Time to clock Big Ben

It's looking more and more like Antoine Winfield won't be in the starting defensive backfield for the Vikings when they travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday, and that could be trouble, if the second half against the Ravens was any indication. We've always had our reservations about Brad Childress' and Darrell Bevell's ability to think outside the box and craft a quality offense for the Vikings; this week, it might be up to Leslie Frazier to figure out a way to get enough pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to make up for Winfield's absence.

Roethlisberger represents a serious matchup problem for the Vikings. Yes, he holds on to the ball too long and takes a lot of sacks (3rd highest sack percentage among active quarterbacks, and highest among anyone who could be called a starter), but because of that -- and because defensive players tend to bounce off his 240-pound frame -- he keeps plays alive and completes a lot of downfield passes. He currently leads the league with 9.1 yards per attempt, which, if it holds out, would make him the third quarterback this decade (and only 11th since the merger) to average better than 9 yards per pass. He's already #3 among active quarterbacks, and his 12.6 yards per completion is the 2nd-best career mark in the NFL among active quarterbacks.

In other words, this game has all the appearance of mimicking the type of game we had against the Green Bay Packers, where Aaron Rodgers was sacked eight times but had 384 yards passing. As long as the final score looks roughly the same, I'll be happy.

On the bright side, no Steelers quarterback has ever thrown for more than 300 yards against the Vikings. In fact, only one has ever managed as many as 250, and it was a while ago. That probably owes more to the fact that the teams don't play each other very often, and both have been known for their defenses (and, in the Steelers' case, their running games) than for high-flying aerial attacks. Vikings QBs haven't fared much better over the years.

Unlike Baltimore, the Steelers still have a defense, though they'll be missing DE Aaron Smith, a major key to their 3-4 who's out for the season. Without him, Adrian Peterson has a very solid chance of topping 100 yards, despite the Steelers' allowing only 74.5 yards per game on the ground. That's skewed somewhat by the 16 yards San Diego put on them in week 4. Without Smith, even Cleveland managed 91 yards on the ground, though 45 of that came from Josh Cribbs in the wildcat. I'd expect a somewhat lower-scoring game this week -- maybe just in the 20s for each team. And hopefully more for the purple.

Brad Childress's World

We're just living in it. 6% and falling.

"Based on the way we were playing defense, I thought we’d have a chance to get it back."
-- After punting with two minutes left, down 30-17 with zero timeouts in the Tennessee game. Tennessee knelt three times, as expected, to run out the clock.

"Turnovers are the No. 1 statistic in this business."
-- Following the Vikings' four turnovers in the Tennessee game. Funny, I thought "points" were the #1 statistic.

"He's definitely our quarterback next week."
-- About Tarvaris Jackson, one day before naming Gus Frerotte the starting quarterback against Carolina.

"I'm committed to him coming into training camp. His record is 8-4 in 12 starts."
-- Referring to Tarvaris Jackson's "along for the ride" record in 2007. But we've already been there plenty of times.

"He’s very detailed and he’s straightforward. He’s not going to feed you any lines. He knows the offense inside and out. He was calling plays in preseason and at the end of the year, and I just know how dedicated he is to his work."
-- About quarterback Mike McMahon (55.1 career passer rating), whom the Vikings signed before the 2006 season and cut by the end of training camp

And, as a special bonus, from the mouth of Darrell Bevell:

"Am I still confident in Brooks [Bollinger]? Absolutely. He's a very conscientious guy. He is a professional. He has taken care of the football. He knows what we are asking him to do, and he usually does those things."
-- Late in the 2007 preseason

Please, parents -- if you see either of these men near one of your quarterbacks, report it to the local authorities as quickly as possible.

Bevell's Edge

Just when I thought I was done talking about Brett Favre, along comes this. I caught a little commentary about the affair last night on ESPN, where John Clayton said that the whole affair would probably be resolved in a week or two and that, barring some amazing discovery in the phone records, there probably wouldn't be any real repercussions, except that, win or lose, the Vikings would be even less likely to make a deal with Favre than initially supposed.

The whole case revolves around whether Vikings Offensive Coordinator -- and former Packers assistant -- Darrell Bevell broke league rules by contacting Favre illegally to discuss the possibility of him coming to the Vikings. The team's hardly been reluctant to embrace former Packers the last few years -- Ryan Longwell and Darren Sharper, most notably, in addition to Bevell -- but if Bevell made overtures to Favre on his own, without the head coach, owner, or anyone else in management being aware, then he could find himself in some warm-to-hot water. And I don't think I'd mind that much.

I've always found Bevell a curious case. For those who are unaware, he was the starting quarterback for the Wisconsin Badgers in 1993 and 1994 before moving on to a few college coaching jobs, then Offensive Assistant and then Quarterbacks Coach with the Packers from 2003 to 2005. Then, in 2006, Brad Childress lured him away from the green-and-gold and installed him as the Vikings' Offensive Coordinator, a post he still holds. Certainly, there are other factors involved with a team's offensive success, but it's not erroneous to state that Bevell has played a direct hand in the quarterback play of two NFL franchises for the last five seasons. All this from a man, who, for nearly four of those five years, was younger than the QB (Favre and Brad Johnson) he was instructing.

Now, let's take a look at that quarterback play, shall we?

2003
Favre: 32 TD, 21 Int., 4.5% Int.

2004
Favre: 30 TD, 17 Int., 3.1% Int.
Other: 4 TD, 2 Int.

2005
Favre: 20 TD, 29 Int., 4.8% Int.
Other: 0 TD, 1 Int.

(Consider at this point that you're the QB coach for a man widely considered one of the greatest QBs of all time, and he just had the worst season of his career under your watch. Curious that you'd find not only a job, but a promotion, no?)

2006
Brad Johnson: 9 TD, 15 Int.
Tarvaris Jackson: 2 TD, 4 Int.
Other: 0 TD, 1 Int.

2007
Tarvaris Jackson: 9 TD, 12 Int.
Other: 3 TD, 2 Int.

I only include interception percentages for Favre's seasons to illustrate that, while his TD numbers were still pretty good, he had two of his worst three seasons, Int%-wise, under Bevell (with the third coming in 1993, his second full year as a starter). Yes, Favre's never been daunted by his high pick numbers, but he was probably worse at keeping the ball out of opponents' hands under Bevell than under any of his other QB coaches.

In total, quarterbacks under Bevell's watch have produced 109 TDs against 104 interceptions. Yes, he had an aging Brad Johnson, a young Tarvaris Jackson, and a (supposedly at the time) washed-up Brett Favre, and there are other ways to gauge a team's offensive success...but still, one would have to think Bevell's not on the sturdiest of ground, despite the team's recent success, largely attributed to Adrian Peterson's emergence.

(On a semi-related note, I always found it mildly amusing that the Vikings had a mediocre-to-bad offense from 1992 to 1997. Then they drafted Randy Moss and got a career year out of Randall Cunningham and suddenly their OC during those years, Brian Billick, becomes an "offensive genius." I don't think "throw deep to Randy" qualifies as a stroke of genius. At least nobody's ready to credit Bevell with "genius" status because of Peterson's strong play.)

If the Vikings sputter offensively in 2008, it will probably mean the end for Brad Childress; if so, Darrell Bevell will certainly follow him out the door, though even mid-season coordinator switches are not entirely unheard of. If it comes to that, Vikings fans shouldn't panic. The next guy could certainly do worse, but it's not a reach to think that he'll do better than Bevell has.