Theory #287 why the Vikings can't run the ball

Our offensive linemen are too big.

You'll hear it at least once per broadcast, the announcers' open astonishment at the mammoth sizes of Minnesota's tackles. Bryant McKinnie is 6'8", 335 lbs. Phil Loadholt is 6'8", 343 lbs. Toss in Steve Hutchinson (6'5", 313), John Sullivan (6'4", 301), and Anthony Herrera (6'2", 315) and that's an average of 6'5 1/2" and 321 pounds per lineman -- and that' s not taking Artis Hicks' 6'4", 335 lbs. into account. Guys this big should be able to move mountains or, failing that, defensive lineman.

But they're not. And it took this video for me to figure out why.

Chris Johnson is having a spectacular year. Talent-wise, you'd have to think Adrian Peterson is at least on par with him -- perhaps a little slower, but also a little stronger. But where Peterson is struggling, Johnson is thriving. Watch the play that starts at the 0:58 mark. Johnson takes a screen pass and starts running downfield with the ball. Admittedly, he doesn't turn on the jets right away (as he shouldn't), but even so, two of his lineman run downfield with him for about 30 yards! For the record, that's #54 Eugene Amano (6'3", 310 lbs.) and #68 Kevin Mawae (6'4", 289 lbs.) running with him.

Now, name any of the Vikings' linemen -- much less two -- who could even remotely run downfield with Adrian Peterson. (Maybe this is why we don't call may screen passes.) Granted, Kevin Mawae's a future Hall-of-Famer, but, along with Amano (LG) and Mawae (C), the Titans starters include LT Michael Roos (315 lbs.), RG Jake Scott (295 lbs.), and RT David Stewart (318 lbs.). That's an average of 305 lbs. per lineman, or about 16 pounds lighter per player than the Vikings' line. And not only is Chris Johnson on his way to 2,000 yards, but Titans quarterbacks have only been sacked 14 times this year (and only 12 times last year), fewer than half of the 31 sacks Brett Favre has endured in 2009. All this with a line whose heaviest member (Stewart) would be about two missed meals away from being the second-lightest member of the Vikings' line.

I'm no offensive line coach, but I'm thinking it's true that bigger isn't always better. Clearly, there have been some huge lineman, tackles in particular, who have had very long and productive careers (Johnathan Ogden comes to mind), but once you tip the scales over 330 or so, you might be treading a fine line between power and agility. And even the biggest offensive lineman needs agility to react to blitzing linebackers and to move the pile downfield.

Or at least not to get completely owned by Julius Peppers for 60 minutes.

Coping with morning sickness

After a day or two to fully digest and excrete Monday's game (and it certainly did resemble a pile of...well, you know), I'm nudging back from the ledge a few steps and taking a broader, and hopefully saner, view of the game. I'll start with the positives.

When he can display some accuracy, Tarvaris Jackson does have a heck of an arm. I'm still trying to figure if him rarely finding open receivers is the receivers not getting open or him not finding them. Neither are great, but I'm willing to cut him some slack if it's the receivers' fault they're hardly ever open (though the routes selected and overall playcalling by the coaches probably also bears a large share of the blame).

Yes, Jackson was forced to scramble nine times, but he was only sacked once. Overall, the O-line held up reasonably well, considering the absence of Bryant McKinnie, and the running backs averaged better than five yards a carry against what looks to be a pretty good Packer defense.

I'm not a huge fan of ball-control stats unless you can do it consistently, but there's something to be said for limiting the Packers to just 49 offensive snaps while having 69 of your own. Granted, two of the Packers' snaps netted them 113 yards. Viewed differently, that means that, apart from those two semi-flukish plays, they netted just 4.3 yards per snap.

Aaron Rodgers is actually good, and he's in his fourth year in the NFL. Let's get this whole "How did we lose to a guy making his first career start?" business out of the way. Or maybe you'd rather be the Bengals or Lions, who lost to two rookie QBs making their first start (Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan).

