2010 Season Predictions

So that "going to post more" semi-promise. Yeah, not so much.

But, on the eve of the 2010 season, the first game of which features the Vikings, I thought I should at least briefly share my opinions on the Vikings chances this season and the NFL as a whole. Unfortunately, I don't share the optimism that most of my brethren seem to.

I hate to sound like a naysayer, but I feel the Vikings have declined this offseason, while the Packers look to be really, really good. Our secondary is limping to the starting line, the offensive line (and Pat Williams) is still too fat, Adrian Peterson still fumbles, Sidney Rice is hurt, Brad Childress is still the head coach...

Oh, and yeah, there's that guy who's closer to retirement age than he is to college age. He's still a douche, and his ankle is already hurting.

As improbable as it was that Brett Favre would have the season he did at age 40, it's even more improbable that he'll do it at the age of 41, which he hits a month from tomorrow. Toss in the fact that he doesn't think Brad Childress knows how to run an offense (a point that I agree with him on) and the notion that, even if he's good, his body might not hold up all season, and only the homer-est of homers would have trouble acknowledging that the 2010 Vikings are walking a fine line between excellence and simply very-good-ness.

All is not lost, however, even if #4 doesn't perform up to snuff. The 2008 Vikings went 10-6 with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at the helm, and Peterson and the defense are enough to at least get us that far. Unfortunately, I don't know that they'll get much farther than that, unless everything comes together like it did last season.

My prediction: 10-6

Overall NFL Predictions (and very brief summaries):

AFC East
1. NY Jets - y
2. New England - x
3. Miami
4. Buffalo

The Jets probably aren't as good as everyone thinks they are, but they're good enough to get this far.

AFC North
1. Baltimore - y
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Cleveland

Sorry Pittsburgh, but you could be really bad this year.

AFC South
1. Houston - y
2. Indianapolis - x
3. Tennessee
4. Jacksonville

Houston has to get it done one of these years, right?

AFC West
1. San Diego - y
2. Denver
3. Oakland
4. Kansas City

I don't see any of these teams doing anything notable.

NFC East
1. Dallas - y
2. Washington
3. Philadelphia
4. NY Giants

Dallas is the only really good team here, IMHO

NFC North
1. Green Bay - y
2. Minnesota - x
3. Detroit
4. Chicago

Jay Cutler is really not good.

NFC South
1. Atlanta - y
2. New Orleans - x
3. Carolina
4. Tampa Bay

Don't sleep on the Panthers.

NFC West

1. San Francisco - y
2. Arizona
3. St. Louis
4. Seattle

See AFC West.

AFC Championship: Baltimore over New England
NFC Championship: Green Bay over Dallas
Super Bowl: Baltimore over Green Bay

See you in five months!

Letting it sink in

After a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like Brett Favre. Or maybe not.

This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. Anything. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted right now. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, Brad Childress won't set a deadline for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)

Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. Ryan Longwell is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even Troy Aikman didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when Troy Aikman thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up Reggie Bush on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.

No, the blame has to go around to guys like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.

It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the 1999 loss to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.

But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.

Wait 'til next year.

Clash of egos

Last post of 2009 for me and probably the last post for a while in 2010. Don't worry, I'm not quitting blogging (no matter how bad the Vikings play). Instead, after 4 1/2 years in NASCAR-land (Charlotte), I'm moving to Cowboy-land. Yes, I'm about to become even more "displaced" of a Vikings fan that I was when I started this blog, with a move to Dallas to start my new job with Beckett Media, not to write about sports but to write about entertainment titles and video games. So it'll probably be a week or more before I get settled in and am good to go for a resumption of blogging -- try not to jump off the cliff without me!

I was heartily amused by the picture gracing the top of Greg Easterbrook's TMQ column this week. While I don't agree that the reason for the Vikings struggles is Brett Favre's diva-ness, I still can't understand how anyone would think he wasn't running the show -- or at least thought he was running the show -- from day one.

"Brett, we have a deadline for you to sign by."

"No thanks."

"OK, well how about this deadline?"

"No, that doesn't work for me either?"

"Will this deadline do, Brett?"

"Yeah, maybe. You know, forget about it, I'm not coming back."

"OK."



"How about now? Please?"

"Well, since you asked so nicely..."

By Easterbrook's reckoning, Favre has "sabotaged" his recent teams by disagreeing with his head coaches over playcalling and possibly other aspects of the game. But look at who he's disagreed with. Eric Mangini and Brad Childress aren't exactly Bill Walsh and Bill Parcells. Given the choice between Favre calling the shots and Childress, I have to say at this point I have more confidence in Favre, as evidenced by that goal-line sequence in Monday night's game.

Easterbrook mentions a similar concept in last week's TMQ in reference to Peyton Manning's playcalling for the Colts:

But here, TMQ thinks, is the real reason the Indianapolis attack is so hard to stop, generating 23 victories in its last 24 games: Manning is the sole NFL quarterback who calls his own plays. [Offensive coordinator] Tom Moore says he radios in "suggestions" to Manning, and he's not being cute. Many plays drawn up by Moore and Manning have multiple options -- any one of several things can happen, depending on the defense. When Manning comes to the line, he chooses which variation to use. Most of the time, Manning simply calls whatever he wants to call. Often several of the receivers are running "sight adjustments." They don't have a specific pattern called at the line -- rather, they run what seems likely to be open given the defensive set.

