What's wrong with Adrian Peterson?

First, the caveats: I am not a running back, offensive lineman, coach, or even a waterboy, nor have I ever been. What follows are nothing more than observations from a somewhat informed and moderately intelligent (maybe) fan. But it doesn't take much intelligence to realize something has gone terribly wrong with the Vikings' running game for the past month and a half and that the Vikings' star running back has looked more like Adrian Murrell than Adrian Peterson over that span.

First, the numbers: In his first six games, AP accumulated 683 yards at 5.1 yards per carry. In his last six, he's managed just 485 yards and 3.9 per carry -- which doesn't sound too bad until you realize that 133 of those yards came in one game against Detroit (which actually has a surprisingly decent rushing defense this year). Take that one game out and AP has just 352 yards on 105 carries, a 3.4-yard average. That's a far cry from the 5.0 or so a carry we're used to seeing from him and has turned the Vikings into a badly one-dimensional team, which may have finally caught up with them in Arizona.

(Though I again doubt the "wisdom" that says Brett Favre had a bad game because the Cardinals were stopping the run and forcing him to pass a lot. If the Cards are playing eight in the box and stuffing the run, shouldn't that make it easier to pass? Again, the whole "good rushing game helps the passing game and vice versa" argument fails to pass the logic test. The lack of a running game may have forced the team into too many 3rd-and-longs, which would certainly have contributed to a poor passing performance, but that wouldn't explain how the team did on first and most second downs.)

Having watched the Vikings and their suddenly anemic running game over those six games, here are my (likely misguided) on what's wrong with the team and with Peterson himself:

The offensive line isn't opening up holes. Seems obvious enough, but why? How can a team with two road-graders at the tackle position and an all-world left guard suddenly not be able to block? Are John Sullivan and Anthony Herrera (or Artis Hicks) that bad?

I wouldn't say so, because no matter where the team is running, left, right, or center, the blocking is subpar. There's no push up the middle (When's the last time you say the Vikings' O-line move the line of scrimmage two or three yards downfield?) and outside runs are usually stopped before they can get started. Meanwhile, watch any big Chris Johnson run this year, and you'll see either a hole open up for him or a seal on the outside that allows him to turn the corner and run to daylight. Remember when we had an offensive line that could do that?

I don't know what the solution is, but this is one that's hard to pin on AP, at least. Or is it?

AP's slowing down. At least half a dozen times a game, it seems like AP gets just enough of a crease, starts striding downfield -- and then a tackler emerges from out of nowhere to get a piece of his leg or knock him down and he's limited to a three-yard gain. Again, maybe this is just my feeble observations or my expectation that he could do better, but these kind of plays seem to happen with frustrating regularity these days. If AP just had a little more juice or just could make a slight adjustment to his trajectory, he could avoid that tackler and rip off a big run. Clearly, at this stage of the season, every player is playing hurt, running backs especially, but maybe AP's got a little bit more of a hitch in his get-up than he'd like everyone to know and it's hurting his ability to make those sudden moves when he does have a hole to run through, however small. He's also getting caught from behind more times than I'd like to see. It's neat that he can run over William Gay, but is his physical running style costing him speed?

Cut the cutbacks. His TD run against the Lions notwithstanding, the cutback just hasn't been there for AP, but he keeps trying it anyway. It's a simple premise, really: If you stop running, the defense can catch up to you easier. I know that the line isn't opening up lanes for him to run through, but stopping and then trying to run in another direction where there isn't any room doesn't solve anything. I'd rather see AP run straight ahead into the line and hope that he can squirt through the other side or run over someone than cut back into another defender. And speaking of running straight ahead...

Stop running sideways. Going all the way back to the Steelers game, I was lamenting the stretch play every time it was run. The Vikings have stuck with it, though, to their detriment. It has all the potential of a pass to Naufahu Tahi, and usually can't even match the guaranteed three yards that play gets. In fact, I think this play has lost yardage more often than it's gained any. AP's lack of acceleration and the offensive line's inability to get out and throw blocks -- this isn't Matt Birk pulling from center any more -- have relegated his play to an automatic loss of down.

