Showing posts with label JaredAllen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JaredAllen. Show all posts

Sunday, November 1, 2009

For the first time, Vikings celebrate Favre winning in Green Bay

Apart from a third quarter that had me swearing like George Carlin, the Vikings dominated the Packers in Lambeau Sunday, putting another lopsided number on the scoreboard in a 38-26 road victory that puts them at 7-1 going and in solid command of their division going into the bye. Brett Favre was nearly flawless, Percy Harvin had several big returns and a great TD catch-and-run, Adrian Peterson had just enough explosiveness in him to make a difference, and the defense...well, the less said about that third quarter, the better.

I figured going into the game that one of two things would happen: that Brett Favre would have an amazing performance and add to his improbable highlight reel that includes his Monday Night win after his father's death and his 6 TD game with the Jets last year; or that he would have an absolutely horrid performance -- at least three interceptions and possibly an injury, in a bit of karmic justice that would make Earl Hickey cringe. Fortunately, it was the former.

On the other side of the ball, the absence of Antoine Winfield can't fully explain the poor coverage, poorer tackling, and generally poor effort by what is rapidly becoming one of the more porous defenses in the league. We expect Benny Sapp and Karl Paymah to suck, but when Chad Greenway is missing tackles and Jared Allen hardly sniffs the quarterback for a whole half, something is wrong. And, while not a defensive play, let's pretend what Brian Robison did on that kickoff return never happened.

Against teams with a pulse (discounting Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis), the defense has given up 24, 23, 31, 13 (I'll discount those two return TDs in the Pittsburgh game), and 26 points. Elite defenses don't get routinely shredded by opposing quarterbacks, and right now -- and arguably, all season -- the Vikings have not had an elite defense. They have an exciting defense, one that picks up sacks in bunches and is pretty good at forcing turnovers, but that doesn't mean they're great. This unit definitely needs work during the bye week; Leslie Frazier's got his work cut out for him.

And I'll take a little time to gripe about the officiating again. On the play when the Vikings were called for roughing the quarterback, the defensive end was clearly held by the right tackle. So, not only was it a horrible call on the roughing, but also a horrible non-call on the holding. Even Troy Aikman, he of many concussions, thought the roughing call was lame. That should say something.

In the end, though, a win's a win, Green Bay has been swept, and the Vikings hold a commanding lead in their division. Even if the Packers beat the Bucs next week (likely), they'll be two games back for real and, thanks to the sweep, effectively three back. The Bears host the Cardinals next week, which is hardly a gimme, so they will be two (if they win) or three (if they lose) back after next week.

And the Vikings' next three opponents coming out of the bye? Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago, all at home. 3-0, or at least 2-1, over that run is highly probable. In fact, the Vikings don't even need to leave Minnesota again for over a month, not until a December 6 contest in Arizona. Home cooking sure tastes good when you're 7-1.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Play of the Day

Some people will tell you that the play of the game from yesterday's rout of the Rams was Jared Allen's fumble-recovery-TD. But astute fans who stuck around until the end know that the most improbable, the most unbelievable, the most "How on earth did that happen?" play was, in fact...

Naufahu Tahi's 32-yard catch and run in the late fourth quarter.

Let's put this into perspective. Going into Sunday's game, Tahi had a career 52 yards on 19 receptions, a stellar 2.7 yards per reception. With his 32-yard gain, his career numbers explode to 84 yards on 20 carries, with a Randy Moss-like 4.2 yards per catch!

I know that adding Brett Favre was supposed to help the passing game (and that it was actually Tarvaris Jackson who threw the pass to Tahi -- work with me here), but if his mere presence can even turn Naufahu Tahi into a receiving "threat," then the Vikings are nigh-unstoppable.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Now that's what I'm talking about!

When I lived in Wisconsin for three years, a fellow Vikings fan said to me, on a Monday morning in the office after the Vikings had beaten the Packers, "There's nothing I like to see more than sad Packer fans."

I don't know if Packer fans worldwide are more sad than they are enraged by their team's shoddy performance last night. Give credit to the Vikings pass rush, Jared Allen and his 4.5 sacks in particular, but no quarterback should be forced to spend time behind that purgatory of an offensive line. And any lingering Brett Favre fans in Packerland should have pretty much completely expunged whatever lingering love they had for #4 as he carved up the Packer secondary like...well, like he's carved up the Viking secondary for years.

Yes, I said it. I can grouse about Adrian Peterson's lousy 2.2 yards per carry (and fumble), or about the Vikings' letting the Packers back into the game late, or about Brad Childress's awe-inspiring new way to fail. (We didn't challenge because you couldn't get the red flag out of your pants?!? Are you actually an NFL head coach or just some guy the Wilfs found on the street outside the Metrodome?) But, apart from an interception that was overturned by a dubious pass interference call in the end zone, Brett Favre played a flawless game, completing 77.4 percent of his passes for 271 yards and three TDs, pump-faking the Green Bay defense to death while not taking a single sack. And he even threw passes consistently more than 6 yards downfield. Gee, this guy might actually have something left in the tank, at least in October. I'll have to reserve final judgment for January, though.

Admittedly, the Vikings got some help from the officials. In addition to that "pass interference" call, there were a few more that seemed almost suspiciously like some kind of "We have to make sure Favre wins" conspiracy by the NFL and ESPN. In total, the Packers were flagged for seven infractions while the Vikings, officially, only were hit with two yellow hankies, for a total of 10 yards. That said, when Jared Allen wasn't getting to Aaron Rodgers, especially on those final two Packer scoring drives, he was often egregiously held by the Packers' third-string left tackle, which was about the only way he could stop the man.

And how about that Sidney Rice? When we play pickup basketball, I want him on my team!

There were a few more flaws -- and some good plays -- in the Vikings' performance Monday night, but for now I'm happy to gloss over them and bask in the glow of a 4-0 team that's enjoying a two-game lead in its division and has a bye next week...

Wait, we play St. Louis? Same thing.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

The battles in the trenches

Lots and lots of lineman news coming out of Vikingland the past few days...