Yeah, it was the Packers, and that hurts. But if we'd lost to Indy by five points in the opener instead, would it have been so bad?

So, when it comes down to it, maybe I'm grasping at straws a bit. Then again, what if Bernard Berrian had stayed on his feet on that one pass in the third quarter? Then the team gets a TD instead of a FG on that drive, goes for one instead of failing on the two-point try, and...

Sure, both teams probably would have played different the rest of the way. But anytime you wind up so close to the other team, you were only one play away from winning. Yeah, there are still some things to fix, particularly in the play calling (I absolutely guarantee you that there will be some trickery -- a fake field goal, reverse pass, surprise onside kick, whatever -- in next week's game), but I'll at least go into next week's game thinking the team can still pull it out.

And hey -- Monday's game was still better than the team's last trip to Green Bay.

McKinnie suspended

In what should really have come as no surprise, the NFL hit LT Bryant McKinnie with a four-game suspension as punishment for his skirmish and arrest outside a night club in Miami in February.

It's hardly McKinnie's first brush with the law. He was perhaps the most incriminated member of the team in the "Love Boat" scandal, along with then-Vikings Fred Smoot and Moe Williams. He got away from that with just a $1,000 fine and community service, but the Miami incident includes four charges, including felony battery, and he will go to trial next month. Now, being a famous pro athlete, and considering that nobody was seriously hurt, McKinnie probably won't face any serious repurcussions, off the field. But in the meantime, he'll sit on the sidelines for the first quarter of the season while his team tries to replace him.

Artis Hicks will probably get the first chance to replace McKinnie on the left side of the line, and it'll be up to him to protect Tarvaris Jackson's blind side against the likes of Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Dwight Freeney, and Julius Peppers, all of whom will line up against the Vikings in the first month of the season. Hicks has started 49 of his 66 games at guard in his NFL career, including the last two preseason games, so it's not as if the team's throwing an inexperienced rookie out there. Still, with roster cuts coming later today, don't be surprised if the Vikings make a play for a veteran left tackle, to at least provide an insurance policy should Hicks' play prove inadequate.

Whether he's replaced by Hicks or another player, what will be the impact of losing McKinnie for four games? The Vikings play Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, and Tennessee in those first four games, probably one of the toughest stretches in their 2008 schedule. Those four teams were a combined 43-21 in 2007, and while using last year's records to predict this year's strength of schedule is dicey, two of those teams (Indy and Tennessee) are mostly unchanged, while one (Green Bay) lost its quarterback and another (Carolina) is essentially regaining its starting quarterback (Jake Delhomme). Truthfully, even with McKinnie and a healthy Madeiu Williams, who should miss all but the Tennessee game, I wouldn't have been surprised to see the Vikings start 2-2 out of the gate -- and I still think the team will win around 11 games on the season. But with the high hopes some fans have for the team, if they start 2-2 -- or even 1-3 -- will the lack of McKinnie (and, to an extent, Williams) be seen as the reason for the "slow" start? Possibly, but I'll try to remain optimistic, even if September is a little bleak.

A post on Vikings Ragnarok from a few months ago also gave me optimism for the possibility of McKinnie's looming suspension. Make sure to read the ESPN.com article he links to, which seems to indicate that a team losing a top offensive lineman doesn't lose much in terms of rushing offense or pass protection -- the two things linemen are most reponsible for -- the next season. And that study is over a full season; losing McKinnie for a quarter of a season should be less of an impact.

And, truthfully, while McKinnie is definitely above average, you can question whether he's truly "elite" and whether the drop-off from him to Hicks is as great as the drop-off Baltimore will experience when trying to replace Jonathan Ogden. The Vikings' o-line is probably due to come down a bit after last year's stellar performance, and judging by the running game's poor performance in the preseason, it might happen whether McKinnie's on the field or not. In the end, he's one starter out of 22, with an experienced and somewhat capable backup behind him. The Vikings can survive four games without him, though they'll be glad to have him back.