The next time the Tennessee Titans are on TV, watch how Chris Johnson runs and how his line blocks for him. It's amazing to see someone get that much open space, and I wonder how we can get back to that kind of rushing attack. I hope it happens over the next month or so, or else the Vikings will be in for yet another early preseason exit.

Antoine Winfield's contract situation

So, Antoine Winfield is unhappy and wants a new contract (Kudos, BTW, to the fine editors at Yahoo! Sports, for giving us the headline "Winfied frustrated with Vikes, contract situation." Who is this "Winfied"?) On the down side, contract issues are never fun to deal with. On the bright side, it gives us something to talk about that's not related to Brett Favre -- well, not directly, at least.

The 2009 season will be the last on the massive, 6-year, $34.8 million contract Winfield signed after the 2003 season. An athlete with a frontloaded contract (I think Winfield's due to make just around $3 million this year) wanting to tear up his last year and negotiate a new deal isn't anything new. On some level, I can sympathize with Winfield wanting to do that...

...if he hadn't done the same thing two years ago, that is.

Yes, way back when I first started blogging, one of my first posts was about Antoine Winfield's issues with his contract in the summer of 2007, when he still had three of the six years left on his deal. (Or maybe he didn't, though I think this was more about damage control and PR management than about anything else.) Now, here we are in the same situation, two years later. Winfield's still under contract, still obligated to play for the team through 2009, and still grousing about how the team doesn't see him as valuable enough to sign to a new deal.

To which I say: He probably isn't.

Antoine Winfield is a terrific tackler, no question. As a cover corner, though, he's probably not much more than average, and he's just turned 32 years old. When the 2010 season starts, he'll be 33. I realize Winfield's never been much of an interceptor, but consider this: of the 278 players who have intercepted 8 or more passes in a single season, five of them were age 33 or older. That leads me to believe that defensive backs -- especially defensive backs who are already losing a step or two at ages 31-32 -- don't make for good long-term investments at the age of 33 and up.

One legitimate complaint Winfield has is certainly the team's apparent interest in signing him to a deal earlier in the offseason, a plan that has apparently been derailed since the love affair between Brett Favre and Brad Childress started. On the one hand, you can understand Winfield being frustrated by the apparent reneging of the promise; on the other hand, he's worked with Brad Childress long enough by now that he should know that what he says and what he does rarely have any connection.

As with any aging, popular player (see Matt Birk), fans tend to look past their current and potential future contributions and focus solely on what they've done for the team in the past. You might occasionally get lucky and see a player return to form for a short while, but when you sign an aging player to a big contract, you're likely just paying for his past performance. Add in Winfield's semi-annual griping about his contract -- still a great deal, even with the explosion in cornerback salaries in recent years -- or the direction of the team and I have no problem letting him go after 2009.

Writer's Block

With little news happening in Viking-land since the departure of Matt Birk and a few other semi-notable but not exactly earth-shattering re-signings (Heath Farwell and Benny Sapp -- and who the heck is Karl Paymah?), and with not even a Jay Cutler rumor to throw around any more, I've had a hard time coming up with ideas for new blog posts.

(I do have something interesting in the works, but the details are still being hashed out and I'd rather not talk about it in the meantime. Yeah, yeah, I'm such a tease.)

Fortunately, other bloggers aren't having as much trouble finding new material as I am. Here's the best of what I found:

* Advanced NFL Stats wonders what the NFL will be like without a salary cap, which could be the case in 2010.

* Pacifist Viking makes fun of Peter King's feelings about the Vikings quarterback situation, which really isn't Favre that hard when you Favre consider King's other Favre opinions on the matter. Favre.

* Luft is just as bored with the Vikings' off-season as I am, but at least he's more loquacious than I am about it.

* Finally, if you want to see the worst way to try and get a pro athlete to sign a card for you, check out Pat Neshek's February 27 entry on his blog. C'mon, buddy, it's not that hard to use a computer and substitute name and position, even manually. I do it all the time in cover letters (which might explain why I'm still looking for work).

Random thoughts for the day

Good luck, Matt. You were a great player for many years, and a quality guy. I know he was getting a bit long in the tooth and had lost a couple steps, but it'll be hard to see him suit up in another uniform. At least he'll still be wearing purple.