* The big news is that Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are very likely off the legal hook, at least in terms of their availability for 2009. Fuhrer Goodell is likely outraged at the outcome, but Viking fans are licking their chops at the likelihood of having the Williams Wall for all of 2009 -- until Pat Williams trips over himself in a mad rush to the buffet line.

* Jared Allen knows how to live. And he's totally rocking the NES Power Pad!

* I normally don't put much stock in off-season reports about how well a player looks in training camp or practices because everyone looks good in June, July, and August (even Troy Williamson), but I'm encouraged by this article about the (likely) new Vikings right tackle, Phil Loadholt (link thanks to Pacifist Viking). His real test will still come in pass protection against the league's elite defensive ends, but if he can at least be average this year, it'll still be a big step up from Ryan Cook.

* The other new Viking starting o-lineman, John Sullivan, looks to have already earned the starting center job. It sounds less impressive, though, when his only real competition was Ryan Cook.

* But hey, not everything about Ryan Cook is bad. In fact, here's proof:

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Williams' suspension likely to be upheld

In what seemed like an inevitability over the last few weeks, the NFL Players' Union lost its case against the makers of StarCaps, the dietary supplement that Pat Williams and Kevin Williams took that caused them to test positive for a banned substance last year. The ruling was delayed after a legal challenge, allowing the Williamses to finish out the 2008 season, but now the way is open for them to each face a four-game suspension in 2009.

I've already made my opinion on the subject known -- namely that the whole affair is more than a little shady -- and there's still a slim chance that the suspensions won't stick, but for now, Vikings fans are looking at the very real possibility that the Williams Wall won't suit up until nearly mid-October. The Vikings' early schedule, which previously looked rather soft, could now be a major obstacle for the team. If there's any consolation, it's that the four teams the Vikings face early -- Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and Green Bay -- all ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing last year, and only Green Bay could be considered "good" offensively, in general.

Still, even a poor team can look good when its opponent is missing one of its best defensive players. I'm referring, of course, to Kevin Williams, who's probably tied with Jared Allen for the best Viking defensive player. Pat Williams, as I've stated many times before, is overrated and one-dimensional. Yes, he's very good in that dimension (width -- er, I mean, stopping the run), but there are many other Vikings defenders I'd consider more valuable: Kevin Williams, Allen, Antoine Winfield, EJ Henderson, Chad Greenway, and maybe Madieu Williams and Cedric Griffin. A lot of people made a lot of noise when Pat Williams missed the last two games of the regular season last year and the Vikings gave up a lot of rushing yards against the Falcons and Giants. I merely pointed out that these were the #1 and #2 teams in rushing the ball for the entire season and that the Vikings held them to half a yard per carry under their season averages. Pat Williams is a lot of fun to watch, but he's in the middle of the pack when it comes to Vikings defensive players. Plus, if he returns for the fifth game of the season, he'll be just two weeks shy of his 37th birthday, so maybe the added "rest" wouldn't be the worst thing for him.

To be certain, this isn't the end of the world for the Vikings. The relatively soft schedule might allow the team to still come through with a 3-1 record and the one "tough" game, against Green Bay, is at the Metrodome. And maybe we won't even lose the Williamses, if a state judge still finds in favor of the players.

One thing I do know for sure, though: the makers of StarCaps are gonna get their pants sued off...

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

People less than enthused about Favre-to-Vikings

Me.

Jared Allen.

Chad Greenway.

Definitely this guy. Warning: Lots of profanity.

Most of the blogs to my right.

And here's a handy chart so you can keep track of the Brett Favre vs. Terrell Owens comparison.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Finally

It only took him six tries, but Brad Childress finally earned his first win over the Packers. And you know what? They didn't win because of the officials, or because the other team made a bonehead play or anything like that. The Vikings actually won a game with their offense and their defense and their coaching.

Their special teams? Well....that's still a work in progress. Or maybe just an unmitigated disaster.

On the bright side, it was nice that the Vikings weren't the only team with awful special teams plays. The Packers' Derek Blackmon retreating to field a punt inside his own 10 helped the Vikings get their first safety of the game. And when Mason Crosby lined up for a 52-yard field goal in the final minute to win the game, I just had a feeling it wasn't going to go. Doesn't mean I didn't jump up and cheer as it sailed wide right, mind you.

And who replaced Brad Childress's playbook with a book full of running plays? 40 called runs? 30 carries for Adrian Peterson (and 10 for Chester Taylor)? What have the aliens done with our coach? And can they keep him?

Gus Frerotte is still Gus Frerotte, which means he'll throw great TDs and frustrating interceptions, both in batches. I'm not sure if any other quarterback has ever had a game with five touchdowns and four interceptions, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Gus do that again some time this year. The Packers have a very good pass defense, so it wasn't surprising to see Gus struggle, throwing for 120 of his 151 yards to running backs and never hooking up with Bernard Berrian.

Jared Allen suddenly looks like he's worth the money, doesn't he? Another sack gives him eight on the season and he picked up his second safety of the year (after being credited for Dan Orlovsky's fun run a few weeks ago). And hey, how about Napoleon "the human missle" Harris? I say we send him flying over the middle on a blitz every single play. It would be better than watching him trying to cover a tight end.

No hardcore analysis in this post. I'm just basking in the glow of a long-awaited win over the Packers. Let's hope we don't have to wait three years for another one.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Vikings win, but Jackson nicked

OK, so it's not exactly the same as Tom Brady missing a game tonight with a foot injury or Peyton Manning's knee surgery. But Tarvaris Jackson going down with a knee injury in the first quarter of last night's 23-15 win over Baltimore still isn't good news, especially when the depth chart behind him consists of Gus Frerotte, Brooks Bollinger, and John David Booty. Fortunately, it doesn't look like the injury is anything serious and coach Brad Childress said that Jackson probably could have stayed in the game if it had been important.

Now, it comes as no surprise that I'm no huge Tarvaris Jackson fan. But over the last few weeks, I've been mildly impressed by his performance in the preseason and, given the alternatives at the quarterback position, admit that he's the best option under center for the Vikings in 2008. Can he quarterback the team to a Super Bowl, as some (like Dr. Z) are saying? That still remains to be seen, but I'd still feel a whole lot better with him out there than a 37-year-old quarterback who threw 12 interceptions in 167 attempts last year.

