. Stay away from the Lions' defense. (OK, really, I think any team, the Lions included, are capable of about 4 wins.)

NFC South
1. Atlanta - y
2. New Orleans - x
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

New Orleans has no defense and no running game, but man, can Drew Brees chuck it! Still, those shortcomings will be enough to keep them out of the top spot in the division, which I think goes to Atlanta, which only helped itself by bringing aboard Tony Gonzalez to help out Matt Ryan. Jake Delhomme is Brett Favre, Jr., capable of easily losing a game with an interception-fest, like he did in the playoffs against Arizona last year. I think this year will be more "bad Jake" than "good Jake." Tampa Bay is the definition of "rebuilding." Remember what I said about the Lions winning maybe 4 games this year? The Bucs would likely kill for that.

NFC West
1. Seattle - y
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis

I agonized over this one for a while, but in the end I picked Seattle to rebound from its injury-plagued 2008, in part because I needed to pick a fourth new division winner and in part because -- let's face it people -- nobody really knows how Arizona suddenly played well last January after being kicked around like a rag doll in December. San Fran's a trendy pick this year, but I don't know if I buy them just yet. And St. Louis might fight with Tampa Bay for the #1 draft pick. Marc Bulger looks absolutely finished.

Well, that's it! Check back with me in six months to see how stupid I was!

Winter vs. Berry: The Showdown!

Matthew Berry's at it again.

Some of you might remember my criticism of ESPN's "The Talented Mr. Roto" and his outrageous predictions for the 2008, and it appears I wasn't the only one. In this year's article Berry acknowledges the criticism with several excerpts from his comments and mail bag (though apparently not from my blog; I'm terribly offended) and re-iterates his point that his "bold predictions" were supposed to be out-on-a-limb, rather unlikely to be met, and meant to improve your draft strategy. He says:

The point of this is not that I nail every prediction. In fact, I'm going to tell you that the only prediction that I guarantee here is that I'm not going to get all of these correct. Especially since we still have three weeks of preseason to go.

But, if you use this correctly, the idea is simply that it helps you draft. For example, in last year's article, I said eight other tight ends will have a better fantasy season than Antonio Gates. Technically, that was wrong, as Gates finished fourth in fantasy scoring among tight ends.

But, if you took that to mean, in essence, that I felt Gates was overvalued (he was generally the first tight end off the board last year) and ended up passing on him and waiting two rounds later for someone like Dallas Clark (I predicted he would be the No. 1 tight end, also wrong, but he did finish two points out of second and ahead of Gates), then this article worked for you last year. And you still get to give me crap for getting it wrong. See? Everyone's a winner.

So, why not say "Gates is overvalued," rather than come up with some "bold" prediction? And what excuse do you have for saying "Ben Obomanu will reach 800 yards and six touchdowns"? (prediction #46; Obomanu finished with 180 yards and 1 TD." I don't think anyone was unjustly undervaluing Obomanu.

The reason is shock value and "wow" factor. Saying Gates won't be the #1 tight end is like saying, to some people, oh, that Brett Favre won't have a good year. Both will probably be true, but people who don't pay too much attention to football won't know that and will argue vehemently for the "conventional wisdom." Controversy = hits on your web site. If that was the goal, mission accomplished.

With all that being said, it's clear that Berry is in a bit of damage-control mode this year, as his predictions are much, much tamer and I can't argue with too many of them. In fact, I find myself outright agreeing with several. But not all of them. And this year, rather than ragging on the man after the season is over, I'm going to put myself out on a limb and grade his predictions, and at the end of the year, we'll see who is more "right."

Scoring will be simple. I'll give a "YES" or "NO" for each of the 32 predictions (the real, football-based ones), based on whether or not I think it'll happen. I'll assume that Berry labels each of them as "YES." At the end of the year, we'll total up the number we got correct, and highest score wins.

Unfortunately, he doesn't number this year's predictions, which means I'll have to reprint them, word for word, and number them myself for easy reference at the end of the season. Feel free to chime in with your own views.

On to the predictions:

1. Chris "Beanie" Wells stays healthy enough to get at least 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns. YES.
   
2. Roddy White will lead the NFL in receiving yards. YES. Bold, but I like it. Jake Delhomme is due for a meltdown, and that'll hurt Steve Smith.
   
3. Joe Flacco finishes the year as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. NO. Flacco is highly overrated because his defense is good.
   
4. Terrell Owens finishes the year outside the top 25 fantasy wide receivers. You heard me. NO. I think he'll be down a bit, but even Trent Edwards can't screw him up too badly.
   
