Winter vs. Berry: The Results!

Here's a post nearly six months in the making. And boy, have I been salivating over this one.

Back in November of 2008, I stumbled across ESPN fantasy "guru" Matthew Berry's "bold predictions" for the upcoming season, most of which were so absurd as to be laughable. I wonder if he drafted Ben Obamanu and Troy Smith for his fantasy team. Probably not. At the end of the season, I dissected his predictions and the results were, shall we say, less than stellar. Of his 41 "real" predictions, only three came true, an abysmal 7.3% rate.

But hey, who was I to talk? It's not like I made any predictions. So, when Berry posted his 2009 predictions, one for each of the 32 NFL teams, I decided not just to track them but to try and guess which ones I thought would come true and which ones wouldn't. At the end of the season, I'd see who was more right. He'd score a point for every prediction he got right, and I'd score a point for each of his predictions that I agreed with that was right and each one I disagreed with that was wrong.

And now comes the day of reckoning. Here we go! Berry's prediction is below, followed by my Yes/No vote on, on the next line, Berry's and my results -- Y for a correct prediction, N for an incorrect one. When talking about fantasy points and ranks, he's probably talking about the scoring in the ESPN fantasy leagues, but I don't play those and don't have access to them, so I'll be using the scoring and ranks as used on player pages on pro-football-reference.com.


Chris "Beanie" Wells stays healthy enough to get at least 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns. YES.

N/N. 936 yards and 7 TDs. Very close, but I'm going to be strict.

Roddy White will lead the NFL in receiving yards. YES. Bold, but I like it. Jake Delhomme is due for a meltdown, and that'll hurt Steve Smith.

N/N. He was 13th.

Joe Flacco finishes the year as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. NO. Flacco is highly overrated because his defense is good.

N/Y. According to PFR, he was 17th. And slightly less overrated, but still overrated.

Terrell Owens finishes the year outside the top 25 fantasy wide receivers. You heard me. NO. I think he'll be down a bit, but even Trent Edwards can't screw him up too badly.

Y/N. According to PFR, he was 26th. But I'll play fair and count it as a "No" for me.

Jonathan Stewart finishes with more fantasy points than DeAngelo Williams. NO. Williams is overrated, thanks to his huge TD numbers, but he'll still get more carries and points than Stewart.

Y/N. 193 to 179, according to PFR. At this point, Berry leads me 2-1. Oh noes!

Devin Hester and Greg Olsen combine for 1,800 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. NO. Jay Cutler can't fix the mess that is the Bears' receiving corps.

N/Y. Not so much. 1,369 and 11.

Chris Henry has a better fantasy season than Laveranues Coles. NO. Of course, the Jets lost Brett Favre so they don't know how to pass any more.

N/Y. I debated tossing out this question entirely in the scorekeeping, considering what happened to Henry falls outside the normal bad luck of an injury. But he was out hurt when he died anyway and probably wouldn't have made up the 82-36 margin Coles "won" the matchup by.

Jamal Lewis has 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, or the equivalent fantasy points. NO. Nice to throw in the "or the equivalent" phrase to CYA, but I still think Lewis is done.

N/Y. 588 yards, zero(!) TDs, and retired. Can't get much more done than that.

Without T.O. in town, Tony Romo has the best fantasy season of his career. NO. I think Romo will be fine, but the man had 4,211 yards and 36 TDs two years ago. That's tough to top.

N/Y. According to PFR, Romo had 334 fantasy points in 2009, compared to 371 in 2007.

Peyton Hillis will end the year with the most fantasy points of any Broncos running back. You heard me. YES. Hey someone's gotta run the ball in Denver.

N/N. Hillis had 54 whole rushing yards. Ick.

Brandon Pettigrew finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy tight end. YES. Bad/young QBs love a good tight end.

N/N. He was #25.

Ryan Grant goes for better than 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns. NO.

N/Y. 1,446 yards and 11 TDs. If he gets a point on me for T.O., I claim a point on him here.

Eighty-five receptions and 1,000 yards for Owen Daniels. NO. Daniels is really good and really underrated, but the Texans still have Andre Johnson.

N/Y. Daniels had 40 catches and 519 yards in eight games, so he might have managed it had he stayed healthy.

Anthony Gonzalez, whose career high in receiving yards is 664, doubles that this season. NO. A Colts WR might have 1,300 receiving yards, but it'll be Reggie Wayne.

N/Y. But T.O. wasn't my worst WR draft pick in that league! Yes, I drafted Gonzalez, too. Thank heavens I found Miles Austin a month into the season.

David Garrard will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year. Just like last season. YES.

N/N. PFR says Garrard was 15th in 2009 and 12th last year. At this point, Berry's on an 0-10 streak.

Matt Cassel will not be. In fact, he finishes outside the top 15. YES.

Y/Y. This wasn't exactly the toughest prediction. The Chiefs will regret this move for years to come.

Anthony Fasano, meet the end zone. You two will find each other 10 times this season. YES. Sure, why not?

N/N. Because he's Anthony Fasano, that's why not! He had 2 TDs.

Bernard Berrian gets more than 1,200 yards and nine scores. NO. Having Brett Favre means Berrian won't have to settle for those weak-armed QBs like the ones he had last year that limited him to a paltry 20.1 yards per reception, second-best in the league.

N/Y. Favre was better than expected, but all his big plays went to Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Berrian had 618 yards and 4 TDs.

Eight hundred yards and seven touchdowns for Joey Galloway. YES. If he's healthy Galloway can catch 800 yards' worth of passes from anyone.

N/N. Yeah, about that. Galloway had 67 yards playing for Pittsburgh and New England.

Pierre Thomas is a top-10 fantasy running back this year. And Saints fans start wearing berets to games. You heard me. YES. But I'll disregard the beret thing.

N/N. He had a nice season but was in a three-way RB committee in New Orleans. #20 according to PFR.

Brandon Jacobs scores 20 touchdowns. NO. How will the Giants get that close to the end zone with Eli Manning battling Brett Favre for the league interception lead?

N/Y. More like 6 TDs. And FWIW, Eli doubled Brett's interceptions, 14-7.

Dustin Keller gets 800 yards, eight touchdowns and is one of the top eight fantasy tight ends this season. YES.

N/N. 522 yards, 2 TDs, and #20. So much for my theory about young QBs and tight ends.

More than 1,500 total yards and eight scores (or the fantasy points equivalent) for Darren McFadden. NO. I dunno, but I think we're going to look back in 10 years and find that Felix Jones was the better Alabama RB who entered the league in 2008. Plus, being with the Raiders automatically subtracts 25% (or more) from your fantasy potential

N/Y. 602 yards and 1 TD.

Brian Westbrook plays all 16 games. NO. Hasn't happened yet, see no reason to start now.

N/Y. 8 games.

Trendy preseason favorite Rashard Mendenhall finishes with fewer fantasy points than Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Heath Miller. YES.

N/N. Goes to show what we know. Mendenhall had 185 points, Miller 115, Parker 51, Moore 45.

Philip Rivers ends up with 225 fantasy points or fewer, which last year would have put him ninth among quarterbacks. (To put that numerically, I think he throws for fewer than 3,400 yards and 25 touchdowns). YES.

N/N. I don't know why I was so down on Rivers. He had 4,254 yards, 28 TDs, and 331 fantasy points.

Shaun Hill wins the starting quarterback job, throws for 3,000-plus yards and has at least 26 total touchdowns. NO. He'll be the starter, but he won't get those kind of TD numbers.