Top 20 Minnesota Vikings

Everybody loves a list! Therefore, I present to you, in the spirit of "still too long until training camp begins and we need something to talk about," the top 20 current and most valuable Minnesota Vikings. That means that, for each one, you have to ask, "What would be the damage to the team if we lost that player?" and not simply a question of whether he's a better player than the one ranked underneath him. Some consideration should also be given to a player's age and how likely it is that the team will need to replace him in the near future anyway.

As a result, my #1 pick may come as a bit of a surprise to most...

1. Jared Allen, DE. This is a definite case of looking at how Allen will likely improve the team and what the options are if he misses time. Ray Edwards and Brian Robison are OK, but Allen is an absolute beast of a pass rusher who's also very good against the run. His presence will make the rest of the defensive line and, by extension, the rest of the defense a top-notch unit.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB. He's the most electrifying player on the team and the best bet to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. The only reason I bump him down to #2 is the presence of Chester Taylor and the great skill of the offensive line, which allowed three backs last year to average better than 5.0 yards per carry. It's a tough call, and he's amazing to watch, but think about it, really -- would you rather have to rely on Chester Taylor to run the ball or Brian Robison to rush the QB?

3. Kevin Williams, DT. The (second) big(-gest) man in the middle, K-dub could return to his great pass-rushing form of 2003-04 with Allen providing heat from the outside. He had 10.5 and 11.5 sacks each of his first two seasons with the team, but has only managed 12 sacks in the previous three seasons. He's extremely athletic for a man of his size, though, with four career interceptions and nine fumble recoveries in his career, and he's taken four of them to the house, including scores of 77 and 54 yards. Run, Kevin, run!

4. Bryant McKinnie, OT. While his loss may not be devastating, if indeed he is suspended by the league for his off-season exploits, McKinnie is, at the least, a very good left tackle, the type of which pretty much any QB would love to have protecting his blindside. And the alternatives are Artis Hicks and Marcus Johnson. Tarvaris Jackson doesn't need those kinds of things to worry about; he's got enough already.

5. E.J. Henderson, LB. Henderson cemented himself as the central figure of the defense, racking up 95 tackles last season and providing the backup should any team be somehow able to run past the Williams boys up the middle. He's shown a little bit of pass-rushing talent lately, too, with 4.5 sacks in 2007 and he'll be calling the plays for the defense in 2008.

6. Antoine Winfield, CB. While watching many a Vikings broadcast last year, the announcers would often bring up the sanguine question of "With those two mammoths up the middle, why don't teams run outside on the Vikings?" A few plays later, the opposing team would do just that, and there was the best-tackling cornerback in the NFL, stuffing the running back after a one-yard gain. Williams and Williams get a lot of credit for the Vikings' stifling run defense, but Winfield makes it so that teams can't just avoid those two and get results.

7. Steve Hutchinson, OG. While I think he was a bit overrated upon his arrival, and the team also "added" Matt Birk (who missed all of the 2005 season) to the offensive line in 2006, Hutch shone in 2007, helping his team average 5.3 yards per carry, and, like McKinnie, his potential replacements aren't that great. And just ask Shaun Alexander if he'd like to have Hutch back.

8. Pat Williams, DT. "Phat Pat" has been the immovable object in the center of the Vikings defense that has yet to meet an irresistable force. And it turns out he's a pretty good guy, too. Even if he does lie about his weight. If he's 317 pounds, so am I.

9. Bernard Berrian, WR. The only true deep threat in the Vikings passing game (depending on how well Sidney Rice shapes up), Berrian might not actually be that good, and he's likely overpaid, but he ranks this high due to the lack of quality options at the wide receiver position.