* Isn't it great that, among units of measurement in the U.S., we have the inch, the foot, the yard, the mile...and the football field?

Really, how many times have you heard something like, "The base of the Great Pyramid covers an area equal to 27 (I'm making that number up) football fields" or "The car traveled the length of a football field in just 1.7 seconds." That's what baseball gets for having all those wacky dimensions in their parks -- they can't be used as a standard unit of measure!

* I think I want Terrell Owens to go to the Bears, which is rumored to be one of the places he might end up (despite what this article says, I think the chance of him landing in Minnesota are just about nil). If he didn't like having Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo throwing to him, what would he think of Kyle Orton?

* Speaking of the Bears, can anyone tell me why Gale Sayers is in the Hall of Fame? I'm still puzzled by this. He was "good-Devin-Hester" on (a rather small number of) kickoff returns for three years, put up OK-but-not-great rushing numbers for five, and finished his career with less than 5,000 yards rushing. I'm still not getting something, obviously.

* No T.O. for the Vikings (I hope), but Torry Holt wouldn't be bad.

* Finally, while it's nice to browse pictures of Alyssa Milano all day, I'm puzzled by her choice of teams for her line of MLB apparel. If you'll notice the list on the left, there are 27 teams listed. The only ones not present are the Blue Jays, Rays -- both of whom rate near the bottom of the league in popularity -- and the Twins, who have been ranked considerably higher all decade.

Just for that, Alyssa, I'm only going to look at pictures of you for one hour today, instead of two. That'll learn ya.

Vikings' Best Possible Draft, 1998

One of the earliest posts on my revitalized blog was about the 1997 NFL Draft and the picks the Vikings could have made instead of the ones they did make, using 10 years' worth of hindsight. I called it the BPD, or Best Possible Draft. Here's a bit of the description of the system from that post:

In other words, if the top of my draft looked like this:

1: Troy Aikman (DAL)
2: Tony Mandarich (GB)
3: Barry Sanders (DET)

And I was figuring the Packers' BPD, I'd probably say they pick Sanders, who was available with their #2 pick, but not Aikman, who was off the board. In general, your best pick will fall between your current pick and your next pick, though this wasn't always the case. And, of course, evaluation of players' abilities and the success of their careers is completely at my whim.

I didn't take a team's positional needs at the time of the draft into account, but I also didn't give them a completely implausible draft (like 6 running backs). Even though the 1997 version of the draft presented below is largely defensive, it's at least realistic.

So, without further ado, let's fast-forward a year to the 1998 Draft and see how the Vikings fared and how they could have done if they'd had a crystal ball (or at least, access to a Vikings-loving time traveler):

Round 1, Pick 21
Actual: Randy Moss, WR
BPD: Randy Moss, WR (picked 1-21)

Hard to argue with Moss here. OK, you can argue, based on how things went off the field, but I always felt that Moss was fine as long as he had someone to control him a bit. In the early days, that was Dennis Green and Cris Carter. When Carter left and Green lost whatever disciplinary skills he may have once possessed, things went downhill. Then we have Mike Tice and, with Oakland, Norv Turner and Art Shell, and Moss is a "problem child."

Then "Bam!", send him to Bill Bellichek and everything's rosy. Who would have thunk it? Well, me for one.

Anyway, there are some good players between this pick and the Vikings' next, including Alan Faneca, Flozell Adams, and Patrick Surtain. But I'll stick with the Vikings' real pick.

Round 2, Pick 51
Actual: Kailee Wong, LB
BPD: Olin Kreutz, C (3-64)

Wong was wrong for the Vikes, turning in four unremarkable seasons before going to Houston in the expansion draft in 2002. Assuming I'd know everything about the 1998 draft in advance, it's a tough choice between Kreutz and Ahman Green, and even Jeremiah Trotter seems a decent choice. Of course, the Vikings did draft a center in this draft -- but we'll get to that later.