N/Y. Well, he was the starter for 6 games, notching 943 yards and 5 TDs.

T.J. Duckett scores double-digit touchdowns. Julius Jones has more than 1,200 total yards. Both have solid fantasy value this year. You heard me. NO. I could believe Jones, but absolutely not Duckett.

N/Y. Jones had 885 yards (and yes, I drafted him in that league) and Duckett didn't play.

Donnie Avery has more than 1,000 yards receiving. And yes, I know he's injured and most likely will miss the start of the season. That's how much I like him and the Rams' revamped offensive line. NO. But I don't like Marc Bulger.

N/Y. 589 yards for Avery.

Antonio Bryant finishes outside the top 30 of fantasy wide receivers. YES.

Y/Y. 50th. Not exactly a stretch, prediction-wise.

Nate Washington, on the other hand, finishes inside the top 30. YES.

N/N. 41st.

More than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns for Chris Cooley. NO. Put simply, expecting 1,000 yards from any TE is asking for trouble.

N/Y. 332 yards and 2 TDs. If he only would have tripled his numbers...


Results
Berry nails 4 of his 32 predictions, an awesome 12.5% correct. A few, notably the Wells and Grant predictions, are close enough to essentially be correct, and a few (like Daniels) were ruined by injuries, but, at best, he'd only have about 25% correct. Combined with last year's 3-for-41, that gives him a cumulative 7-for-73, or 9.6% success rate, thus proving that the fantasy prediction business is something pretty much anyone can do. How can I get a job doing this?

Meanwhile, I score on 18 of 32, largely on the strength of my calling "BS" on 16 of Berry's 28 incorrect predictions. But even at the start of this exercise, I felt a little funny just going off someone else's work. Ideally, I would have made predictions of my own and, at the end of the season, we would have compared our predictions and seen who got the most right.

The problem with that is that it would have been tough to judge the "riskiness" of my predictions. Is it more of a reach to say that Bernard Berrian will have 1,200 yards and 9 scores or that, say, Visanthe Shiancoe will be a top 5 tight end? (He was #6, according to PFR.) I'd hate for my predictions to be too timid (or too risky) and for the comparison to be less equal than it could be. But hey, if Matthew's reading this, I'd love a "prediction competition" for next year. Especially since it looks like I won't have to do much better than a 10% success rate.

2009 NFL Predictions Revisited

Earlier this week, I looked back at my Vikings predictions for 2009, and now it's time to revisit my overall predictions for the 2009 NFL season.

AFC
AFC East Predictions
1. New England - y
2. Buffalo - x
3. Miami
4. NY Jets

AFC East Actual
1. New England - y
2. NY Jets - x
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

Someone will have to explain to me why I was high on Buffalo. At least I got it right when I said New England will rebound and Miami will regress.

AFC North Predictions
1. Pittsburgh - y
2. Cleveland
3. Baltimore
4. Cincinnati

AFC North Actual
1. Cincinnati - y
2. Baltimore - x
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

Another stinker of a division, and another "What was I thinking?" regarding Cleveland. I thought at least one of their QBs would be good.

AFC South Predictions
1. Tennessee - y
2. Indianapolis - x
3. Jacksonville
4. Houston

AFC South Actual
1. Indianapolis - y
2. Houston
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

My faith in the Titans was sorely misguided, though they still might have the best O-line in football. Titans' QBs were only sacked 3.1% of the time, and their primary running back had a pretty good year, I heard. They can even make Vince Young and Kerry Collins look passable.

AFC West Predictions
1. San Diego - y
2. Oakland
3. Denver
4. Kansas City

AFC North Actual
1. San Diego - y
2. Denver
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

Hey, there's one division champ I got right! I also said, "Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City could all finish under .500," and Denver just barely avoided that sentence, with an 8-8 record (after a 6-0 start, a collapse of Vikings-esque proportions).

NFC
NFC East Predictions
1. Philadelphia - y
2. Dallas - x
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

NFC East Actual
1. Dallas - y
2. Philadelphia - x
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

Not too bad, and very nearly perfect, if not for Philly's collapse in the final game of the season against Dallas (which I'm not complaining about, mind you). "And I think that the loss of T.O. won't hurt the Cowboys as much as people think." Granted, unearthing Miles Austin helped a bit.

NFC North Predictions
1. Minnesota - y
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

NFC North Actual
1. Minnesota - y
2. Green Bay - x
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

Spot on! Except for Green Bay making the playoffs, though I did say that "I admit that I'm very close to picking Green Bay as my wild card, but I think the defense will let them down just a little too often this year." The defense gelled, and the Packers were (sadly) very good.

NFC South Predictions
1. Atlanta - y
2. New Orleans - x
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

NFC South Actual
1. New Orleans - y
2. Atlanta
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

"New Orleans has no defense and no running game." Yeah, they mostly fixed that, and it took them all the way to the championship. And how on earth did Carolina win eight games? Oh yeah, by benching Jake Delhomme...

NFC West Predictions
1. Seattle - y
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis

AFC North Actual
1. Arizona - y
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle
4. St. Louis

So maybe Arizona is for real, after all. Well, at least until Kurt Warner retires -- oh, hang on... "St. Louis might fight with Tampa Bay for the #1 draft pick." Silly me, I forgot about Detroit sneaking in with the #2 pick.

My mantra, as always, was that I must pick four new division winners each year. There were, in fact, five new division winners in 2009. If I was to take a very early look at next year, I'd say that Arizona, Cincinnati, and Minnesota (depending on the Vikings' QB situation, though with Green Bay's solid play, it may not matter) will have the toughest time repeating, with New England and Dallas (challenged by the Jets and Eagles, respectively) could also have issues. Those predictions are probably about as useful as 2011 Super Bowl odds, but hey, it's all in fun, right? Nobody's really being held accountable for any of this, are they?

Wait until this weekend.

2009 Vikings predictions revisited

So, how'd I do?

Quarterback Prediction:
Brett Favre: 3,300 passing yards, 21 TDs, 19 Int.

Quarterback Actual:
Brett Favre: 4,202 passing yards, 33 TDs, 7 Int.

So I was a little off, but be honest -- you never saw this coming, did you?

There's little more that can be said about Favre's remarkable season, mostly coming after he crossed the age-40 threshold. I did somewhat predict his unpredictability, saying "he could be great, chucking 25-30 TDs, and he could be awful, chucking 25-30 interceptions." Technically, I was wrong, as he exceeded 30 TDs, but I wasn't exactly complaining. In fact, it was the most TDs Favre has chucked since 1997, and he set a personal mark in completion percentage and lowest interception percentage. Makes you wonder what he'll be like in 10 years.

Running Back Prediction:
Adrian Peterson: 1,450 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Chester Taylor: 500 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 TDs

Running Back Actual:
Adrian Peterson: 1,383 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards, 18 TDs
Chester Taylor: 338 rushing yards, 389 receiving yards, 2 TDs

Here's one where I wasn't too far off, though Adrian Peterson's newly found skill as a receiver was a pleasant surprise. Believing that Favre wouldn't pass particularly well, I predicted higher rushing numbers for the Peterson/Taylor duo, which received 92.6% of all carries by Vikings running backs (if one counts Jeff Dugan and Percy Harvin as running backs). Overall, I predicted 2,450 total yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs for the duo, and they managed 2,546 and 20, so I'll call this one a win. If I was keeping score, that is.