10. Madieu Williams, S. With Dwight Smith gone, the team needed to find a new safety and they found one in "Williams #3," plucking the coverage man from the Cincinnati Bengals. While his overall numbers might not seem that impressive, look at his passed deflected (PD) totals the last two years. His total of 20 beats out Smith (15) and Darren Sharper (17), and he missed three games in 2007. (Winfield, meanwhile, in missing six games in 2007, still leads the Vikings in PDs over the last two years, with 23.)

11. Matt Birk, C. Another lower-than-expected selection, I just see Birk as still very good but likely no longer elite, especially considering the other slabs of beef manning the offensive line. The Vikings are unlikely to sign him after this season and drafted a center in the late rounds of the draft. Plus, with Adrian Peterson, the team is more likely to run outside than it ever has in recent years, making the center position somewhat less valuable.

12. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. He had to be here somewhere, didn't he? T-Jack rides this high on the chart largely due to the complete lack of options the team has at the position. Gus Frerotte and Brooks Bollinger are dead weight, John David Booty is a rookie, and Kyle Wright was recently waived. Plus, as much as I've gotten on his case, he does have the potential to be at least an average, Trent-Dilfer-in-2000-type quarterback, and that's all his team needs right now.

13. Darren Sharper, S. Adding Madieu Williams should help ease some of the pressure that's been placed on Sharper the last few years, and the team drafted his likely replacement, Tyrell Johnson, with its top draft pick. The old man's still got an eye for the ball, though, notching four picks in 2007 and taking one to paydirt.

14. Chad Greenway, LB. Another key to the Vikings' strength against the outside run (along with Antoine Winfield) was Chad Greenway, who overcame a devastating knee injury that wiped out his rookie season to come back and finish third on the team in 2007 with 78 tackles and two interceptions (one returned for a TD).

15. Sidney Rice, WR. Rice figures to improve on his solid rookie numbers (31 catches, 396 yards, 4 TD) and could even surpass Bernard Berrian as the team's primary target by year's end. Plus, it just feels good having a wide receiver named "Rice" on the team, doesn't it?

16. Chris Kluwe, P. You knew I had to put him on the list somewhere, right? Let's face it: For a team that plans to rely on a grind-it-out running game and staunch defense, having a punter to limit the opponent's field position is key. Kluwe was 8th in the league in punting average in 2007 and only 21st in net average, but third in percentage of punts pinned down inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Few teams will be able to drive 80+ yards against the Vikings defense in 2008, I think.

17. Chester Taylor, RB. The yin to Adrian Peterson's yang -- or something like that -- Taylor stepped in admirably when Peterson wasn't available in 2007, and the team nearly had two 1,000-yard backs. With Mewelde Moore inexplicably let go, Taylor will face more of a burden of responsibility should anything happen to Peterson, and even if AP stays healthy all year, you could do a lot worse than insert Taylor for a series or two on offense each half.

18. Ben Leber, LB. The leading sacker among Vikings linebackers, Leber just always seems to be around the ball and making things happen. I know, I know, that sounds far too much like a David Eckstein-like "he plays the game the right way" comment, but I just like the guy and think he's underrated on a defensive unit that features much bigger stars.

19. Cedric Griffin, CB. Who led the Vikings in passes defended and was #2 on the team in tackles in 2007? The one guy in the secondary who most non-Vikings fans have never heard of, Cedric Griffin. So why does he rate so low? Because he was the perceived "weak link" in the Vikings' secondary all year, he was targeted an uncommon number of times, allowing him to rack up some impressive-looking numbers -- while also getting torched on more than one occasion. Still, trial by fire has likely made Griffin a better player and more will be expected of him in 2008.

20. Ryan Longwell, K. Sure, why not put a kicker at the bottom of the list? Longwell's been accurate and dependable in his two years in purple, and he finally got the team to stop looking Gary Anderson's way. And he's certainly gotten results, booting through 40 of 43 FGs from under 50 yards over the last two years after missing six such kicks in his last year in Green Bay. Sure, he's only 1-for-6 from 50 or more, but what else do you want from a soon-to-be 34-year-old kicker?