Having Manning call his own plays is extremely effective. Obviously, many quarterbacks lack his level of ability. But TMQ thinks the real reason more NFL quarterbacks don't call their own plays is coaching bureaucracy. The coaches want to be in control, and maintain their illusion of possessing super-ultra-secret insider knowledge. No mere player could call a down-and-out -- only coaches have that kind of skill! By not letting quarterbacks call their own plays, NFL teams concede an advantage to the Colts. Which, needless to say, is fine with the Colts.

There should be absolutely zero questions that Brad Childress thinks himself a god among coaching and openly bristles at the notion that a mere player -- even one was experienced as Brett Favre -- could possibly call a game even remotely as well as he could. I don't think that Favre should call everything, but in key situations, he should be given more control than Childress is almost certainly willing to give.

Whatever the reason for the Vikings' troubles of late, I don't believe it has anything to do with Brett Favre's ego or lack of ability (but don't tell that to ESPN, which on Tuesday morning applied the headline "Fading with Favre" to the highlights of the Monday night game). As crazy as it seems, Favre probably isn't the biggest egomaniac on the Vikings' sideline, and that's a little scary to think.

(Oh, and congratulations to the Vikings' eight Pro Bowlers. The Pro Bowl -- now with extra meaninglessness!)

Random pregame thought

I hope Brett Favre throws for 6 touchdowns tonight. Not just because I want the Vikings to win or that I particularly like the guy but, man, the media's pounced on this whole Favre-vs.-Brad Childress "storyline" like a mother bear pouncing on a hunter endangering her cubs. Only I think the bear-mauling would be less painful (and over much quicker).

About that Viking who always fades in December

No, not Brett Favre. Here are Adrian Peterson's yards per carry by month:

	2007	2008	2009	Career
Sept	5.0	5.1	6.1	5.3
Oct	6.9	3.9	4.2	4.8
Nov	8.3	5.3	4.3	5.4
Dec	3.8	4.8	3.0	4.0

I think that a part of AP's issues might come from his oversized offensive line being out of shape by the end of the season. And it is only a three-year trend, so maybe it doesn't mean anything (and he was still pretty good in December of '08, even though his 4.8 YPC was the second-lowest in any month that season). But it's been brought up a few times that AP's "violent" running style might shorten his career -- could be that it shortens the period that he's useful in any given season.

* Next, I'll talk about the Vikings' head coach. And I'll also bring up Brad Childress.

How anyone could be surprised that Brett Favre is running the show, or at least thinks he's running the show, is beyond me. Over the Vikings' months-long courtship of Favre, several "deadlines" were set and just as many were missed. Hint: A deadline doesn't mean anything if you don't enforce it. Favre was able to come in when he wanted and how he wanted, which likely bore only passing resemblance to when and how the Vikings wanted him. He set his own deadlines and made the decisions that best suited him, not the team. This notion of Favre being his own boss was fine so long as the team was winning, but now that there's a rough patch, suddenly everyone is shocked and amazed that there's a "power struggle" behind the scenes. As far as I'm concerned, there is no "struggle"; Brett Favre's been in control since day one, and that's unlikely to change.

All of which brings up the question of whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. On the one hand, you have the self-serving "diva" of a quarterback; on the other, it's the smug and arrogant head coach who's accomplished very little but has been richly rewarded. I'm not sure who I want to be on top of that pyramid.

But in the end, winning cures all ills. If the Vikings finish strong and have a strong playoff run, then all this talk of a "power struggle" will go away. If the team loses to the Bears and/or Giants and then gets bounced out of the playoffs in the first round, then things will get even uglier.

Around the Internet on Thursday

In keeping with a tradition on this blog of regurgitating other people's hard work and creativity on a Thursday (going back one whole week!), here's some of what I've been reading this week:

First, the professionals:

* ESPN's Greg Easterbrook had an interesting observation with regards to teams extending mediocre head coaches part of the way through their "breakout" season:

Halfway through his first season as Notre Dame coach, Charlie Weis had a 5-2 record and immediately was offered a 10-year contract extension containing guaranteed payments that the school and its athletic donors now regret. Less than halfway through the 2008 NFL season, Dick "Cheerio, Chaps" Jauron had a 5-1 record and immediately was offered a three-year contract extension containing guaranteed payments that Bills owner Ralph Wilson now regrets. What's going on here? Why grant coaches extensions when they are already under contract, only to fire them later and be stuck with paying off the rest of the deal?

What's going on is that the general manager or athletic director, by offering an extension when the team is winning, essentially says to the world, "I am a genius for picking this guy." Later, when the same coach becomes a flop, the same front office spins things as, "We gave him everything he wanted and he still failed -- this guy is a failure." The extensions are all about the athletic director's, or general manager's, ego.