Receivers Prediction:
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs
Sidney Rice: 25 catches, 350 yards, 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 40 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs
Percy Harvin: 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 catches, 550 yards, 6 TDs

Receivers Actual:
Sidney Rice: 83 catches, 1,312 yards, 8 TD
Percy Harvin: 60 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDs
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 618 yards, 4 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 53 catches, 556 yards, 11 TDs

I wrote, "Someone from the Vikings' second tier of receivers will have to step up this year... Sidney Rice shows occasional flashes but isn't reliable." Well, he's reliable now, and his Pro Bowl season definitely counts as "stepping up." If Favre retires, it'll be interesting to see how Rice's numbers respond, but he definitely proved me wrong this season.

If the previous category counted as a "win," this one definitely goes down as a "loss." I did somehow nail Bernard Berrian's 55 receptions and came within six yards of Shiancoe's yardage total, but Rice and Harvin exceeded all expectations and Berrian managed just a puzzling 11.2 yards per reception, after averaging nearly double that (20.1) in 1998. Other than the running backs, no other Viking receiver had more than 10 catches, and Bobby Wade had 36 catches for 367 yards and three TDs -- for Kansas City.


I don't have the energy right now to do a piecemeal dissection of the offensive line, special teams, and defense, so here's a Cliff's Notes looks at some of my best -- and worst -- predictions about those units for 2009.

"If Loadholt and Sullivan can get it done, the O-line could be one of the best in the league."

I've already discussed my opinion of the offensive line, which failed to open pretty much any holes for the second half of the season, even while it improved in pass protection. For the record, the Vikings were a mere 22nd in the league in yards per carry, and Vikings QBs were sacked on 5.8% of their dropbacks, 13th in the league. The line was average, at best.

"this has the makings to be a dominant defensive line, playing equally well against the run and the pass."

It had its moments, good and bad, but the defense began and ended, for much of the season, with the play of the defensive line. The starting foursome of Allen, Williams, Williams, and Edwards racked up 31 sacks, more than eight other entire teams.

"He'll probably never be considered an elite linebacker, but as long as he flies around the field like he does, I'll be OK with his lack of recognition."

That was in reference to Chad Greenway, who did indeed continue to fly around the field, leading the team in tackles.

"Unfortunately, as shown last year when Henderson went down (Napoleon Harris!), the team's depth at linebacker is almost non-existant."

For a rookie, Jaspar Brinkley did an adequate job filling in when EJ Henderson went down in December, and, depending on how Henderson's recovery from a broken leg goes, he might have more of a chance to build on his rookie season going forward.

"That could be a questionable decision in the future, with Winfield having just turned 32 and Griffin not being able to keep up with elite receivers at times last year, but both should provide at least decent play for a couple more years, provided the defensive line can keep quarterbacks on their toes."

By the end of the season, Antoine Winfield was a nickel corner and Cedric Griffin, while decent, again struggled in coverage when the defensive line couldn't produce pressure (though the weak safety play of Tyrell Johnson and Madeiu Williams contributed to these difficulties). With three of their four defensive backs (all but Johnson) locked into big-money, long-term deals (though Winfield's has a semi-"out" if he becomes a fifth DB), improvement in this area might prove difficult.

"Suffice to say, Longwell's earned his keep as a Viking."

Amen to that. In his four years in purple, Longwell has converted on 86.5% of field goal opportunities, including 26 of 28 this year. Tack on a league-high 54 extra-point attempts, and you have a 132-point season, the highest of the 13-year veteran's career. "Four more years!"

"the Vikings are turning to rookies Percy Harvin as their primary kick returner and Percy Harvin as the punt returner."

I'm not quite sure what I meant there, but Percy Harvin as a kick returner worked out fairly well, I'd say.

Projected Finish:
11-5, 1st in NFC North

Only off by one game, and that was with Brett Favre being mediocre. I think I expected more out of the defense and the running game to compensate, but however we got there, I'll take it.

2009 Minnesota Vikings Preview

While my NFL season predictions are usually significantly off, I've done a better job in recent years with my in-depth predictions and analysis of the Vikings going into the season:

2007 Vikings Predictions
2007 Results

2008 Vikings Predictions
2008 Results

Except where Adrian Peterson is concerned, I've done pretty well, injuries aside, in predicting individual stats of players and overall performance of the team, position by position. This year, I intend to be 15.37% better, with a margin of error of less than 6.71%.

(And I didn't just make those numbers up -- they've been in use for centuries.)

Here we go...

Quarterback
Brett Favre: 3,300 passing yards, 21 TDs, 19 Int.

Not much to talk about here, right?

As with all my position predictions, they're based on a full season of play, with no significant injuries or benchings. Whether Brett Favre will hold up for a whole season is unknown, but regardless of the quarterback, the Vikings passing numbers will probably look something like the above line, with maybe slightly fewer TDs and interceptions if Tarvaris Jackson plays a good portion of the season and higher interceptions if Sage Rosenfels is permitted to throw the ball (which he probably shouldn't be).

On the one level, Brett Favre will turn 40 a short time into the season, and 40-year-old players aren't particularly durable, especially ones who are coming off arm surgery. On the other hand, this is Brett Favre we're talking about, arguably the most durable player in NFL history. Still, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on him missing maybe two to three games with injury and Tarvaris Jackson doing a reasonable job as a fill-in.

Truthfully, Brett Favre could swing either way -- he could be great, chucking 25-30 TDs, and he could be awful, chucking 25-30 interceptions. Unfortunately, there's absolutely zero chance of him being benched, because it's clear that he's got more pull than Brad Childress, so, barring an injury, he'll be under center all season.

Position grade: B-

Running Back
Adrian Peterson: 1,450 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Chester Taylor: 500 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 TDs

The numbers for Adrian Peterson might seem a bit low, especially after he ran for 1,760 last year. But remember that, going into last year, nearly everyone (myself included) thought he would miss at least a few games (at the best) with an injury. Now, after being healthy for 16 games last year, everyone believes Peterson will do the same in 2009 and have completely forgotten his health concerns of 2007.

I believe that Peterson is neither especially fragile nor especially durable. Like most running backs, he'll probably miss a few series here and there, and maybe a game or two; with luck, the Vikings will do well enough that they can afford to rest him late in the season. Also, with Brett Favre in the lineup, the team will probably pass more, cutting into his numbers even further (because we all know that AP won't have a huge year just because Favre "opens up the field" for him).

Thus, we have my fairly conservative yardage total for Purple Jesus, along with a nice complementary stat line for Chester Taylor, whom I drafted in both my fantasy leagues this year, just in case the worst case scenario occurs. After doing his time on the practice squad, Albert Young has made the team as the #3 running back, with Ian Johnson lurking on the practice squad and ready for a call-up if something happens.

Position grade: A

Receivers
Bernard Berrian: 55 catches, 900 yards, 7 TDs
Sidney Rice: 25 catches, 350 yards, 1 TD
Bobby Wade: 40 catches, 550 yards, 3 TDs
Percy Harvin: 20 catches, 300 yards, 2 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 35 catches, 550 yards, 6 TDs

Bernard Berrian gets paid a lot for a guy who's never had 1,000 yards receiving in a season -- and this year he might not, just for the simple reason that Vikings QBs will have a number of good-but-not-great targets to throw to this season.

Someone from the Vikings' second tier of receivers will have to step up this year. Bobby Wade is reliable but unexciting; Sidney Rice shows occasional flashes but isn't reliable; Percy Harvin might be exciting, but it remains to be seen if the Vikings will use him properly; and wide receivers Jaymer Johnson and Darius Reynaud will be used mostly on special teams. Visanthe Shiancoe emerged last year as an above-average target and, as Mark Chmura and Bubba Franks can attest, Brett loves throwing to his tight ends in the red zone!