(In fact, I've become so enamored, so to speak, with Jackson's performance that I'm not sure how to vote in the poll I've put up on the right side. I could see arguments to vote for all three men.)

If you missed the game, like me, you can see video highlights of it at NFL.com. Jackson's injury comes at about the 1:40 mark. It's not particularly gruesome and definitely looks like a relatively minor incident, but you never know how these things turn out. At most, it might keep him out of the next preseason game, and, by the looks of it, he's the Vikings QB who needs the least amount of tune-up work. Here are the numbers for Vikings QBs through the first two preseason games:












CompAttYdsTDInt.Sacks
Jackson1522200200
Frerotte816129101
Bollinger81771001
Booty102191024


Jackson's passer rating through two games is an impressive 127.1, and while passer rating through two preseason games doesn't count for much, I'd rather have 127.1 than 27.1. Booty's definitely picking up the rear (ha!), and had a bad interception in last night's game that went the other way for six, but I'd still bet on him taking the #3 job away from Bollinger.

The defense also performed significantly better this week as compared to last, giving up 182 fewer yards (419 to 237) and notching five sacks and two interceptions, after scoring zero in both categories against Seattle. Jared Allen had two of the five Viking sacks, a nice sign even if it did come against the less-than-stellar Baltimore offense.

A cause for some concern, though, apart from Jackson's injury, is the relatively poor play of the running game. The Vikings "big two" of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor have managed just 60 yards on 18 carries through two games (a 3.3 average). I do worry that last year's great running game was fueled by a near-flukish performance by the offensive line and that the team could be in for a bit of a disappointment in that category this year. It won't get any easier next week against the typically tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense, but at least the game will be nationally televised on CBS, giving me (and the rest of you) no excuse not to watch.

Still, the regular season can't get here soon enough....

Friday, August 1, 2008

Vikings are raiders in free agency

It's hardly news to say that the Minnesota Vikings have been active in free agency this offseason. With free agents Bernard Berrian, Madieu Williams, and Thomas Tapeh and trade acquisition Jared Allen all wearing purple this year, the Vikings have made a bold statement that they plan to win not just now, but for years to come.

It was a little surprising to me, though, to see just how active the Vikings were in free agency this spring and summer and how much they raided other teams' rosters for their free agents, compared to other teams. Using ESPN's free agency tracker, I found out how many players each team signed and how many of those players came from other organizations:





































TeamOwnFAOtherFATotalFA%Other
NY Jets066100%
Miami2121486%
Minnesota291182%
Tampa Bay4101471%
Seattle371070%
San Francisco471164%
Philadelphia35863%
Denver581362%
Tennessee571258%
Kansas City34757%
Oakland681457%
Atlanta791656%
St. Louis561155%
Carolina9101953%
New England771450%
Buffalo54944%
Jacksonville54944%
Houston971644%
Detroit861443%
NY Giants43743%
Chicago32540%
New Orleans961540%
Cleveland741136%
Arizona1261833%
Baltimore42633%
Cincinnati63933%
Green Bay21333%
Pittsburgh831127%
Dallas31425%
San Diego31425%
Washington61714%
Indianapolis4040%


As you can see, the Minnesota Vikings got 82% of their free agents -- the third-highest figure in the league -- from other teams. Their total of nine free agents gained from other teams ranks fourth, behind only Miami, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. Obviously, this chart doesn't take rookie free agents, draft picks, and trades into account, but it does seem to confirm that the Vikings took a head-first dive into free agency this offseason, picking the best (or so we hope) from other teams' rosters and making them their own. Toss in the Jared Allen deal, which, even with the Adam Jones and Jason Taylor deals and the looming possibility of a Brett Favre trade, looks to be the most impactful long-term deal of the 2008 offseason, and it's hard not to say that the Vikings made the most noise, by far, in the offseason.

Now the question remains, will all that activity lead to success on the field? The Vikings have been far from quiet in free agency over the last several years, with Antoine Winfield, Fred Smoot, Darren Sharper, and Steve Hutchinson all moving north in recent years in big-time free-agent deals. Despite the loose purse strings, the team hasn't fared better than 9-7 under its last two head coaches and has only one playoff berth this decade. Many fans -- myself among them -- seem to think that this offseason spending spree will lead to bigger things for the team in the upcoming season, but until that success comes, there will always be the niggling shadow of doubt in the minds of Vikings' fans, harking back to the team's many missed opportunities over the team's first 47 seasons.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Top 20 Minnesota Vikings

Everybody loves a list! Therefore, I present to you, in the spirit of "still too long until training camp begins and we need something to talk about," the top 20 current and most valuable Minnesota Vikings. That means that, for each one, you have to ask, "What would be the damage to the team if we lost that player?" and not simply a question of whether he's a better player than the one ranked underneath him. Some consideration should also be given to a player's age and how likely it is that the team will need to replace him in the near future anyway.

As a result, my #1 pick may come as a bit of a surprise to most...

1. Jared Allen, DE. This is a definite case of looking at how Allen will likely improve the team and what the options are if he misses time. Ray Edwards and Brian Robison are OK, but Allen is an absolute beast of a pass rusher who's also very good against the run. His presence will make the rest of the defensive line and, by extension, the rest of the defense a top-notch unit.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB. He's the most electrifying player on the team and the best bet to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. The only reason I bump him down to #2 is the presence of Chester Taylor and the great skill of the offensive line, which allowed three backs last year to average better than 5.0 yards per carry. It's a tough call, and he's amazing to watch, but think about it, really -- would you rather have to rely on Chester Taylor to run the ball or Brian Robison to rush the QB?

3. Kevin Williams, DT. The (second) big(-gest) man in the middle, K-dub could return to his great pass-rushing form of 2003-04 with Allen providing heat from the outside. He had 10.5 and 11.5 sacks each of his first two seasons with the team, but has only managed 12 sacks in the previous three seasons. He's extremely athletic for a man of his size, though, with four career interceptions and nine fumble recoveries in his career, and he's taken four of them to the house, including scores of 77 and 54 yards. Run, Kevin, run!