He doesn't mention Brad Childress in the piece, but I'm sure every Viking fan who read it was thinking of him...

* Joe Posnanski tells us that Brett Favre can actually be honest, when he wants to. I'm still not sure that I'm buying it.

* ESPN's Kevin Seifert thinks the Vikings shouldn't panic after their loss to Arizona. I, for one, am trying to maintain an even keel. A loss at home to the Bengals, though, might send me over the edge...

And now, the talented amateurs:

* Earlier this week, I was thinking that it might behoove the Vikings to spend a little extra coin -- say, $3 million or so -- on a good nickel corner in the offseason. Vikings Gab then reminded me that, in a way, we're already doing that.

* PJD has some ideas for Chad Ochocinco's touchdown celebrations (which we hope he won't have a chance to use) this week.

* And Joe Fischer tells us that the Vikings should both panic (Arizona could beat us out for the #2 seed) and not panic (Super Bowl teams have often absorbed crushing defeats). That's just the kind of schizophrenic "Our team's good but we'll do our best find a way to be bad" thinking I expect from a fellow Vikings fan!

Four more years!

If you're an owner with a head coach who's got a 32-25 career record and has never won a playoff game, what do you do?

Lock him up through 2013 while making him one of the highest-paid coaches in the league, that's what.

Maybe by 2013 Tony Dungy will want to come back? Please?

(In other news, the decision to move Thursday night games to NFL.com is working out great. I just now remembered that there was a game last night. Now. 11:04 a.m. Friday. And I live in Charlotte!)

Childress adds new wrinke to offensive playbook

Really, I could see Brett Favre lobbying for this play. I seriously could.

Passing Unfancy: Vikings/Steelers

The defense wasn't a problem on Sunday. Even with Antoine Winfield out (for a while, it seems), the Vikings held the defending Super Bowl champs' offense to a reasonable 259 yards and 13 points.

Unfortunately, the Vikings offense had the ball during the game too, and that rarely ended well. To wit:

* My father's name is Ronald, so whenever I see referee Ron Winter calling a game, I joke that he's my dad. If that's true, he's off my Christmas list this year. The most egregious bad call was the tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan, a play that I, my Steelers-fan friend, and the entire crew of NBC's Football Night in America, thought was an awful call. It negated a go-ahead touchdown pass to Sidney Rice, and three plays later, Brett Favre was sacked, stripped, and LaMarr Woodley was running to the end zone.

Also, earlier in the game, Benny Sapp was called for a 15-yard roughing call when he dove at Ben Roethlisberger just as he was heading out of bounds. He left his feet as Roethlisberger still had one foot inbounds, though he made contact after the quarterback was out of bounds. Dubious call, I thought, but since quarterbacks aren't allowed to be hit any more, I tried not to grouse too much...

...until a few minutes later, when Favre was shoved to the ground after releasing the ball. No flag. Again, it wasn't the most egregious sin, and one that shouldn't be a penalty in the NFL, but usually is. I hate to harp on officiating and use it as an excuse, but this was one of those kind of games where every questionable call seemed to go against the Vikings.

Except that tripping call. That wasn't questionable at all.

* When the Vikings weren't having penalties (11 in all) called against them or turning the ball over and giving up 6 points to the opposing defense, they were calling plays. Pass plays. All. The. Damn. Time.

Starting with the fifth drive, in the second quarter, here was the Vikings' play selection:

Fifth drive:
Run; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; run; run; pass; run

Sixth drive:
Pass; run; pass; pass; pass; run

Seventh drive:
Run (kneeldown at end of half)

Eighth drive:
Pass; run; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; pass; run (penalty); run; pass; pass

Ninth drive:
Run; pass; pass

Tenth drive:
Run; pass; pass; pass; pass; run; pass (penalty); pass; pass; pass; pass; run; pass; pass (penalty); pass; pass; pass

Discounting the kneeldown, from 10:34 in the second quarter until the Woodley touchdown at 6:23 in the fourth, the Vikings called 39 passes and 13 runs. Adrian Peterson had 11 runs (one negated by a penalty) and 2 receptions over that span. Five of those runs came with the ball spotted inside one team's five-yard line (four goal-line carries against the Steelers and one with the Vikings backed up on their own three), so Peterson only really had six chances for a big play for over half the game -- eight if you count his receptions (and I'm sure William Gay does).

With Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin ailing, instead of handing off to the best player in football, Brad Childress called plays designed for Greg Lewis, Jim Kleinsasser, and Naufahu Tahi, with predictable results. The Vikings never trailed by more than three during this span, and their last drive in the first half (#6) started with 3:30 on the clock, and actually included two runs in six plays (one a draw on third and long for Chester Taylor). Yes, there were some long-yardage plays in there, when passes seemed obvious, but again, are you better off running with Peterson or Taylor in those situations or tossing it to Tahi and Kleinsasser? And how exactly did you get in second-and-long and third-and-long? Perhaps by not running the ball as much as you should?