Still, the offensive focus of the team will still be on the run, thus limiting any spectacular passing numbers from the receiving corps. It's amazing how much you have to rein in your predictions when you've established a likely maximum passing total for the team (in this case, about 3,500 yards) and have so many players to spread out your predictions for. This unit may still surprise in 2009, but it'll probably be mostly Bernard Berrian (on the weekends he's not invisible, as he was all too often last year) and whoever has the hot hand on a week-to-week basis.

Position grade: C+

Offensive Line

It's a changing of the guard in Vikingland, as Matt Birk finally steps away from his center position, after 11 years in purple. (Technically, he'll still be wearing purple, but you know what I mean.) Second-year man John Sullivan replaces him, while rookie Phil Loadholt mercifully steps into the right tackle spot previously held by the likes of Ryan Cook and Artis Hicks. I've only seen a little of Loadholt in preseason, but I'm impressed by the footwork and mobility from such a huge man. At the very least, he has to be an upgrade over Cook.

(Though I could ask why, if it only took $12 million over three years to keep Birk, why didn't we re-sign him? It's not like we didn't have twice as much money to throw at another aging star...)

The left side of the line is solid as ever, with Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie. If Loadholt and Sullivan can get it done, the O-line could be one of the best in the league.

Position grade: B+

Defensive Line

Here's where the real fun begins. Jared Allen is a beast. Pat Williams and Kevin Williams are probably the best interior tackle combination in the league. And Ray Edwards...well, he's all right, I suppose. As I said last year, he's effectively interchangeable with Brian Robison, and the pair combined for 7.5 sacks. Assuming that suspensions don't rob us of the "Williams Wall" in 2009 -- and it looks like they won't -- this has the makings to be a dominant defensive line, playing equally well against the run and the pass.

Backups Jayme Mitchell, Fred Evans, and Letroy Guion hopefully won't see too much time on the field, but even if they do, the presence of the other members of the line could open up some nice opportunities for them. Overall, this is going to be a fun group to watch, swallowing up running backs (perhaps literally, if Pat Williams has skipped lunch) and chasing opposing QBs all day long.

Position grade: A+

Linebacker

If EJ Henderson can recover from the dislocated toe that cost him most of 2008 -- and really, unless you're Deion Sanders, a bad toe doesn't sound like a career-threatening injury -- he might still only be the second-best linebacker on the field for the Vikings in 2009. In Henderson's absence, Chad Greenway emerged as a force to be reckoned with in 2008, notching 84 tackles and 5 1/2 sacks and seemingly being in on every play, both on his side of the field and elsewhere. He'll probably never be considered an elite linebacker, but as long as he flies around the field like he does, I'll be OK with his lack of recognition.

Ben Leber fills out the other linebacker spot, and he's an underrated player who I think would get more attention if he didn't have such stellar teammates. Unfortunately, as shown last year when Henderson went down (Napoleon Harris!), the team's depth at linebacker is almost non-existant. Erin Henderson, Jasper Brinkley, and special-teams ace Heath Farwell are penciled into the backup spots, but that pencil will need an eraser if something goes wrong with the "big three." Let's hope it doesn't.

Position grade: A-

Secondary

With Darren Sharper signing with New Orleans, Tyrell Johnson steps into his vacated safety spot. Johnson looked a little overwhelmed at times last year, having to start as a rookie in place of the injured Madieu Williams. Hopefully, he's used that extra year to learn the position and can take over admirably for the departed Sharper. Williams, his safety-mate, was solid after returning from a back injury that cost him the first half of the season.

The other two corners are the same as last year, if not a little more well paid. Both Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield signed big deals in the offseason that will keep them both in Viking purple for years to come. That could be a questionable decision in the future, with Winfield having just turned 32 and Griffin not being able to keep up with elite receivers at times last year, but both should provide at least decent play for a couple more years, provided the defensive line can keep quarterbacks on their toes. And Winfield should be good for at least half a dozen or so highlight-reel tackles each year.

As with the linebackers, depth is a major issue at the position. Benny Sapp and Karl Paymah will likely compete for the nickel and dime spots, and neither one exactly inspires confidence. An interesting player is third-round draft pick Asher Allen, tabbed as "Antoine Winfield, Jr." because of his relatively small size (5'10").

Position grade: B

Special Teams

Speaking of Darren Sharper, remember when the Vikings signed him in 2005 and everyone thought, "Oh, no, a Packer!" (Well, I did anyway.) Then we signed Ryan Longwell in 2006. And this year...well, you know. Suffice to say, Longwell's earned his keep as a Viking, converting 84.3% of field goal attempts in three years, including 6-of-6 last year from over 50 yards. Do you think he prefers the dome to Lambeau Field?

Chris Kluwe had an up-and-down year last season. His 47.6 yards per punt were phenomenal, but he was often blamed for several huge returns, including four touchdowns. While I'll admit that hang time is a good thing, the difference between "booming a punt" and "outkicking the coverage" is usually dependent on how well the rest of your team covers downfield. A healthy Heath Farwell, who missed all of last season, should do wonders for the coverage unit.

After a predictably awful year of letting Maurice Hicks return kickoffs, the Vikings are turning to rookies Percy Harvin as their primary kick returner and Percy Harvin as the punt returner. Both might switch off at the position in 2009, with Darius Reynaud likely also getting some touches as a return man.

Position grade: B-

Overall
Let's face it: Even without Brett Favre, this was looking like the most stacked Vikings team in recent history. The addition of Favre will probably provide confidence, if not actual performance, to an already potent team, but health, as always, will be a key component to a successful season.

So far, at least, the Vikings have been fortunate in that regards. Going into last year, Heath Farwell and Madeiu Williams were unavailable, and EJ Henderson only lasted until the fourth game. While none of them are as important to the team as Adrian Peterson or Jared Allen, enough little injuries can pile up to the point that they have a significant effect on the team. And three of the Vikings' main issues from last year -- special teams coverage, pass defense, and poor middle-linebacker play -- can be, in part, directly attributed to those three injuries.

Then there's the quarterback position. I won't get into my views on Brett Favre -- you're either sick of them already or you agree with me 100% -- and there's no way to actually simulate how the Vikings would have been with Favre and without him. I stand by my assertion, though, that any positive effect he has on the team will be strictly mental. People, probably including opposing defenses and coaches, will respect the name of Brett Favre, even if the player is a shell of his former self. His half-game-plus of play against the Texans was nice, but that needs to carry on over a full season, or about 30 times as much as it did two Mondays ago. I'll try to resist the urge to throw something at the TV every time he makes a bonehead play (especially when the announcers write it off as "having fun" or other nonsense), but this could be the most trying season ever for me as a Vikings fan -- amazing when you consider that, by and large, the team's got a very good chance of going to the Super Bowl.

At the very least, this team won't be boring this season, that's for sure.

Projected Finish:
11-5, 1st in NFC North

2009 NFL Predictions

I'll give the same disclaimer (or excuse) for these predictions that I gave last year: Predictions are silly and only half-educated guesses that are only revisited by the predictor when they go spectacularly right. Of course, I won't be like that; I'll actually revisit mine in February, but that's a long ways off. For now, bask in my half-educatedness!

y - Division Winner
x - Wild Card

AFC East
1. New England - y
2. Buffalo - x
3. Miami
4. NY Jets

Sure, there's a school of though that says the Patriots won't come all the way back to where they were in 2007. And they won't, but a healthy Tom Brady should be good for at least 12-13 wins. Miami overachieved last year, I think, and the Jets will have a rookie QB under center, which rarely works unless you only consider last year. The Bills in the playoffs? Sure, why not? Terrell Owens is always good for his new team, at least for a year.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh - y
2. Cleveland
3. Baltimore
4. Cincinnati

After Pittsburgh, this is a tough division to call. Cincinnati and Cleveland both had a ton of injuries last year and should rebound fairly well, while people will soon realize that Joe Flacco wasn't really all that good. Still, I could see 2-4 in just about any order. (What a cop-out!)