4. Bryant McKinnie, OT. While his loss may not be devastating, if indeed he is suspended by the league for his off-season exploits, McKinnie is, at the least, a very good left tackle, the type of which pretty much any QB would love to have protecting his blindside. And the alternatives are Artis Hicks and Marcus Johnson. Tarvaris Jackson doesn't need those kinds of things to worry about; he's got enough already.

5. E.J. Henderson, LB. Henderson cemented himself as the central figure of the defense, racking up 95 tackles last season and providing the backup should any team be somehow able to run past the Williams boys up the middle. He's shown a little bit of pass-rushing talent lately, too, with 4.5 sacks in 2007 and he'll be calling the plays for the defense in 2008.

6. Antoine Winfield, CB. While watching many a Vikings broadcast last year, the announcers would often bring up the sanguine question of "With those two mammoths up the middle, why don't teams run outside on the Vikings?" A few plays later, the opposing team would do just that, and there was the best-tackling cornerback in the NFL, stuffing the running back after a one-yard gain. Williams and Williams get a lot of credit for the Vikings' stifling run defense, but Winfield makes it so that teams can't just avoid those two and get results.

7. Steve Hutchinson, OG. While I think he was a bit overrated upon his arrival, and the team also "added" Matt Birk (who missed all of the 2005 season) to the offensive line in 2006, Hutch shone in 2007, helping his team average 5.3 yards per carry, and, like McKinnie, his potential replacements aren't that great. And just ask Shaun Alexander if he'd like to have Hutch back.

8. Pat Williams, DT. "Phat Pat" has been the immovable object in the center of the Vikings defense that has yet to meet an irresistable force. And it turns out he's a pretty good guy, too. Even if he does lie about his weight. If he's 317 pounds, so am I.

9. Bernard Berrian, WR. The only true deep threat in the Vikings passing game (depending on how well Sidney Rice shapes up), Berrian might not actually be that good, and he's likely overpaid, but he ranks this high due to the lack of quality options at the wide receiver position.

10. Madieu Williams, S. With Dwight Smith gone, the team needed to find a new safety and they found one in "Williams #3," plucking the coverage man from the Cincinnati Bengals. While his overall numbers might not seem that impressive, look at his passed deflected (PD) totals the last two years. His total of 20 beats out Smith (15) and Darren Sharper (17), and he missed three games in 2007. (Winfield, meanwhile, in missing six games in 2007, still leads the Vikings in PDs over the last two years, with 23.)

11. Matt Birk, C. Another lower-than-expected selection, I just see Birk as still very good but likely no longer elite, especially considering the other slabs of beef manning the offensive line. The Vikings are unlikely to sign him after this season and drafted a center in the late rounds of the draft. Plus, with Adrian Peterson, the team is more likely to run outside than it ever has in recent years, making the center position somewhat less valuable.

12. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. He had to be here somewhere, didn't he? T-Jack rides this high on the chart largely due to the complete lack of options the team has at the position. Gus Frerotte and Brooks Bollinger are dead weight, John David Booty is a rookie, and Kyle Wright was recently waived. Plus, as much as I've gotten on his case, he does have the potential to be at least an average, Trent-Dilfer-in-2000-type quarterback, and that's all his team needs right now.

13. Darren Sharper, S. Adding Madieu Williams should help ease some of the pressure that's been placed on Sharper the last few years, and the team drafted his likely replacement, Tyrell Johnson, with its top draft pick. The old man's still got an eye for the ball, though, notching four picks in 2007 and taking one to paydirt.

14. Chad Greenway, LB. Another key to the Vikings' strength against the outside run (along with Antoine Winfield) was Chad Greenway, who overcame a devastating knee injury that wiped out his rookie season to come back and finish third on the team in 2007 with 78 tackles and two interceptions (one returned for a TD).

15. Sidney Rice, WR. Rice figures to improve on his solid rookie numbers (31 catches, 396 yards, 4 TD) and could even surpass Bernard Berrian as the team's primary target by year's end. Plus, it just feels good having a wide receiver named "Rice" on the team, doesn't it?

16. Chris Kluwe, P. You knew I had to put him on the list somewhere, right? Let's face it: For a team that plans to rely on a grind-it-out running game and staunch defense, having a punter to limit the opponent's field position is key. Kluwe was 8th in the league in punting average in 2007 and only 21st in net average, but third in percentage of punts pinned down inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Few teams will be able to drive 80+ yards against the Vikings defense in 2008, I think.

17. Chester Taylor, RB. The yin to Adrian Peterson's yang -- or something like that -- Taylor stepped in admirably when Peterson wasn't available in 2007, and the team nearly had two 1,000-yard backs. With Mewelde Moore inexplicably let go, Taylor will face more of a burden of responsibility should anything happen to Peterson, and even if AP stays healthy all year, you could do a lot worse than insert Taylor for a series or two on offense each half.

18. Ben Leber, LB. The leading sacker among Vikings linebackers, Leber just always seems to be around the ball and making things happen. I know, I know, that sounds far too much like a David Eckstein-like "he plays the game the right way" comment, but I just like the guy and think he's underrated on a defensive unit that features much bigger stars.

19. Cedric Griffin, CB. Who led the Vikings in passes defended and was #2 on the team in tackles in 2007? The one guy in the secondary who most non-Vikings fans have never heard of, Cedric Griffin. So why does he rate so low? Because he was the perceived "weak link" in the Vikings' secondary all year, he was targeted an uncommon number of times, allowing him to rack up some impressive-looking numbers -- while also getting torched on more than one occasion. Still, trial by fire has likely made Griffin a better player and more will be expected of him in 2008.

20. Ryan Longwell, K. Sure, why not put a kicker at the bottom of the list? Longwell's been accurate and dependable in his two years in purple, and he finally got the team to stop looking Gary Anderson's way. And he's certainly gotten results, booting through 40 of 43 FGs from under 50 yards over the last two years after missing six such kicks in his last year in Green Bay. Sure, he's only 1-for-6 from 50 or more, but what else do you want from a soon-to-be 34-year-old kicker?