5. Jonathan Stewart finishes with more fantasy points than DeAngelo Williams. NO. Williams is overrated, thanks to his huge TD numbers, but he'll still get more carries and points than Stewart.
   
6. Devin Hester and Greg Olsen combine for 1,800 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. NO. Jay Cutler can't fix the mess that is the Bears' receiving corps.
   
7. Chris Henry has a better fantasy season than Laveranues Coles. NO. Of course, the Jets lost Brett Favre so they don't know how to pass any more.
   
8. Jamal Lewis has 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, or the equivalent fantasy points. NO. Nice to throw in the "or the equivalent" phrase to CYA, but I still think Lewis is done.
   
9. Without T.O. in town, Tony Romo has the best fantasy season of his career. NO. I think Romo will be fine, but the man had 4,211 yards and 36 TDs two years ago. That's tough to top.
   
10. Peyton Hillis will end the year with the most fantasy points of any Broncos running back. You heard me. YES. Hey someone's gotta run the ball in Denver.
    
11. Brandon Pettigrew finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy tight end. YES. Bad/young QBs love a good tight end.
    
12. Ryan Grant goes for better than 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns. NO.
    
13. Eighty-five receptions and 1,000 yards for Owen Daniels. NO. Daniels is really good and really underrated, but the Texans still have Andre Johnson.
    
14. Anthony Gonzalez, whose career high in receiving yards is 664, doubles that this season. NO. A Colts WR might have 1,300 receiving yards, but it'll be Reggie Wayne.
    
15. David Garrard will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year. Just like last season. YES.
    
16. Matt Cassel will not be. In fact, he finishes outside the top 15. YES.
    
17. Anthony Fasano, meet the end zone. You two will find each other 10 times this season. YES. Sure, why not?
    
18. Bernard Berrian gets more than 1,200 yards and nine scores. NO. Having Brett Favre means Berrian won't have to settle for those weak-armed QBs like the ones he had last year that limited him to a paltry 20.1 yards per reception, second-best in the league.
    
19. Eight hundred yards and seven touchdowns for Joey Galloway. YES. If he's healthy Galloway can catch 800 yards' worth of passes from anyone.
    
20. Pierre Thomas is a top-10 fantasy running back this year. And Saints fans start wearing berets to games. You heard me. YES. But I'll disregard the beret thing.
    
21. Brandon Jacobs scores 20 touchdowns. NO. How will the Giants get that close to the end zone with Eli Manning battling Brett Favre for the league interception lead?
    
22. Dustin Keller gets 800 yards, eight touchdowns and is one of the top eight fantasy tight ends this season. YES.
    
23. More than 1,500 total yards and eight scores (or the fantasy points equivalent) for Darren McFadden. NO. I dunno, but I think we're going to look back in 10 years and find that Felix Jones was the better Alabama RB who entered the league in 2008. Plus, being with the Raiders automatically subtracts 25% (or more) from your fantasy potential
    
24. Brian Westbrook plays all 16 games. NO. Hasn't happened yet, see no reason to start now.
    
25. Trendy preseason favorite Rashard Mendenhall finishes with fewer fantasy points than Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Heath Miller. YES.
    
26. Philip Rivers ends up with 225 fantasy points or fewer, which last year would have put him ninth among quarterbacks. (To put that numerically, I think he throws for fewer than 3,400 yards and 25 touchdowns). YES.
    
27. Shaun Hill wins the starting quarterback job, throws for 3,000-plus yards and has at least 26 total touchdowns. NO. He'll be the starter, but he won't get those kind of TD numbers.
    
28. T.J. Duckett scores double-digit touchdowns. Julius Jones has more than 1,200 total yards. Both have solid fantasy value this year. You heard me. NO. I could believe Jones, but absolutely not Duckett.
    
29. Donnie Avery has more than 1,000 yards receiving. And yes, I know he's injured and most likely will miss the start of the season. That's how much I like him and the Rams' revamped offensive line. NO. But I don't like Marc Bulger.
    
30. Antonio Bryant finishes outside the top 30 of fantasy wide receivers. YES.
    
31. Nate Washington, on the other hand, finishes inside the top 30. YES.
    
32. More than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns for Chris Cooley. NO. Put simply, expecting 1,000 yards from any TE is asking for trouble.
    

And one of his non-football predictions:

At some point in the next 12 months, a blog will print a story about me and every "fact" will actually be, well, factual.

Already happened, man.