AFC South
1. Tennessee - y
2. Indianapolis - x
3. Jacksonville
4. Houston

Just because nobody expects Tennessee to repeat, I have to pick them. What people don't realize is the amazing offensive line they had last year -- Titans QBs were only sacked on 2.6% of their dropbacks in 2009, compared to a league average of 5.9%. And I think the loss of Tony Dungy will weaken Indy just enough to keep them as a 10-11 win team. Jacksonville probably wasn't as bad as it showed last year, and I'm tired of waiting for Houston to finally do something.

AFC West
1. San Diego - y
2. Oakland
3. Denver
4. Kansas City

Like the AFC North, here's another sure-fire division winner and three also-rans. The difference is that I think the AFCN teams might be pretty good, overall, while Oakland, Denver, and Kansas City could all finish under .500.

Joe Buck Division NFC East
1. Philadelphia - y
2. Dallas - x
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

I think Philly has the potential to be the best team in the NFC (along with another you can probably guess), largely on the strength of their defense. And I think that the loss of T.O. won't hurt the Cowboys as much as people think, while the loss of Plaxico Burress has already shown that it hurts the Giants. And the Redskins? Well, who knows what Daniel Snyder's doing up in DC.

NFC North
1. Minnesota - y
2. Green Bay
3. Chicago
4. Detroit

Even Brett Favre can't screw this team up too badly -- I think. I admit that I'm very close to picking Green Bay as my wild card, but I think the defense will let them down just a little too often this year; still, 9-10 wins is likely. The QB with the second-most interceptions in the league in 2008, behind Favre, was Jay Cutler. This probably means that the Packers' defense is a nice sleeper pick in fantasy football. But not the Lions' defense. Stay away from the Lions' defense. (OK, really, I think any team, the Lions included, are capable of about 4 wins.)

NFC South
1. Atlanta - y
2. New Orleans - x
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

New Orleans has no defense and no running game, but man, can Drew Brees chuck it! Still, those shortcomings will be enough to keep them out of the top spot in the division, which I think goes to Atlanta, which only helped itself by bringing aboard Tony Gonzalez to help out Matt Ryan. Jake Delhomme is Brett Favre, Jr., capable of easily losing a game with an interception-fest, like he did in the playoffs against Arizona last year. I think this year will be more "bad Jake" than "good Jake." Tampa Bay is the definition of "rebuilding." Remember what I said about the Lions winning maybe 4 games this year? The Bucs would likely kill for that.

NFC West
1. Seattle - y
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. St. Louis

I agonized over this one for a while, but in the end I picked Seattle to rebound from its injury-plagued 2008, in part because I needed to pick a fourth new division winner and in part because -- let's face it people -- nobody really knows how Arizona suddenly played well last January after being kicked around like a rag doll in December. San Fran's a trendy pick this year, but I don't know if I buy them just yet. And St. Louis might fight with Tampa Bay for the #1 draft pick. Marc Bulger looks absolutely finished.

Well, that's it! Check back with me in six months to see how stupid I was!

Winter vs. Berry: The Showdown!

Matthew Berry's at it again.

Some of you might remember my criticism of ESPN's "The Talented Mr. Roto" and his outrageous predictions for the 2008, and it appears I wasn't the only one. In this year's article Berry acknowledges the criticism with several excerpts from his comments and mail bag (though apparently not from my blog; I'm terribly offended) and re-iterates his point that his "bold predictions" were supposed to be out-on-a-limb, rather unlikely to be met, and meant to improve your draft strategy. He says:

The point of this is not that I nail every prediction. In fact, I'm going to tell you that the only prediction that I guarantee here is that I'm not going to get all of these correct. Especially since we still have three weeks of preseason to go.

But, if you use this correctly, the idea is simply that it helps you draft. For example, in last year's article, I said eight other tight ends will have a better fantasy season than Antonio Gates. Technically, that was wrong, as Gates finished fourth in fantasy scoring among tight ends.

But, if you took that to mean, in essence, that I felt Gates was overvalued (he was generally the first tight end off the board last year) and ended up passing on him and waiting two rounds later for someone like Dallas Clark (I predicted he would be the No. 1 tight end, also wrong, but he did finish two points out of second and ahead of Gates), then this article worked for you last year. And you still get to give me crap for getting it wrong. See? Everyone's a winner.

So, why not say "Gates is overvalued," rather than come up with some "bold" prediction? And what excuse do you have for saying "Ben Obomanu will reach 800 yards and six touchdowns"? (prediction #46; Obomanu finished with 180 yards and 1 TD." I don't think anyone was unjustly undervaluing Obomanu.

The reason is shock value and "wow" factor. Saying Gates won't be the #1 tight end is like saying, to some people, oh, that Brett Favre won't have a good year. Both will probably be true, but people who don't pay too much attention to football won't know that and will argue vehemently for the "conventional wisdom." Controversy = hits on your web site. If that was the goal, mission accomplished.

With all that being said, it's clear that Berry is in a bit of damage-control mode this year, as his predictions are much, much tamer and I can't argue with too many of them. In fact, I find myself outright agreeing with several. But not all of them. And this year, rather than ragging on the man after the season is over, I'm going to put myself out on a limb and grade his predictions, and at the end of the year, we'll see who is more "right."

Scoring will be simple. I'll give a "YES" or "NO" for each of the 32 predictions (the real, football-based ones), based on whether or not I think it'll happen. I'll assume that Berry labels each of them as "YES." At the end of the year, we'll total up the number we got correct, and highest score wins.

Unfortunately, he doesn't number this year's predictions, which means I'll have to reprint them, word for word, and number them myself for easy reference at the end of the season. Feel free to chime in with your own views.

On to the predictions:

1. Chris "Beanie" Wells stays healthy enough to get at least 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns. YES.
   
2. Roddy White will lead the NFL in receiving yards. YES. Bold, but I like it. Jake Delhomme is due for a meltdown, and that'll hurt Steve Smith.
   
3. Joe Flacco finishes the year as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. NO. Flacco is highly overrated because his defense is good.
   
4. Terrell Owens finishes the year outside the top 25 fantasy wide receivers. You heard me. NO. I think he'll be down a bit, but even Trent Edwards can't screw him up too badly.
   
5. Jonathan Stewart finishes with more fantasy points than DeAngelo Williams. NO. Williams is overrated, thanks to his huge TD numbers, but he'll still get more carries and points than Stewart.
   
6. Devin Hester and Greg Olsen combine for 1,800 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. NO. Jay Cutler can't fix the mess that is the Bears' receiving corps.
   
7. Chris Henry has a better fantasy season than Laveranues Coles. NO. Of course, the Jets lost Brett Favre so they don't know how to pass any more.
   
8. Jamal Lewis has 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns, or the equivalent fantasy points. NO. Nice to throw in the "or the equivalent" phrase to CYA, but I still think Lewis is done.
   
9. Without T.O. in town, Tony Romo has the best fantasy season of his career. NO. I think Romo will be fine, but the man had 4,211 yards and 36 TDs two years ago. That's tough to top.
   