Thursday, July 3, 2008

The people have spoken (and other tidbits)

ESPN.com is running a poll that asks the question, "Do you want Brett Favre to come back?" It's been running since at least last night, and there are over 25,000 responses as of now (3 p.m. Eastern on Thursday).

The response is currently 59% "no" and 41% "yes," which is really amazing when you think about it. About 2/5 of all voters want to see the man play again. It's inconceivable that all of those are Packer fans -- given that just under 2,000 of the votes come from Wisconsin -- that means that somewhere around a third of NFL fans who have no particular love for the green-and-gold want to see #4 suit up again. Now, maybe they want him to suit up for their team, which is, I think, at least a mild possibility.

Only 5 of the 51 regions (50 states + international) have a better than 50% "yes" vote, Wisconsin naturally on top with a 68% vote -- though that means that nearly a third of Wisconsinites (and they can't all be displaced Bears, Lions, and Vikings fans, as I was for three years) would rather see Favre stay on the sidelines. Nebraska (54%), Arkansas (52%), West Virginia (51%), and Mississippi (51%) are the other pro-Favre states.

Strangely, Minnesota (34%) isn't the #1 anti-Favre state; that honor goes to Vermont (22%), with an admittedly paltry 27 votes so far (839 for Minnesota). Among states with a significant number of votes, Massachusetts (29%, 680 votes) seems to be the most decidedly anti-Favre state out there. Maybe they don't like anyone sharing the spotlight with their precious Tom Brady?

Finally, California only registers a 36% pro-Favre stance, even though one California resident is probably stuffing the ballot box as fast as his computer will reload the page.

* Poor Chris Snyder. The Arizona Diamondbacks catcher just went on the DL with an injury too horrible for words. He suffered a left ______ fracture in Monday's game against Milwaukee. If you think the blank should be filled with something mundane like "tibia" or "elbow," well, Chris should be so lucky. And I thought Kaz Matsui's anal fissures would be the worst baseball injury of the year.

* It's two weeks old, but ESPN.com posted its fantasy football offensive line rankings back on June 18. Good to see the Vikings at #3, and the list confirms what I came up with using my own system back in February that said Cleveland had a really, really good O-line. The only major difference between my rankings and ESPN's are the Jets (#31 for me, #13 for them), though ESPN admits that the Jets were "awful last year, but to their credit, they were extremely aggressive in upgrading this group." Nice to see some of my wacky statistical research having relevance in the real world, especially after what I did earlier this week.

* How good are the Twins playing this year? Not that well, apparently, if they could make an out on a 4-2 count. Whoops.

* Remember when SI.com's Dr. Z predicted that the Vikings would win the Super Bowl? Seems that a few people disagree with his opinion. One person points out that, considering their deficiencies both with and against the pass, they would be better off playing outdoors. Might be true, but here's one stat to get you thinking about the potential good times ahead:

Jared Allen on grass: 33.0 sacks in 53 games (0.62 per game)

Jared Allen on turf: 10.0 sacks in 7 games (1.43 per game)

I'll stop drooling now.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Dry and dry again: Jared Allen


Almost as common as the "Bernard Berrian couldn't catch a cold even if the Vikings played outdoors in December" talk that's gone on since the Vikings signed the receiver has been the dire predictions of what will happen if the team's other major off-season acquisition, Jared Allen, "falls off the wagon." Allen, you'll recall (and how could you forget?) was suspended four games (later reduced to two) in 2007 for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy after being arrested for a DUI in 2006. If he violates the league policy again, he could be slammed with a full-season suspension, and that likely played some part in the Kansas City Chiefs' willingness to let go of last year's NFL sacks leader.

Truthfully, I didn't know much about Allen prior to his eight-tackle, two-sack game against the Vikings in 2007, his first game back after serving his suspension. Since rumors of a trade surfaced in mid-April, I've dug into his history a little more, to get an idea of his future. Every story I've read paints him as a guy who partied hard right out of college, made some mistakes, and has now cleaned up his act.

Great. That's what Koren Robinson said, too. And we know how that turned out.

But Allen seems different. Yeah, I know, there's some homer-ness to that, since he's one of "our guys" now. And, unless his drinking habits led to a tragedy, stories about him are going to be of an unfailingly positive nature. I really believed Allen had turned the corner, but I always thought there was at least some small, fraction-of-one-percent chance he might surrender once again to his demons and, like too many athletes who had come before him, wreck what should be an outstanding career.

Then I read Jeffri Chadiha's piece about Allen for ESPN The Magazine. And that fraction of a percent has evaporated to zero.

Most encouraging is Allen acknowledging that his going out to bars was due to a belief in the notion that he had to cultivate an image of a wild and crazy "party guy" to fit in with teammates and, he admits, "I was single and wanted to meet chicks." Since his arrest and suspension -- he's been dry since the arrest, 20 months and counting -- he "vanished from the nightlife" and has matured considerably: "Not drinking was part of my growth as a man." In essence, he sounds like someone who drank and partied to appear cool and attract the chicks, so to speak, and no longer needs that sort of stimulus to live a happy life.

And that's the difference between Allen and Koren Robinson. Robinson spouted all the usual platitudes about how he'd turned a new leaf and didn't need alcohol anymore, and so on, but I never got a sense of the underlying reason of why he would quit drinking. With Allen, it seems a very logical procession: He wanted to look cool and establish himself as a youngster, so he drank. Now, he is a well-established star, one of the highest-paid players in the NFL, and a focal point for his team's upcoming season. Why would he need alcohol? He's already got everything. I realize I'm no expert on the insidious nature of alcohol addiction, but it seems to me that Allen's achieved everything he wanted -- though it doesn't look like he's found that "chick" yet -- so why would he need alcohol? Yes, there's the case of Koren Robinson again, but he was still a marginal NFL player. Allen's far above "marginal," and looks to be smart enough to realize that alcohol will only bring him down, not prop him up.

There's also a little bit of on-the-field good news tucked away in the article. Take a look at this sentence:

By summer 2007, Allen had dropped 20 pounds, from 280 to 260, and reported to Chiefs camp in the best shape of his life.