This was what I feared more than anything once it became obvious that Brett Favre could still get it done. Brad Childress desperately wanted to throw all the time when he had Tarvaris Jackson as his quarterback, so you knew that he was salivating over the possibility of throwing 50+ times a game with Favre in the game, and that's exactly what he did. The Vikings called 23 runs and 55 dropbacks (passes plus sacks), with 10 of them coming with the Vikings down and three and a half minutes or less in the game, when an all-pass approach is appropriate. Removing those and Favre's kneeldown, it was a 45:22 pass:run ratio. There is no way the Vikings should have a 2:1 pass:run ratio unless the score is out of hand or Peterson (and probably Taylor) is hurt. No way at all.

I know there are a lot of worthy choices, but this is Brad Childress's worst-called game ever. My friend and I kept saying, "This one will be a run. It has to be a run." We were rarely correct. People will say that the two Pittsburgh defensive TD returns and the questionable penalties were the reasons we lost, and while they didn't help, the team shouldn't have been in a situation where those two plays decided the game. This one goes on the coaching staff and a horrendous job of play calling.

Let's hold off on that contract extension talk, shall we?

Time to clock Big Ben

It's looking more and more like Antoine Winfield won't be in the starting defensive backfield for the Vikings when they travel to Pittsburgh on Sunday, and that could be trouble, if the second half against the Ravens was any indication. We've always had our reservations about Brad Childress' and Darrell Bevell's ability to think outside the box and craft a quality offense for the Vikings; this week, it might be up to Leslie Frazier to figure out a way to get enough pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to make up for Winfield's absence.

Roethlisberger represents a serious matchup problem for the Vikings. Yes, he holds on to the ball too long and takes a lot of sacks (3rd highest sack percentage among active quarterbacks, and highest among anyone who could be called a starter), but because of that -- and because defensive players tend to bounce off his 240-pound frame -- he keeps plays alive and completes a lot of downfield passes. He currently leads the league with 9.1 yards per attempt, which, if it holds out, would make him the third quarterback this decade (and only 11th since the merger) to average better than 9 yards per pass. He's already #3 among active quarterbacks, and his 12.6 yards per completion is the 2nd-best career mark in the NFL among active quarterbacks.

In other words, this game has all the appearance of mimicking the type of game we had against the Green Bay Packers, where Aaron Rodgers was sacked eight times but had 384 yards passing. As long as the final score looks roughly the same, I'll be happy.

On the bright side, no Steelers quarterback has ever thrown for more than 300 yards against the Vikings. In fact, only one has ever managed as many as 250, and it was a while ago. That probably owes more to the fact that the teams don't play each other very often, and both have been known for their defenses (and, in the Steelers' case, their running games) than for high-flying aerial attacks. Vikings QBs haven't fared much better over the years.

Unlike Baltimore, the Steelers still have a defense, though they'll be missing DE Aaron Smith, a major key to their 3-4 who's out for the season. Without him, Adrian Peterson has a very solid chance of topping 100 yards, despite the Steelers' allowing only 74.5 yards per game on the ground. That's skewed somewhat by the 16 yards San Diego put on them in week 4. Without Smith, even Cleveland managed 91 yards on the ground, though 45 of that came from Josh Cribbs in the wildcat. I'd expect a somewhat lower-scoring game this week -- maybe just in the 20s for each team. And hopefully more for the purple.

Now that's what I'm talking about!

When I lived in Wisconsin for three years, a fellow Vikings fan said to me, on a Monday morning in the office after the Vikings had beaten the Packers, "There's nothing I like to see more than sad Packer fans."

I don't know if Packer fans worldwide are more sad than they are enraged by their team's shoddy performance last night. Give credit to the Vikings pass rush, Jared Allen and his 4.5 sacks in particular, but no quarterback should be forced to spend time behind that purgatory of an offensive line. And any lingering Brett Favre fans in Packerland should have pretty much completely expunged whatever lingering love they had for #4 as he carved up the Packer secondary like...well, like he's carved up the Viking secondary for years.

Yes, I said it. I can grouse about Adrian Peterson's lousy 2.2 yards per carry (and fumble), or about the Vikings' letting the Packers back into the game late, or about Brad Childress's awe-inspiring new way to fail. (We didn't challenge because you couldn't get the red flag out of your pants?!? Are you actually an NFL head coach or just some guy the Wilfs found on the street outside the Metrodome?) But, apart from an interception that was overturned by a dubious pass interference call in the end zone, Brett Favre played a flawless game, completing 77.4 percent of his passes for 271 yards and three TDs, pump-faking the Green Bay defense to death while not taking a single sack. And he even threw passes consistently more than 6 yards downfield. Gee, this guy might actually have something left in the tank, at least in October. I'll have to reserve final judgment for January, though.

Admittedly, the Vikings got some help from the officials. In addition to that "pass interference" call, there were a few more that seemed almost suspiciously like some kind of "We have to make sure Favre wins" conspiracy by the NFL and ESPN. In total, the Packers were flagged for seven infractions while the Vikings, officially, only were hit with two yellow hankies, for a total of 10 yards. That said, when Jared Allen wasn't getting to Aaron Rodgers, especially on those final two Packer scoring drives, he was often egregiously held by the Packers' third-string left tackle, which was about the only way he could stop the man.