10. Peyton Hillis will end the year with the most fantasy points of any Broncos running back. You heard me. YES. Hey someone's gotta run the ball in Denver.
    
11. Brandon Pettigrew finishes the year as a top-15 fantasy tight end. YES. Bad/young QBs love a good tight end.
    
12. Ryan Grant goes for better than 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns. NO.
    
13. Eighty-five receptions and 1,000 yards for Owen Daniels. NO. Daniels is really good and really underrated, but the Texans still have Andre Johnson.
    
14. Anthony Gonzalez, whose career high in receiving yards is 664, doubles that this season. NO. A Colts WR might have 1,300 receiving yards, but it'll be Reggie Wayne.
    
15. David Garrard will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year. Just like last season. YES.
    
16. Matt Cassel will not be. In fact, he finishes outside the top 15. YES.
    
17. Anthony Fasano, meet the end zone. You two will find each other 10 times this season. YES. Sure, why not?
    
18. Bernard Berrian gets more than 1,200 yards and nine scores. NO. Having Brett Favre means Berrian won't have to settle for those weak-armed QBs like the ones he had last year that limited him to a paltry 20.1 yards per reception, second-best in the league.
    
19. Eight hundred yards and seven touchdowns for Joey Galloway. YES. If he's healthy Galloway can catch 800 yards' worth of passes from anyone.
    
20. Pierre Thomas is a top-10 fantasy running back this year. And Saints fans start wearing berets to games. You heard me. YES. But I'll disregard the beret thing.
    
21. Brandon Jacobs scores 20 touchdowns. NO. How will the Giants get that close to the end zone with Eli Manning battling Brett Favre for the league interception lead?
    
22. Dustin Keller gets 800 yards, eight touchdowns and is one of the top eight fantasy tight ends this season. YES.
    
23. More than 1,500 total yards and eight scores (or the fantasy points equivalent) for Darren McFadden. NO. I dunno, but I think we're going to look back in 10 years and find that Felix Jones was the better Alabama RB who entered the league in 2008. Plus, being with the Raiders automatically subtracts 25% (or more) from your fantasy potential
    
24. Brian Westbrook plays all 16 games. NO. Hasn't happened yet, see no reason to start now.
    
25. Trendy preseason favorite Rashard Mendenhall finishes with fewer fantasy points than Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Heath Miller. YES.
    
26. Philip Rivers ends up with 225 fantasy points or fewer, which last year would have put him ninth among quarterbacks. (To put that numerically, I think he throws for fewer than 3,400 yards and 25 touchdowns). YES.
    
27. Shaun Hill wins the starting quarterback job, throws for 3,000-plus yards and has at least 26 total touchdowns. NO. He'll be the starter, but he won't get those kind of TD numbers.
    
28. T.J. Duckett scores double-digit touchdowns. Julius Jones has more than 1,200 total yards. Both have solid fantasy value this year. You heard me. NO. I could believe Jones, but absolutely not Duckett.
    
29. Donnie Avery has more than 1,000 yards receiving. And yes, I know he's injured and most likely will miss the start of the season. That's how much I like him and the Rams' revamped offensive line. NO. But I don't like Marc Bulger.
    
30. Antonio Bryant finishes outside the top 30 of fantasy wide receivers. YES.
    
31. Nate Washington, on the other hand, finishes inside the top 30. YES.
    
32. More than 1,000 yards and six touchdowns for Chris Cooley. NO. Put simply, expecting 1,000 yards from any TE is asking for trouble.
    

And one of his non-football predictions:

At some point in the next 12 months, a blog will print a story about me and every "fact" will actually be, well, factual.

Already happened, man.

2008 NFL Predictions

Back when I didn't take this blog seriously, I tossed out some predictions for the 2006 NFL season. My next post -- eight months later -- reviewed those predictions, which, like most NFL predictions, were extremely hit and miss. But hey, when everyone else is tossing out half-educated guesses, why shouldn't I join in and contribute to the noise (and bandwidth usage)? So, here are my 2008 NFL predictions, which I'll revisit in five months after the Super Bowl so you can all laugh at how crazy I was.

Remember: Each year, about four of the eight division winners fail to repeat. Any season prediction that says seven out of eight division winners will repeat is a) cowardly and b) probably wrong. Thus, I am contractually bound to name at least four new division winners on the season. Three were fairly easy for me. The fourth was a tough one and will probably be wrong, but nothing ventured...

y-Division Winner
x-Wild Card

AFC East
1. New England-y
2. Buffalo
3. NY Jets
4. Miami

Tough to go against the Patriots. They could lose four games off their 2007 win total and still finish win the best record in the AFC. The Bills and Jets will make some noise, but they're not ready for prime time just yet. The less said about the Dolphins, the better, though there is some hope for the future with the young players they're stockpiling.

AFC North
1. Cleveland-y
2. Pittsburgh
3. Cincinnati
4. Baltimore

I'm not enamored with Cleveland, especially their offense, but I'll go with them anyway because I think they have better line play (offensive and defensive) than Pittsburgh, a team in a bit of a transitional period as they try to rebuild their offensive line. Cincinnati will continue to be an enigma, looking great one week and lousy the next and probably finishing 7-9 or 8-8. Baltimore lost its HOF offensive tackle and will be starting either a rookie (Joe Flacco) or second-year fifth-round pick (Troy Smith) at QB. Not good.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis-y
2. Houston-x
3. Jacksonville
4. Tennessee

As with New England, I can't go against Indianapolis, though I think it's possible they only win 10-11 games this year. And here's my first big surprise. Houston goes to the playoffs, largely on the strength of their young defense, led by Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Amobi Okoye. Jacksonville is probably the most overrated team in football -- David Garrard is good, but nobody actually consistently throws fewer than 1% of their passes for interceptions. That's going to have to balance out. And speaking of QBs and interceptions, Vince Young is like Michael Vick without the passing skills, and that's not very good.

AFC West
1. Denver-y
2. San Diego-x
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

Here's my "division winner I'm changing because I have to, not because I want to" pick. With all the injuries they've suffered, not the least of which is Shawne Merriman, I think the Chargers slip a little this year. Oakland and KC aren't ready to compete (though with their stellar draft, I think the Chiefs are closer than a lot of people thing), so I'll go with Denver, which is probably as crazy a choice as the Houston pick.

NFC East
1. Dallas-y
2. Philadelphia-x
3. NY Giants
4. Washington

I don't think Dallas is a 13-3 team, but the rest of the division doesn't do anything for me. I'll give Philly and Donovan McNabb one more chance at greatness in the playoffs, though. I think everyone agrees that the Giants were a bit of a fluke last year, and with their losses on the defensive line, they'll be lucky to break .500. Todd Collins somehow captured lightning in a bottle and got the Redskins to the playoffs. They'll be lucky to avoid double-digit losses this year.

NFC North
1. Minnesota-y
2. Green Bay-x
3. Detroit
4. Chicago

Minnesota was the busiest team in the offseason and, with the losses suffered by the rest of the division, could have the easiest road in their division of all the teams. I think Aaron Rodgers will be decent, and the Packers' running game and defense will keep them solidly in the mix all year and probably lead to 9 or 10 wins and a playoff spot. Detroit's got some nice weapons on offense (Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams), but they won't get to 10 wins (sorry, Jon Kitna). Chicago could be a trainwreck; they have Devin Hester and Brian Urlacher and...uh...anyone?