Allen averaged about 9.0 sacks per season his first three years in the league before exploding for 15.5 in 2007. If his giving up drinking and re-dedicating himself to football led to that kind of improvement, maybe he can sustain that level of play for 2008 and beyond -- or even improve upon it.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Various Viking Verbage

Brooks Bollinger looks to be the odd man out in Vikings mini-camp, as he competes for reps with four other quarterbacks. As much as I've harangued Tarvaris Jackson, there's no doubt that, if I had to start a game right now with the quarterbacks the Vikings have in camp (Jackson, Bollinger, Gus Frerotte, John David Booty, and Kyle Wright), he'd be my choice. Looking at the competition, that's not saying much, though.

It's a near-foregone conclusion that the three QBs on the Vikings' roster come September will be Jackson (the incumbent), Frerotte (the semi-wily veteran), and Booty (the new kid), so Bollinger and Wright should keep a moving van on speed-dial.

* "Even with an 8-4 record as the starter last year, Jackson knows the doubters are out there." Really? Where? To his credit, Jackson takes it in stride and doesn't seem to buy in to his own hype:

"People are going to say what they want to say. It's their job to analyze things and to give their opinion of our team. My job is to go out there and prove them wrong. That's how I look at it. It's just extra motivation. That's all it is. Things like that kind of help me out, get me over the top."

Personally, I think "If I don't play well in 2008, I could be unemployed" should be enough of a motivation, but hey, go with what you can.

* The Vikings apparently have a contingency plan if Bryant McKinnie is suspended for the first part (or more) of the 2008 season, and his name is Chase Johnson. An undrafted, second-year player wouldn't normally gain much notice, except that, at 6'8" and 330 pounds, it's hard to miss Johnson. That makes him a near-clone of McKinnie, who's listed at 6'8" and 335 pounds, and nobody else is taller, with Artis Hicks being the only other Viking listed over 330 (335). Remember, kids, Pat Williams only weighs 317 *snort*

* In June, every team had a great offseason, every running back will run for 2,000 yards, every quarterback will throw for 30 touchdowns, and every team will go to the Super Bowl. Jared Allen made the claim for the Vikings recently and, while I think they've got about as good a chance as any team in the NFC, save Dallas, such talk from someone who's been with the team for less than two months makes me nervous.

(On the other hand, if I were a professional athlete, I'd tell every reporter before every game that I guarantee a win. Because that's what we're going out there to do. If we didn't think we'd win every game, why play?)

* Troy Williamson got the usual glowing "former first-round pick looking for a fresh start" article that all such players get when they wash out with their first team and join a new one (Koren Robinson got the same treatment in Minnesota).

"I'd say it was very important because it was getting very intense up there as far as me and the head coach and some of the other coaches," Williamson said. "I feel like I just need to play football, be me and be comfortable in the situation."
Yes, how dare the coaches up in Minnesota make things so intense by asking you to catch the ball. It's not like that was your job or anything.

* Finally, I've started reading The Daily Norseman, a good-looking Vikings site with lots of good material. In fact, it's better than this site, so I'll have to resort to some solid journalistic techniques and hard-hitting content to draw more readers.

Or I can just post a picture of a scantily clad Sarah Michelle Gellar:


Admit it, you like that better than more Tarvaris Jackson talk, right?

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Vikings waive Erasmus James

Erasmus James was waived by the Vikings Friday after he failed a physical, putting an end to his oft-injured career in purple. I've got a rather unusual perspective on James, having lived in Wisconsin during his college days at U-Dub and seeing him wreak havoc on Big 10 backfields for several years in Madison, including a senior season that saw him rack up 8 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss while leading the Badger defense to a second-best-in-conference 15.4 points per game. I was excited to see the team draft him with its #1 pick in 2005 and hoped that he'd provide that pass rush from the defensive end spot the team had been lacking for years.

Fast forward three years, and the Vikings are still looking for that pass-rushing defensive end (which they may have finally found in Jared Allen). In those three years, James has appeared in just 23 of a possible 48 games, accumulating just 30 tackles and 5.0 sacks. He played in 15 of 16 games as a rookie, but has since missed 24 of 32 games with injuries, leaving the team with little choice but to waive the unreliable defensive end.

While failing his physical may be a clear sign that James cannot overcome his injuries and play at an acceptable level, it would have been nice if the team could have found some way to keep him around, even just as a part-time player. As good as the Vikings' defensive line could be this year -- with Allen, Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and Brian Robison/Ray Edwards -- the unit's depth has been decimated in the off-season. Kenichi Udeze will sit out the year while battling his leukemia. Darrion Scott was released (and subsequently arrested). Spencer Johnson signed a free-agent contract with the Bills. And now James is out of the picture. The team had better hope for stellar performances from its top players along the line, because the likes of Otis Grigsby, Kenderick Allen, Fred Evans, Jayme Mitchell, and Ellis Wyms don't exactly strike fear into the hearts of offensive linemen.

It's likely that some team will take a shot at James, considering his youth and his standout performances in college. If he can pass a physical, he might find a team willing to take a low-cost chance on a possible third-down rush specialist. That's probably about all he can hope for at this stage of his career, and I wish him luck.

Monday, May 12, 2008

Jared Allen, Pet Neshek, Jon Kitna...and a porn star?

* For those still concerned about the possibility of Jared Allen being suspended for a whole season if he fails another drug test/has another DUI, don't be. Not only is the press about him positive, but SI.com reports that, if he stays out of trouble until September, Allen's previous failures will be wiped off the record, giving him a clean slate and a fresh start. Considering that his original four-game suspension in 2007 was reduced to two games, it seems that the NFL front office already has a history of being lenient with Allen, who's seemed contrite enough about his early mistakes. Adam Jones could learn a thing or two.

* During the draft -- while Green Bay was selecting Brian Brohm, I believe -- one of the analysts on ESPN commented that, with Brett Favre's retirement and the uncertainty at quarterback for most of the teams in the division, Jon Kitna was "clearly" the best quarterback in the division.

This didn't sit well with me. Kitna has put up some decent-looking numbers, throwing for over 4,000 yards each of his two seasons with the Lions, but that's been due to the Lions' ineptness at the running game. It's the same reason the Vikings' pass defense looks worse than it is -- because teams never run on them. With those 4,000-yard seasons have come more interceptions than TDs each year, 28 fumbles, and a league-leading 114 sacks.

Now, I'm no fan of Tarvaris Jackson, but let's compare the two. Kitna had 561 pass attempts in 2007, compared to Jackson's 294 -- nearly double. Counting sacks among dropbacks, we come up with 612 for Kitna and 311 for Jackson, an even closer match. In fact, let's double Jackson's numbers to put him more in line with Kitna. Here are the results:







PlayerCompAttYdsTDIntSackSackYdsRushYds
Kitna355561406818205132063
Jackson x23425883822182438140520


For 2008, Kitna's passer rating was 80.9, compared to Jackson's 70.8, so he wins that round. But if you take Jackson's mobility (fewer sacks and better rushing numbers) into account, it's a lot closer (and my Total Yards per Attempt statistic does just that, and ranks Jackson as slightly better, overall, than Kitna). Neither one of them are Brett Favre, but at the very least, you couldn't call either of those quarterbacks clearly "better" than the other.

* Sad news about Twins relief pitcher/blogger Pat Neshek, who suffered a partial ligament tear in his elbow and is likely done for the season. On the one hand, many will blame Neshek's funky delivery for his developing elbow problems. Me? I think it came from ripping open too many baseball card packs.

* And, to close on a lighter note...Candy Cummings: porn star or Hall of Fame baseball player?

Thursday, May 8, 2008

What to expect from Jared Allen

It's not every day your team acquires the NFL's leader in any significant statistic the previous season. Being very good, such players usually aren't available, and when they are, they command top dollar, as Jared Allen did in his trade-and-sign deal that netted him a potential $72 million over 6 years.

That said, big-money deals for players who sometimes enjoyed career years often go south when the fans of the player's new team turn on him for not performing the same way he did just prior to the signing. That's just the law of averages at work; rarely does a player lead the league in the same category multiple years in a row, whether due to injury, age, ineffectiveness, or just luck (good in his pre-signing year or bad in his post-signing years). Will Viking fans think Allen a bust if he doesn't notch at least 15 sacks in 2008? Or 18? Is it even realistic to think that way?

Jared Allen led the NFL with 15.5 sacks in 2007. That makes him the 22nd player in 26 years to lead the league in that category since sacks became an official stat in 1982. Only Reggie White and Mark Gastineau have ever captured back-to-back sack titles. Chances are, Allen won't do it again, since his previous three years' sack totals are 9.0, 11.0, and 7.5 -- solid numbers all, but not what you're looking for from the league's most expensive defensive end.

On the other hand, Allen is young; he was 25 in 2007 and turned 26 just last month. Only 6 of those 28 sack leaders were 25 or younger, and most still had (or, in the case of Shawne Merriman and Dwight Freeney, should have) several good years ahead of them. Comparing Allen to 27-year-old Derrick Burgess or 30-year-old John Randle probably won't paint us an accurate assessment of his future. In fact, looking at sack leaders alone is probably not a wise choice in general, since Allen wouldn't be any less talented if, say, some other player had notched 16.0 sacks in 2007.

Instead, we'll look at two factors: Allen's sack total and his age. 17 players have racked up 15 or more sacks at or before the age of 25, including Allen. In the chart below, I've tracked their sacks in their "15" season (Year N), along with their sack totals in each of the next three seasons (Years N+1, N+2, and N+3):























PlayerAgeSeasonYear NYear N+1Year N+2Year N+3
D. Thomas2319902013.514.58
T. Harris25198919.57317
A. Tippett25198418.516.59.512.5
R. White25198618211811
R. Dent24198417.51711.512.5
S. Merriman2220061712.5







R. Dent2519851711.512.510.5
S. Rice25199916.57.51115.5
P. Swilling25198916.5111710.5
D. Freeney24200416115.53.5
J. Allen25200715.5











C. Simmons25198915.57.51319
S. Jones24198615.567.56
L. Marshall24198515.51288
B. Smith23198615121113
L. Williams2419861581114
M. Merriweather24198415465.5
Average







16.711.110.611.1


Of the 16 non-Allen players who managed 15 or more sacks in a season, all but one -- the great Reggie White -- had fewer sacks the year after their big season. 6 experienced a drop-off of 0.5 to 5.0 sacks, and 9 lost more than 5.0 sacks from their totals. Not very encouraging, all things considered.

On the other hand, even the players who lost more than 5.0 sacks probably wouldn't be considered total "busts," if they'd signed free-agent deals after their big seasons. Derrick Thomas certainly wasn't a bust, by any stretch. Tim Harris had 13.5 and 19.5 sacks in back-to-back years before his plunge, but he still rebounded nicely a few years later. Richard Dent still managed double-digit sacks for 6 of his next 8 seasons. Clyde Simmons and Lee Williams were fine after one-year drop-offs. Only Mike Merriweather and Sean Jones might be considered absolute flukes (though Jones did have a few nice seasons later in his career), and Dwight Freeney still has a chance to cement himself as a great modern pass-rusher.

Even with the flukes and busts taken into account, 15-sack men averaged about 11 sacks a year over their next three seasons. Considering how much the Vikings have lacked a consistent pass rush this decade (with only Kevin Williams and Lance Johnstone notching double-digit sacks), I think most fans should be happy with 10-12 sacks each year from Allen. I know I will. There seems to be little chance of his improving on that total -- of the 46 post-Year N seasons above, only 4 resulted in a higher sack total, and two of those were by Reggie White.

Then again, playing Jon Kitna twice a season can do wonders for one's sack totals.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Jared Allen a safe bet; Vikes not so much

I just flew in from Las Vegas, and boy are my arms (and the rest of me, considering I took a 1 a.m. red-eye) tired...

I've already spoken at length about what I think of Jared Allen. As for the deal he got and what the Vikings gave up to get him, I approve. He's at least as good as any player we would have received with our first-round pick, and the team's last nine third-round picks have been likes of Marcus McCauley, Dustin Fox, Darrion Scott, Nate Burleson, Willie Offord, Eric Kelly, Doug Chapman, Ramos McDonald, and Stalin Colinet. You have to go back to Moe Williams in 1996 to find anything even remotely resembling a regular contributor, and he was hardly irreplaceable. As for the money -- $31 million guaranteed and up to $74 million including incentives -- I have faith in cap guru Rob Brzezinski, who's always engineered the system to keep the Vikings well under the cap and in great shape each off-season. It might be that the Vikings don't go after anyone significant in 2009, but with Allen, Madieu Williams, and Bernard Berrian coming on in 2008, I think I could live with a quiet year.

But enough of the serious talk. Now, here's the story of the serendipitous moment when I learned of the Allen trade and what I did about it.

As mentioned, I was in Las Vegas the last two days, attending the GAMA Trade Show. It's a show about games, but don't worry, it's very, very boring. Around when the day was wrapping up, I wandered, footsore, to the sports book at the Paris casino to rest for a bit before seeking dinner. A few baseball games were on the big screens, and I had a mini-TV at my seat where I put on Pardon the Interruption, without sound.

As the show wrapped, Tony and Mike did their "Happies," and in this case the scroll along the bottom said "Happy Trails to Jared Allen." I couldn't hear what they were saying, but I thought it could mean only one thing. My eyes darted from baseball game to baseball game, looking for some sort of sports news scroll along the bottom and, sure enough, about a minute later, I saw the official announcement of the Allen-to-the-Vikings deal.

The previous night, I'd checked out the futures bets for the Super Bowl Championship. New England, I believe, topped the odds list at 9-5, with Indy and Dallas next at 3-1 and 4-1 respectively. The Vikings were given 10-1 odds, a bit high, I thought (and the same odds as Cleveland, of all teams). Among the rest of the NFC North, the Packers and Bears each rated 15-1 odds -- way higher than I'd ever rank the Bears -- and Detroit was at 60-1 odds, better only than three other teams.

So, as I learned of the Allen deal, I glanced back at the big screen with the NFL futures odds. Minnesota hadn't changed; still 10-1. I could have seen it going up a point or two, maybe up to 8-1, once the Allen deal was better known, and hey, when you learn of your favorite team making a major trade while sitting in the sports book of a casino in Las Vegas -- well, that's a call to action if I ever saw one.

So I put $10 down on the Vikings. It'll pay $110 if they win the Super Bowl. A friend of mine, a Steelers fan, says he has a rule: He never bets on the Steelers. Hard to argue with the Steelers' track record, so maybe he's on to something. Then again, I've never bet on the Vikings and they've won exactly zero championships. So maybe I'm on to something, too; maybe the Vikings will only win if I bet on them! At the very least, they've never won when I didn't bet on them, so the opposite might be true, right? (I know there's some high-school level logic that points out the fallacy in that reason, but I don't want to hear it.) Here's hoping.

Friday, April 18, 2008

The Jared Allen watch

The Kansas City Chiefs have begun talks to trade their franchise player, defensive end Jared Allen, and the Minnesota Vikings appear to be one of the interested parties. Allen has scheduled visits to both the Vikings and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the draft, and the Vikings, with more and better draft picks than the Bucs -- the likely compensation for Allen -- appear to be the front-runner.

To which I have to say: Excellent!

Allen is one of the premiere talents at his position, and a rising star in the league. He led the NFL in sacks last year, with 15.5, though playing on a 4-12 team limited his exposure. He's only just turned 26 and has averaged nearly 11 sacks per season in each of his four pro seasons while also averaging about 60 tackles a year each of the last three seasons -- a high number for a defensive end -- and forcing 14 (or 13, depending on what stat page you look at) fumbles. He's missed just three games in those four years, including two this year for...

...uh oh. A substance-abuse suspension. Danger, Will Robinson?

I think not. After his tussle with the law over a DUI, Allen has stated that he's "learned his lesson" and apparently even convinced Commissioner Roger Goodell, who reduced Allen's four-game suspension to start the season by two games. All things considered, Vikings fans probably would have preferred that Allen's suspension remained at four games, as his first game back in 2007 was against the Vikings, where he racked up eight tackles and teed off on the statue-like Kelly Holcomb twice for sacks and was a major factor in the Chiefs' 13-10 victory.

Assuming that Allen's troubles with the law are behind him, and I tend to think they are, he would be a great fit for the Vikings. Only 26 years old, his best years may still be ahead of him, and, after losing out on free agents Justin Smith and Antwan Odom, the Vikings are probably ready to offer the moon to sign Allen. As the Chiefs' franchise player, Allen is due about $9 million this year, but a long-term deal would probably be front-loaded, as they often are, so as to minimize the later cap hit. The Vikings were $32 million under the cap when free agency began, and the Vikings probably still have about $15-20 million left -- more than enough to sign Allen to a long-term deal, especially if they don't have to pay for a first-round pick.

Ah yes, there is that part: The Chiefs will likely want at least a first-round pick for Allen, and probably also another, later pick and/or players as compensation. Seeing as how the Vikings have two third-round picks, a first- and third-rounder would seem like the starting point for a negotiation, and if that's all it takes to land Allen, I'd consider it a fair deal. Assuming the team is targeting a defensive end in the draft -- probably Derrick Harvey or Philip Merling -- landing Allen would preclude any need to draft a defensive end this year. Plus, who would you rather have on your team: a fairly young, proven, possibly elite NFL player or a rookie whose never played a down in the NFL? If that's the choice, I'd up the bidding to three players/picks, if that's what it takes to snare Allen. Hey, maybe the Chiefs will even throw Tyler Thigpen back to us. He has to be a better backup QB than Gus Frerotte.

You don't often get the chance to land a player the caliber of Jared Allen, especially for the potentially low price of two draft picks. If this works out -- and we should know by the time of the draft -- then the failure to acquire another defensive end earlier in free agency might have actually worked to the Vikings' advantage. Let's hope so.