And how about that Sidney Rice? When we play pickup basketball, I want him on my team!

There were a few more flaws -- and some good plays -- in the Vikings' performance Monday night, but for now I'm happy to gloss over them and bask in the glow of a 4-0 team that's enjoying a two-game lead in its division and has a bye next week...

Wait, we play St. Louis? Same thing.

The pain! Make it stop!

It's like a disease that just won't go away.

ESPN is also reporting that Brett Favre's agent, Bus Cook, says that Favre still has no intention of going to the Vikings and that the Vikings' front office hasn't made any offers to Favre since breaking off talks a few months ago. So, in all likelihood, this is just a few players spreading rumors after being dissatisfied with the team's quarterbacking in Friday's preseason game against Indianapolis, despite Sage Rosenfels looking solid and Tarvaris Jackson slightly less so.

Chris Mortensen also reports that, according to some Vikings players, that Favre would have joined the team if he could have avoided training camp, which is sticking with his M.O. of doing as little work as possible to play on Sundays. His legendary status as a classic improviser has been so ingrained in him by the media and fans that he doesn't believe he needs to practice or learn a playbook, he'll just do something wacky when a play breaks down and, even if he throws a left-handed interception, people will just shake their heads at him and smile. It's just "Brett bring Brett," after all.

What is needed is for that paragon of discipline, Brad Childress, to speak to his team (and, only somewhat less importantly, the media) and say this to them: "Brett Favre is not joining this team. Our quarterbacks are Sage Rosenfels, Tarvaris Jackson, and John David Booty. That is not going to change. End of story. Deal with it." Of course, that will only be effective if Vikings' management takes the same stance, which, at least for the moment, appears to be the case. But, as always with Brett Favre, things can change at any time, and we won't know anything for sure until the first regular-season game, against Cleveland, on Sept. 13.

Winfield's new deal

So, about Antoine Winfield...

The new deal is reported to be a 5-year deal with $16 million guaranteed that could be worth as much as $36 million, with incentives, making it potentially similar to the 6-year, $33 million deal he signed during the 2003-04 offseason. The difference, of course, is that Winfield is now five years older and will be 36 years old when this new deal expires. As I pointed out earlier, cornerbacks in their mid-30s don't typically turn in great seasons. Even so, this is probably a pretty good contract for the Vikings.

While Winfield did have a career year last year, making his first Pro Bowl at the age of 31, it would be foolish to expect him to maintain that same high level of play as he advances through his 30s, even if he stays healthy. By committing only $16 million guaranteed to Winfield, the Vikings make a relatively small investment should he fall completely off the map and a slightly larger one if he does defy the odds and continue to produce Pro Bowl-caliber seasons. Winfield is clearly a unique cornerback, given his great tackling skills, so it's possible he won't decline much.

Even if he does lose a (or perhaps "another") step or two, he can serve as an insurance policy against Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson, if either should suffer lasting injuries or their quality of play should drop. Winfield would seem like a natural for a safety position if his duties as a cornerback prove too much as he ages, and the Vikings have a few potential replacements (such as Marcus McCauley and Asher Allen) for the other corner spot opposite Cedric Griffin, should Winfield be needed elsewhere. There might be some issue about whether Winfield would accept a "demotion" to safety -- his twice grousing about his contract leads me to think he's not exactly the definition of a "team player" -- but that's a distraction we won't have to worry about until at least after this year, when Brad Childress gets replaced by a coach who displays a smidge of authority (I can hope).

Here's the kicker, though, and why this contract could potentially be great for the Vikings: A major holdup in the signing of the contract was said to be the Vikings' unwillingness to tie up a bunch of money in Winfield while they were still courting Brett Favre and trying to keep enough money available for his eventual signing. Maybe, just maybe, they actually got tired of waiting for him and signed Winfield with some of the money earmarked for His Favreness, who will now decide that the piddling few millions the Vikings are willing to pay him aren't enough to come down off his throne and mingle with the commoners in training camp. If all that proves true, this might very well be the best contract the Vikings have ever given out.

Not remotely conflicted

I was meaning to talk about Antoine Winfield and his new contract today, but that was before the really important news about the Vikings hit yesterday.

Oh, the agony.

Favre already might have decided not to play this season, but he has had a tough time walking away because Vikings stars Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen and Steve Hutchinson have been encouraging him to sign.

Casting aside the sanity levels of Peterson, Allen, and Hutchinson, why should any of this matter? Oh wait, that's right: Brett Favre is a glory hound who wants everyone to love him and adore him and probably worship him, and gosh darn it, with the support of those three, that leaves 50+ Vikings who haven't begged him to come play for them! How could he possibly come play for the Vikings if everyone doesn't love him and want him to be there?

Fine, Brett, let me make it perfectly clear to you, because I want you to know at least one person is certain of where he stands, a concept you seem unable to grasp: I don't want you. You're not sure if you want to come play with us? Then don't. There are a lot of guys who do, they've all been to mini-camp and off-season practices, they're all ready for training camp. If you're not sure that want to be one of them, then don't. Go away.

Oh, sure, you want to be sure that your arm is 100%, that you can hold out for the whole season. Guess what? So does every other player. Football's a rough sport. Every player realizes that the next play could be his last. Of course, you might not be in this situation if you'd decided back in February that you'd wanted to come back, had your surgery then, and spent four months rehabbing it. For that matter, you might still be with the Jets, but that's beside the point.

Yes, the Vikings are partially to blame for this, as Brad Childress has had a man-love for Favre that rivals anything Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal could have come up with. But I'd wager that every newly retired once-great player gets overtures from his former team (and others) once he calls it quits. The Lions wanted Barry Sanders back (and the Patriots asked about him, too). The Bengals wanted Boomer Esiason back. The Vikings tried to convince Dan Marino to come back the year after he left the Dolphins. I'm sure the Broncos tried to coax John Elway to come back for one more year. And a few guys, like Cris Carter and Deion Sanders, did give in to temptation and come out of retirement. Neither of them were very good. But at least they came back (as far as I know) out of a desire for competition or just to play again, rather than a perverse and spiteful wish to get back at their old team and to have their new teammates beg for them to return.

I've tried to avoid venom and bile in my discussions of Brett Favre, tried to use rational arguments and facts to support my views, but I just can't any more. In the words of someone only slightly older and more twisted in his loyalties than you, Brett, "We don't need you...leave now and never come back!"

Antoine Winfield's contract situation

So, Antoine Winfield is unhappy and wants a new contract (Kudos, BTW, to the fine editors at Yahoo! Sports, for giving us the headline "Winfied frustrated with Vikes, contract situation." Who is this "Winfied"?) On the down side, contract issues are never fun to deal with. On the bright side, it gives us something to talk about that's not related to Brett Favre -- well, not directly, at least.

The 2009 season will be the last on the massive, 6-year, $34.8 million contract Winfield signed after the 2003 season. An athlete with a frontloaded contract (I think Winfield's due to make just around $3 million this year) wanting to tear up his last year and negotiate a new deal isn't anything new. On some level, I can sympathize with Winfield wanting to do that...

...if he hadn't done the same thing two years ago, that is.

Yes, way back when I first started blogging, one of my first posts was about Antoine Winfield's issues with his contract in the summer of 2007, when he still had three of the six years left on his deal. (Or maybe he didn't, though I think this was more about damage control and PR management than about anything else.) Now, here we are in the same situation, two years later. Winfield's still under contract, still obligated to play for the team through 2009, and still grousing about how the team doesn't see him as valuable enough to sign to a new deal.

To which I say: He probably isn't.

Antoine Winfield is a terrific tackler, no question. As a cover corner, though, he's probably not much more than average, and he's just turned 32 years old. When the 2010 season starts, he'll be 33. I realize Winfield's never been much of an interceptor, but consider this: of the 278 players who have intercepted 8 or more passes in a single season, five of them were age 33 or older. That leads me to believe that defensive backs -- especially defensive backs who are already losing a step or two at ages 31-32 -- don't make for good long-term investments at the age of 33 and up.

One legitimate complaint Winfield has is certainly the team's apparent interest in signing him to a deal earlier in the offseason, a plan that has apparently been derailed since the love affair between Brett Favre and Brad Childress started. On the one hand, you can understand Winfield being frustrated by the apparent reneging of the promise; on the other hand, he's worked with Brad Childress long enough by now that he should know that what he says and what he does rarely have any connection.

As with any aging, popular player (see Matt Birk), fans tend to look past their current and potential future contributions and focus solely on what they've done for the team in the past. You might occasionally get lucky and see a player return to form for a short while, but when you sign an aging player to a big contract, you're likely just paying for his past performance. Add in Winfield's semi-annual griping about his contract -- still a great deal, even with the explosion in cornerback salaries in recent years -- or the direction of the team and I have no problem letting him go after 2009.

Not out of the woods yet

Here's hoping the X-rays turn out poorly.

Hey, anyone out there with a broken arm near the Vikings HQ? Think you could sneak in your X-rays to Brad Childress in place of Brett Favre's?

No? Shoot.

But wait! He wants to stay retired!

Oh, hang on, that was on Wednesday. He could have changed his mind 62 times since then.

In fact, the ESPN article says that "Favre is motivated to continue his career, in part due to his disdain for Packers' management, and that he is eager to play again in the NFC North."

So, really, it could happen any time, up to the Vikings' first regular-season game on September 13. I wouldn't be shocked to hear that Favre says no, no, no, no up until September 12 and then says, "Well, maybe." That way, he gets to avoid training camp, preseason, team meetings -- you know, all that crummy "work" stuff that a legend like him shouldn't need to do. After all, he's just going to go out there and have fun like a kid in a playground making it up as he goes along and just having a good time --

Ok, step back, Jason. Take a deep breath.

Ahhhh...that feels good.

Fine. Until there is definite proof that something is actually going to happen in this whole, depressing affair, I'll stop talking about it, at least in such aserbic tones. Fact is, nobody knows right now, not ESPN, not Yahoo, not Brad Childress, not Bus Cook, probably not Favre himself.

Hey, is it too late to get Jay Cutler?

The nightmare refreshed

Le sigh.

Here we go again.

Fortunately, we don't have a head coach who believes he can take a quarterback from a Division I-AA school and turn him into the next Donovan McNabb. Or that he can take a rookie with an unorthodox skill set who likes to smoke pot more than he likes to play football to the point of getting himself tested positive at the NFL combine and mold him into a superstar.

And I'm sure we don't have a head coach who thinks he can take a nearly 40-year-old selfish attention whore of a quarterback who's committed to nobody but himself and his own legend and who's only had good season out of his last four and return him to his glory days.

I'm sure we don't have a head coach like that.

Sigh.

In truth, I think the chances of Brett Favre landing with the Vikings this time around are pretty close to nil. What bothers me is, now that the possibility's been raised, every other Vikings fan and media member will try to convince themselves that Favre would be a good choice for the Vikings, or really for any other NFL team.

Don't kid yourself into believing that. Even if you don't believe in Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels, nothing Brett Favre did last year should convince you that he wants anything but a shot at the Packers and to pad his legacy. From his tearful "retirement" (the first one) to his "Why did you abandon me?" mindset toward the Packers to his poor play as the season wore on -- or as it moved past, say, September, after which he had 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions -- there is no reason whatsoever to believe that Brett Favre should be a Viking.

Don't buy into the "late-game heroics" hype. Yes, he's roasted the Vikings on more than one occasion, but his record against us is a so-so 17-14. His career passer rating in "late & close" situations is a subpar 69.1. And, the big thing -- to come from behind late, you have to be...well, behind. Certainly, that's sometimes the defense's fault, but tossing four interceptions through the first three quarters just so you can have a game-winning TD pass in the fourth doesn't qualify as "heroic" to me. More like "mediocre."

Favre is a great quarterback, and deserving of the Hall of Fame when (if) he retires. But every great player reaches the age at which he can no longer carry on as he did in his youth. The problem with Brett Favre is he's like a child who wants candy for dinner. He's going to keep getting it until someone tells him "no." Let's hope the Vikings can play the responsible adult.

Oh mercy, we got Percy

I had my heart set on an offensive lineman.

When Detroit passed on taking an offensive lineman with their #20 pick, I rejoiced. I didn't know exactly what Cleveland's needs were, but I was hopeful that they would pass on tackle Michael Oher. I was even hoping that, with their sudden receiver needs, that they'd take Percy Harvin, preventing the Vikings from doing so (which I knew they'd be tempted to do) and landing Oher, who was projected as going about 8-10 picks earlier.

Cleveland took Alex Mack, another potential target for the Vikings, but Oher was still on the board. ESPN highlighted Oher, who was in New York, waiting to be drafted. All the signs pointed to Oher. I thought positive...Oher, Oher, Oher...

"The Minnesota Vikings select Percy Harvin, wide receiver, Florida."

I nearly threw my phone into the TV.

I know what I said about not evaluating the draft too early and giving guys a chance to develop. But this is the worst possible situation for Harvin and the Vikings and has a strong possibility of developing into the biggest bust of the first round.

Harvin is like Reggie Bush, Jr. Meaning that he'll wow you here and there but won't be the kind of consistent performer you look for in a first-round pick. Bush is more flashy than he is great, averaging 3.7 yards per rush for his career and 7.5 per reception -- mediocre numbers for a running back, much less the #2 overall pick.

Harvin isn't Bush, per se, and though he's listed as a wide receiver, he actually had more rushes in college than receptions. That's probably due to his usage in Urban Meyer's spread offense, which has produced such NFL notables as Deshawn Wynn, Chad Jackson, Dallas Baker, Chris Leak, and Alex Smith. Yeah. Good luck to the team that drafts Tim Tebow next year -- you're going to need it.

Still, you look at the way Sean Payton utilizes Bush in New Orleans and figure that there might be a way for an inventive coach and innovative offensive coordinator to use Harvin in a way that would contribute to a high-powered, attack-oriented offense.

If only we had any of those.

Harvin's also got the fabled "character issues"; he failed a drug test at the combine, when you know you're going to be tested (ESPN said that he was either "stupid" or "had a real problem," neither of which are desirable). Brad Childress apparently sat down with him earlier this week and was convinced that's all behind him. And hey, we all trust Brad Childress's judgment, right?

The Vikings did address their offensive line issues in round two, taking mammoth (6'7 3/4". 332 lbs.) tackle Phil Loadholt out of Oklahoma, who looks to be an awesome road-grader as a run blocker but could have trouble dealing with speedy defensive ends while protecting the pass.