NFC South
1. New Orleans-y
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta

If Reggie Bush stays healthy, New Orleans could have the most potent offense in the league this side of New England. He's not an every-down back, but his receiving skills make him a dangerous weapon. I'll probably get ripped for this (again), but I just can't believe in Tampa Bay. How old is Jeff Garcia? 38? Truthfully, I think Carolina could be worse than Atlanta. Jake Delhomme started off nice last year before being lost for the season, but he's not a 111.8-rating kind of guy. If Julius Peppers doesn't rebound from his lousy 2007, it could be another long year for Panther fans. At least Atlanta knows they're rebuilding, though they'll be lucky to win five games.

NFC West
1. Seattle-y
2. Arizona
3. St. Louis
4. San Francisco

You don't know how badly I want to pick against Seattle. Can Julius Jones really be the answer at RB? And Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson are your top WRs? But I've given up trying to believe in Arizona until they definitively show me they can get it done. They might go 8-8, they might go 4-12, they might go 12-4. I think all are equally likely, but I'm just not going to jump on their train. A full year of Steven Jackson will do much to cure the Rams' ills. JT O'Sullivan will probably put up nice numbers in San Francisco, now that he's got Mike Martz running the offense, but ask Jon Kitna how that worked in Detroit.

And now we come to the final part: my predictions for conference champions and the Super Bowl winner. More than a few pundits are picking you-know-who to win the NFC and even the Super Bowl; ESPN's Mike Greenberg picked a Minnesota/Jacksonville Super Bowl, with Minnesota proving triumphant (though, you know, that would be a rather boring game, with probably about 75% running plays and no passes deeper than 15 yards).

Me? I just have trouble doing it. I know I put $10 on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. And maybe this news, on the eve of the new season's start, is some kind of omen. But...but...if I make that prediction, and they fall short, I'll feel disappointed (and feel like a homer). The pressure, the pressure....

AFC Champion: New England
NFC Champion: Minnesota

Super Bowl Winner: New England

There. I feel better now. Or maybe worse. I'll let you know in February.

2008 Minnesota Vikings preview

With one of the busiest offseasons in recent memory, the Vikings have a lot of people talking about their potential for 2008. With several football pundits predicting the Vikings to make the playoffs, win the division, and, in at least one case, to win it all, expectations are high. Soon, it will be time to leave the paper team of the offseason behind and see if the real team can live up to the overwhelming hype. The Vikings have as good a shot as just about anyone in the NFC of making it to the big game in February, if they can play to their strengths and overcome their few weaknesses.

Like last year, I'll be posting a position-by-position breakdown of the team, along with my predicted stats for each significant player. And, whenever the Vikings' season ends (hopefully very, very late), I'll do a recap to see how far off I was (last year: not bad). Yes, I know that predicting exact yardage totals and the like are very silly, but I think I'm allowed one silly predictive post like this a year.

Quarterback:
Tarvaris Jackson: 2,700 passing yards, 16 TDs, 15 Int., 400 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs

The one weakness most people are focusing on for the 2008 Vikings is at quarterback, where third-year man Tarvaris Jackson gets one more shot to prove that he can lead his team. Skeptics abound, and with good reason; at times in 2007, Jackson looked to be playing way out of his league and, despite a month of good showings in November, the team finished the season with two losses and wound up out of the playoff picture.

Among his backers are those who point out the team went 8-4 with him as the starting quarterback, even though his efforts were largely irrelevant in the face of Adrian Peterson rushing for 296 yards or the defense forcing a handful of turnovers. And, despite the dearest wishes of Vikings fans, there simply is no reason why a second-year quarterback must automatically improve in his third year. I'd say he has about an equal chance of falling apart as he does of putting up a great season.

To its credit, the team did what it could to help out its young quarterback, signing wide receiver Bernard Berrian away from the Chicago Bears in the offseason. The offensive line is solid, even if Bryant McKinnie won't play until October, and ditching Troy Williamson should be good for at least a few more completions a season. Truthfully, with all the help he's got, Jackson probably should improve in 2008, but it's not a guarantee. And he'll still have to stay healthy, which is some concern; he was taken out of two games in 2007 with injuries and missed four starts and didn't appear in the final two preseason games after suffering a knee injury against Baltimore.

As such, my prediction here is rather middle-of-the-road, if not quietly optimistic. Assuming 240/400 completions/attempts (60%) season, it computes out to a 77.9 passer rating -- adequate, but not overly impressive. While I will agree that he looked good at times last year, there were also far too many instances of his throwing a ball into coverage and, during the second Chicago game, just lobbing it up into the air while being sacked, an easy interception for the defense. Every quarterback (not just the Jets' quarterback, as the media would like you to believe) has a desire to complete every pass and make every play; but all of them have to realize when it's just not possible. If Jackson can learn that and provide just enough of a threat through the passing game so that teams can't key 100% on the run, the Vikings playoff run could be deep, indeed.

With Brooks Bollinger gone, the backup plan is the aging Gus Frerotte and rookie John David Booty. Considering Jackson's injury history, it's likely that at least Frerotte will see some time at the position this year, but Vikings fans hope it will be minimal. The team went with Booty over Brooks Bollinger as the #3 QB and, if Jackson stumbles, he could be the long-term solution at the position...just hopefully not in 2008.

Position Grade: C+

Running back:
Adrian Peterson: 1,400 rushing yards, 350 receiving yards, 14 TDs
Chester Taylor: 500 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, 4 TDs

The numbers above might seem a bit low for most Adrian Peterson predictions, but I'm trying to keep in mind both his potential for injury and his poor showing in the latter part of last season. Also, keep in mind that Peterson rushed for over 500 yards in two of his games last year...while it would be nice, predicting two 200+ yard games for a back in a season is something I just can't do. And I'd rather be wrong in the low direction than wrong in the high direction.

Nonetheless, the team will continue to rely on its running game in 2008, and the two-headed Peterson/Taylor monster should be in full force, running wild in opposing defensive backfields. Taylor, however, will turn 29 in September, and while he's only had one season as a full-time starter (2006), he's getting to be of the age where backs can decline precipitously.

But if he falters, at least we've got Maurice Hicks to back him up, right? I'll get into this more when we get down to the "Special Teams" part of things, but releasing Mewelde Moore and signing Hicks was a questionable move at best. Hopefully, Hicks won't see the field except in a few blowout games.

Position grade: A

Wide Receiver/Tight End:
Bernard Berrian: 65 catches, 1,050 yards, 7 TDs
Sidney Rice: 45 catches, 650 yards, 3 TDs
Bobby Wade: 25 catches, 325 yards, 2 TDs
Visanthe Shiancoe: 20 catches, 250 yards, 1 TD

After employing the likes of Travis Taylor, Bobby Wade, and Nate Burleson as #1 receivers the past few years (or "A.R." meaning "After Randy"), the Vikings finally went out and got themselves a #1 receiver in Bernard Berrian -- or so they hope. In a somewhat controversial move, the team signed Berrian away from division rival Chicago for 6 years and a potential $42 million. All this for a guy who doesn't even have a 1,000 yard season as a pro and might not this year, either.

You could certainly blame Berrian's flashes-of-brilliance-but-not-consistently-good-numbers career on his quarterbacking partners during his time in Chicago. Moving to Minnesota, however, won't greatly improve that situation and, with the running game as it is, the team won't likely rely on Berrian as the lynchpin to its offense. Some have said that he has poor hands, but that's likely untrue. At the very least, he's a threat, and him running downfield should help open up lanes for the running game. And if he can occasionally haul in a deep ball from Jackson, all the better.