Round 3, Pick 80
Actual: Ramos McDonald, DB
BPD: Hines Ward, WR (3-92)

Easy selection here. Yes, this overloads the Vikings a bit at WR (they would at this point have Carter, Moss, Ward, and Jake Reed) but provides the team with a good young core to overtake the aging Carter and the inconsistent Reed. Plus, with those wide receivers -- all of them great blockers -- Robert Smith might not have seen the need to retire after the 2000 season.

OK, probably not.

Round 4, Pick 110
Actual: Kivuusama Mays, LB
BPD: Jason Fabini, T (4-111)

Mays had a cool name, but that was about all he had going for him. As for Fabini, it's a toss-up between him and guard Benji Olson (Titans), picked in the fifth round. We'll get to why I went with the tackle in a moment. We've already got a center and a tackle, so next, of course, we'll have to pick...

Round 5, Pick 144
Actual: Kerry Cooks, DB
BPD: Matt Birk, C (6-173)

...another center? Well, maybe. Remember back in the early days of Birk's career, when he was one of the league's rare pulling centers? Imagine and offensive line of Kreutz at center, Birk at guard, and Fabini at tackle. Remember, in those days the Vikings still had Todd Steussie, Randall McDaniel, and Korey Stringer, though all would be gone by the 2001 season (Stringer, unfortunately, for good).

Yeah, I know we don't have any defensive picks at this point. But man, what an O-line!

Round 6, Pick 173
Actual: Matt Birk, C
BPD: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6-187)

And taking Birk a round early frees us up to select Hasselbeck here, meaning the Vikings take a good pick away from both Chicago (Kreutz) and Green Bay (Hasselbeck). Brilliant!

Round 7, Pick 208
Actual: Chester Burnett, LB
BPD: Nate Wayne, LB (7-219)

Pickings are understandably thin at this point, but Wayne at least was a decent starter for a few years for the Pack. And that's yet another pick "stolen" from an NFC North foe.

Round 7, Pick 225
Actual: Tony Darden, DB
BPD: Pat Tillman, DB (7-226)

Nuff said.

Variety for Monday

* Given his Harvard education, Matt Birk is probably, book-wise, the smartest guy on the Vikings' roster. But it never hurts to have a valedictorian -- from Chaska, no less -- on the offensive line. Between Tim Mattran and Notre Dame center John Sullivan, drafted in the 6th round, the Vikings seem to be getting ready to move on without Birk in 2009.

* The pro-football-reference.com blog has started a series of articles about the early NFL. If, like me, you like reading about the NFL in the 1920s and 1930s (and who doesn't?), it's a good read to get a sense of how the multibillion-dollar league got its humble start.

* So maybe I was wrong and the Vikings did have a desperate need for a defensive end before picking up Jared Allen. I knew about Kenichi Udeze's situation, but I thought Darrion Scott was still with the team and not just a free agent getting arrested for assaulting a child.

* I suppose I'd have a dorky smile like the guy on the right if I was dating the girl on the left.

* Former Viking Ivan Caesar passed away recently. With a name like that, he was probably better suited for conquering nations than playing linebacker. Sadly, his middle name was "Orsen," and not something more fitting, like "Napoleon."

* Having a little more fun with the Historical Data Dominator, I see that Adrian Peterson is already the #21 all-time rusher for the Vikings (and can move into the top 10 with 1,207 yards in 2008) and that Tarvaris Jackson is #13 in interceptions (and can move into the top 10 with 7 in 2008).

* If you made a list of "Guys in the NFL you thought would be involved in a shooting," wouldn't you say that Marvin Harrison would have to be right about at the bottom of that list?

* As if the Packers don't have enough QBs in camp to try and replace Brett Favre, now it looks like they've signed Bledsoe.

* Like Jason Giambi many years ago, Roger Clemens is sorry he did "stuff." Or, more appropriately, "things," since he hasn't admitted to actual steroid use (yet). Or, even more appropriately, "15-year-old girls." Gee, Roger, I thought you were a paragon of virtue?

* The Twins are improbably in first place, leading the White Sox by 1.5 games, due in part to the Twins winning their last five and the Sox losing their last five. The best part of that news, of course, is that it gave [bleeping] Ozzie Guillen the chance to go off on Chicago media and fans.