Still, the success of this draft for the Vikings will undoubtedly ride on the success of Harvin in a purple uniform. With Oher taken one pick later by the Ravens, a lot of people (including me) will be comparing the career paths of the two and grading them against each other. In the shorter term, if Harvin even smells like a bust in 2009...well, maybe our next head coach will know what to do with him.

One-liners for Thursday

Having a bit of a stressful week, so I'm going to take it easy with a series of short but sweet links and a dash of smarm for each:

Tarvaris Jackson will start this Sunday for the Vikings against the Falcons. Gus Frerotte, meanwhile, has signed an endorsement contract with LifeAlert. ("I've fallen, and I can't get up!")

Advanced NFL Stats thinks the Vikings have an 84% chance of winning the NFC North and an 8% chance of earning a first-round bye. It also puts the odds at Mike Singletary "dropping trou" again in 2008 at 18%.

NFL Hall-of-Famer "Slingin'" Sammy Baugh passed away, at the age of 94. Which is a shame, because I think he figured into the Vikings' 2009 QB plans.

68%. I'm not sure I believe it. Hell, I'm not even sure I disagree with it.

A fascinating study of the role of luck in the outcome of an NFL season, done by the guys at pro-football-reference two years ago (that I just stumbled upon). He simulated 10,000 NFL seasons and...well, read the several posts yourself. In this one, he simulates 2005 10,000 times, and an obvious flaw in his system is revealed: Somehow, the Vikings win the Super Bowl (which we know is impossible) 36 times.

And one non-football link:

The coolest Christmas present ever? This GPS that features the voice of the guy who voiced KITT in the original Knight Rider! You can set it to use your name or (my preference), leave it on the default setting of "Michael." Only thing that would be better would be a Patrick Stewart-voice GPS that, after it gives you directions, says, "Engage."

A win's a win

Right?

Even when you beat the league's worst team by four points?

Even when you sweep a historically bad team by a total of six points in two games?

Yeesh.

Yes, the Vikings did beat the Lions, sending the Motor City Kitties tumbling down to 0-13 in the process. And the Vikings went to 8-5 on the season, keeping a one-game division lead on the Chicago Bears. And hey, with the Packers losing and dropping to 5-8, that pretty much eliminates them from the playoffs. So it's a good day all around, right?

Well, yeah. I guess I'm happy. Then why don't I feel like it?

Probably because, at least in terms of the "visible" coaching, frequent scapegoat Brad Childress was fine. Play calling was fine, with 30 runs to 22 passes (and two kneeldowns). The defense had four sacks and three fumbles and, apart from one play, held the Detroit offense in check.

No, if any blame has to be assigned for this week's not-as-dominant-as-we-would-have-liked victory, it has to rest squarely on the players' shoulders.

And you have to start with the main man himself, Adrian Peterson. Three fumbles? Really? And nearly a fourth? All this with a "meh" 4.4 yards per carry against the league's worst rushing defense (though some of that blame can also go on the offensive line). Is that really all you've got late in the season when you're team's fighting for the division title?

Speaking of running the ball, at one point, my friend turned to me and asked, "Are you sure they didn't suspend the Williams brothers?" Looking at the final numbers, I'm amazed to see that the Lions finished with just 76 rushing yards and a 2.8 average, because they sure seemed to be running well throughout the game.

Five offsides calls. Guys, there's this thing, see. It's called the line of scrimmage. You're supposed to line up behind it. Got that? Good.

Gus Frerotte. Yech. Now, didn't I say a couple weeks ago that if Tarvaris Jackson has to play, it won't actually be the worst thing in the world, as bad as Gus has looked over the past month? Sad as it sounds, I think the best QBs on the field yesterday were, in order, Daunte Culpepper, Tarvaris Jackson, and Gus Frerotte.

And then there was Benny "the sap" Sapp. Redeemed himself with a late interception last week against Chicago after a boneheaded personal foul gave the Bears a free first down. This week he again had an awful penalty (holding) that negated a third-down sack and gave the Lions new life, which they'd cash in on the very next play for a 70-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson (running right past Cedric Griffin). He was also flagged for one of the offsides penalties above...really, how does a DB line up offsides? Come on.

The thing is, we can never know what amount of coaching leads to these mistakes. And really, to a large extent, you have to blame it on the players. A DB lining up offsides isn't the coach's fault. A running back (who's normally very sure-handed) fumbling three times isn't the coach's fault. A journeyman 37-year-old QB looking his age isn't the coach's fault. If the Vikings would have lost this game, it wouldn't have helped Brad Childress's case any, but I would have had a hard time pinning this one on the head coach.

But...in the end, the Vikings did win, and next week they head to Arizona in what is essentially a battle for the #3 seed in the NFC and a chance to avoid playing the Giants in the second round. Still, this has the look of a team that, if it has to play a good team on the road in the playoffs, will get beaten like a rented mule. But until then, we can hope for a division win, maybe a fluke upset of the Giants (either by us or by another team so that we can host another playoff game), and maybe, just maybe, if Gus can't go, we can hope for another solid outing by T-Jack in the desert next week.

Or is that asking too much?