Sidney Rice looks to be an up-and-coming...well, maybe not star, but at least solid #2 wide receiver. His opportunities will be limited in the Vikings' offense, though. Now the #3 receiver, Bobby Wade could do some good things working out of the slot. Robert Ferguson is old and nursing a calf injury, while second-year man Aundrae Allison is best suited for kick-return duties. Overall, it's not a great bunch, but they don't have to be.

Position grade: B-

Offensive line:

The line performed way above expectations last year, helping the team to a league-high 5.3 yards per rush attempt and allowing Tarvaris Jackson to be sacked a fairly average 6.1% of the time. The loss of Bryant McKinnie for the first four games will be noticed, but hopefully not too much. The real question is, can the line continue to open up holes for the running game like it did in 2007 and keep Tarvaris Jackson upright enough to allow him to mature as a passer?

I'll say tentatively, "yes." While I think the unit will come down some -- another reason for my fairly conservative Adrian Peterson rushing total -- I think Matt Birk, at 32, still has enough in the tank for one more good season, Steve Hutchinson will continue his solid play, and the right side of Anthony Herrera and Ryan Cook deserve at least some of the credit for last year's good line play -- after all, the team couldn't run to the left every down. Artis Hicks should do a decent job of holding down the fort until McKinnie's return.

Position Grade: A-

Defensive Line:

I've been drooling over writing this entry since April, when the team acquired Jared Allen from the Chiefs while I was sitting in a Vegas casino. That had to be some sort of omen, right? While I'm even more loathe to give predictions about defensive statistics than I am about offensive statistics, I'm going to guess that Allen will have somewhere around a dozen sacks for the year, which is probably about in line for what a player of his age and history should have.

However, his presence should lead to more opportunities for the rest of the defensive line to wreak havoc in opposing backfields. It wouldn't suprise me in the least to see Kevin Williams get back to double-digit sacks for the first time since 2004, and opposite end Ray Edwards could also approach double digits (though he won't be anywhere near Michael Strahan's record). Only Pat Williams shouldn't be a factor in what could be the league's best pass rush, but he doesn't have to be. At 35 (soon to be 36) years of age and 317 (hee) pounds, his concern should be on staying fresh and healthy throughout the season, because for all the talent they have on the first string, the Vikings lack quality depth along the line.

Brian Robison is virtually interchangable with Edwards at the end spot, but the team essentially lost three defensive linemen in the offseason: Erasmus James (Washington), Spencer Johnson (Buffalo), and Kenichi Udeze (leukemia), leaving Otis Grigsby, Ellis Wyms, and Fred Evans as the team's primary backups along the line. That's not a greatly comforting thought, but if this unit can stay healthy, it could evoke memories of the Purple People Eaters of old.

Position Grade: A

Linebackers:

A steadily improving unit, the Vikings' linebacking corps looks to be at its best in years. EJ Henderson mans the middle and logged 119 tackles a year ago. Ben Leber and former first-rounder Chad Greenway play the edges, allowing the unit to return all three of its starters from a year ago. Greenway in particular, played very well last year, ranging all around the field and picking off two balls, including one returned for a touchdown. The defensive line is elite, but this unit isn't too far behind.

As with the line, though, the linebackers lack depth. Backup and special teamer Heath Farwell was lost in the preseason and the team cut last year's sixth-round pick, Rufus Alexander. Of the team's three backups, only Vinny Ciurciu has had any significant playing time, and most of that coming on special teams. David Herron and Erin Henderson, EJ's brother, will need to step up if their number is called.

Position Grade: A-

Defensive Backs:

Here's the only defensive unit that would not rate as "very good" in anyone's book, though the Vikings' seeming weakness against the pass in recent years is largely attributable to teams being unwilling to run on them. An improved pass rush should help, as should the addition of safety Madieu Williams, lured away from the Bengals in free agency. Williams will miss the first part of the season with a neck injury, however. As a result, the team's top draft pick from 2008, second-rounder Tyrell Johnson, will step into his place. If nothing else, it'll be a good chance for the team to see what Johnson's got and get some idea as to whether he can replace Darren Sharper when his contract expires at the end of the season.

Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin man the corner positions; Winfield needs to stay healthy and Griffin needs to step up his play so as not to be pressured for the starting job by Marcus McCauley, who'll be the team's primary nickel back. Unlike the other defensive positions, this unit has decent depth, though the loss of Michael Boulware for the season takes away a potential contributor. Overall, it will probably be the same situation as in previous years, in that teams reluctant to run on the Vikings will go to the pass more and more, and, even with the improved pass rush from Jared Allen and the rest of the line, there are times when the Vikings defensive backfield will get torched -- but hey, at least it won't be by Brett Favre any more!

Position Grade: B

Special Teams:

Ryan Longwell returns for his third year in purple, and Vikings fans have little to complain about regarding his performance. Of his four misses in 2007, three came from beyond 50 yards, and he hasn't missed a kick from 40 yards or closer since joining the team. A little more distance on kickoffs would be nice, but I think most fans are happy with the total package.

And then there's the man, the myth, the legend, the Guitar Hero, Chris Kluwe. Appearing to be fully recovered from the sprained ankle he suffered near the end of the 2005 season, Kluwe averaged a career-best 44.7 yards per punt in 2007, while downing 42% of his punts inside the opponents' 20, third-best in the league. His contributions will be even more evident in 2008 -- after all, who wants to try and drive 90 yards against this defense?

That brings us to the return game. Despite a mediocre 22.9 yards per kick return and no touchdowns for his career, the Vikings somehow thought Maurice Hicks would be a good choice as the team's kickoff-return specialist, despite having Aundrae Allison, who averaged 28.7 on returns including a touchdown, in his rookie season. Allison's currently penciled into the punt-return slot, despite never having returned one in his pro career. Perhaps the Vikings should swap those two positions, letting Allison return kicks and letting Hicks, with his running back moves, take a shot at returning punts? Better yet, let's beg the Steelers to give us back Mewelde Moore.

Position Grade: B

Overall:

Last year, I said the Vikings were "a team split right down the middle -- plus defense, minus offense." Astoundingly, the team looks to have improved both sides of the ball in the offseason, and my assessment last year didn't take Adrian Peterson's rise to stardom into account. The niggling problem of aging players is always a concern -- nobody expects a good player to actually decline, though they always do -- but the team is generally young enough, except in a few spots, that age shouldn't be a major concern.

This year, I'd say that the team possesses an average, maybe slightly above average offense. And the defense. Remember 1993? When Jim McMahon and Roger Craig started the season as the team's quarterback and running back? When John Randle and Chris Doleman and Jack Del Rio were all playing for the defense? Back then, I remember being more interested in watching the defense play than the offense because having the defense on the field, I thought, gave us a better chance to score. That team rated first in the league in yards allowed that season and snuck into the playoffs despite a 17th-ranked offense.

I think this year's Vikings have a much better offense than the 1993 version, but the defense might be so much better as to make the defense:offense ratio similar to the 1993 team. I know, I know, it's still all "on paper," but this defense has the potential to be the league's best unit in 2008, and that can make for a lot of fun viewing. Sure, I'll still like to watch Adrian Peterson (and I'll still cringe every time T-Jack drops back), but the real fun will be in watching Jared Allen harass opposing QBs and EJ Henderson take down running backs. The offense should be good enough to win a few games, but this is the rare team that will look to its defense to dominate and put games out of reach. I'm not quite ready to jump on Dr. Z's bandwagon and I'm notoriously pessimistic, but this team should go far -- maybe even as far as a team can go.

My Prediction: 11-5, 1st in the NFC North

Position Grade: