Showing posts with label KevinWilliams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KevinWilliams. Show all posts

Thursday, August 6, 2009

The battles in the trenches

Lots and lots of lineman news coming out of Vikingland the past few days...

* The big news is that Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are very likely off the legal hook, at least in terms of their availability for 2009. Fuhrer Goodell is likely outraged at the outcome, but Viking fans are licking their chops at the likelihood of having the Williams Wall for all of 2009 -- until Pat Williams trips over himself in a mad rush to the buffet line.

* Jared Allen knows how to live. And he's totally rocking the NES Power Pad!

* I normally don't put much stock in off-season reports about how well a player looks in training camp or practices because everyone looks good in June, July, and August (even Troy Williamson), but I'm encouraged by this article about the (likely) new Vikings right tackle, Phil Loadholt (link thanks to Pacifist Viking). His real test will still come in pass protection against the league's elite defensive ends, but if he can at least be average this year, it'll still be a big step up from Ryan Cook.

* The other new Viking starting o-lineman, John Sullivan, looks to have already earned the starting center job. It sounds less impressive, though, when his only real competition was Ryan Cook.

* But hey, not everything about Ryan Cook is bad. In fact, here's proof:

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Williams' suspension likely to be upheld

In what seemed like an inevitability over the last few weeks, the NFL Players' Union lost its case against the makers of StarCaps, the dietary supplement that Pat Williams and Kevin Williams took that caused them to test positive for a banned substance last year. The ruling was delayed after a legal challenge, allowing the Williamses to finish out the 2008 season, but now the way is open for them to each face a four-game suspension in 2009.

I've already made my opinion on the subject known -- namely that the whole affair is more than a little shady -- and there's still a slim chance that the suspensions won't stick, but for now, Vikings fans are looking at the very real possibility that the Williams Wall won't suit up until nearly mid-October. The Vikings' early schedule, which previously looked rather soft, could now be a major obstacle for the team. If there's any consolation, it's that the four teams the Vikings face early -- Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and Green Bay -- all ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing last year, and only Green Bay could be considered "good" offensively, in general.

Still, even a poor team can look good when its opponent is missing one of its best defensive players. I'm referring, of course, to Kevin Williams, who's probably tied with Jared Allen for the best Viking defensive player. Pat Williams, as I've stated many times before, is overrated and one-dimensional. Yes, he's very good in that dimension (width -- er, I mean, stopping the run), but there are many other Vikings defenders I'd consider more valuable: Kevin Williams, Allen, Antoine Winfield, EJ Henderson, Chad Greenway, and maybe Madieu Williams and Cedric Griffin. A lot of people made a lot of noise when Pat Williams missed the last two games of the regular season last year and the Vikings gave up a lot of rushing yards against the Falcons and Giants. I merely pointed out that these were the #1 and #2 teams in rushing the ball for the entire season and that the Vikings held them to half a yard per carry under their season averages. Pat Williams is a lot of fun to watch, but he's in the middle of the pack when it comes to Vikings defensive players. Plus, if he returns for the fifth game of the season, he'll be just two weeks shy of his 37th birthday, so maybe the added "rest" wouldn't be the worst thing for him.

To be certain, this isn't the end of the world for the Vikings. The relatively soft schedule might allow the team to still come through with a 3-1 record and the one "tough" game, against Green Bay, is at the Metrodome. And maybe we won't even lose the Williamses, if a state judge still finds in favor of the players.

One thing I do know for sure, though: the makers of StarCaps are gonna get their pants sued off...

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Flagging myself

"The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry."
-- Robert Burns

Please excuse the pseudo-intellectual literary opening, but I've had this blog post rattling around in my head for a few weeks, ever since I came upon a startling discovery -- or so I thought.

I've been having fun with correlations lately. In a nutshell, when you try to correlate two sets of statistics -- say, offensive yardage and wins -- you come up with a number between -1 and 1. If your number's close to -1, you'd say there's a negative correlation between the two -- in my example, that would mean that the lower your offensive yards, the more wins your team will get (which we'd all agree to be false). If the number is close to 1, you'd have a positive correlation. In this case, we'd say that high offensive yardage totals tend to produce teams with more wins (which we'd figure to be true). If the result is near zero, then there's minimal or no correlation between the two stats.

You can have all sorts of fun with correlations and, thankfully, Excel makes them easy to compute. You might remember these two posts from last summer, where I tried to figure the correlation between rushing average and raw passing yards, along with passing average and raw rushing yards. My results were inconclusive and, the CORREL() function in Excel bears that out. Over the sample size that I used, passing yards correlates to rushing average at -0.096 and rushing yards correlate to passing average at 0.129. Both are essentially insignificant.

So, awash with glee at the new toy I found, I decided to see if I could find any other statistical connections that everyone "knows" that I could disprove. I immediately went to penalties. After years of watching John Randle (and now Kevin Williams) jump offsides seemingly every defensive series, I wanted to see how badly penalties hurt a team. In theory, if penalty yards significantly hurt a team, then we should see a high negative correlation between penalty yards and wins.

The early results: not so much. Here are what I got when I tried to find the correlation between penalty yards and wins over the last three seasons:

2008: 0.021
2007: -0.067
2006: -0.081
06-08: -0.043

That's not so damning, then, is it? The correlation between penalty yards and wins from 2006 to 2008 is virtually nil. Obviously, big penalties at crucial times, like that late pass interference call, or a defensive hold on the game-winning drive that lets a team convert a third-down, are huge, but, in the grand scheme of things, maybe being 1st-and-20 after an offensive holding call early in the second quarter isn't such a big deal. Take a look at the penalties stats page on ESPN.com and you'll see some of 2008's best teams -- like Dallas, Tennessee, and the NY Giants -- near the top of the list in penalty yardage, while some of the worst -- like Cincinnati and Seattle -- near the bottom. There's definitely no clear correlation, at least for 2008.

So here I was, all ready to come out with a bunch of theories as to why this was so, as to why penalties really had little effect on a team's performance. First, though, I thought I'd expand my research and take it back three more years, from 2003-2005, just to have a bigger sample size. Here's what I got:

2005: -0.266
2004: -0.259
2003: -0.280
03-05: -0.262

Whaaa?

A correlation of -0.262 is still not huge, but it's a good deal larger than -0.043, and could be considered at least mildly significant. By comparison, another pair of stats you'd expect to have a significant negative correlation -- offensive turnovers and wins -- clocks in at -0.435 for 2008.

That pretty much sunk my post and all the ideas I had regarding the minimal impact of penalties. Still, I think the data shows that penalties are not quite as catastrophic as most people would have you think (especially over the last three years) and some of my original theories still probably hold.

Especially in the John Randle/Kevin Williams examples, good defensive lineman try to anticipate the snap count. Sometimes this results in offsides, other times it results in great jumps that disrupt the offense. Similarly, as they say, "offensive holding occurs on every play," and it might be that the good O-linemen have figured out how to hold without getting caught, while the bad ones don't even attempt it and thus are flagged less often (while also being bad). And, not that they ever call offensive pass interference except about once a month, but every "good, physical" receiver pushes off at least a few times a game. Now the "dumb" penalties -- personal fouls, 12 men on the field, and so on -- have nothing to do with gaining an advantage or are the result of canny play and should clearly be avoided. But the rest might not be quite so bad.

Finally, I think that penalties have less of an impact on a game than people tend to give them credit for. In 2008, the typical team had 89.6 penalties called against it, or about 5.6 per game. Each team was involved in an average of 123.75 plays per game (not counting special teams), so that means a penalty was called on a team on less than 4.5% of its plays -- and maybe less than 4% if you include special teams in the mix. Yes, it sucks to have that bad penalty at a crucial time, but is 1st and 15 after a false start really that horrible? If you convert the first down anyway, the penalty was essentially meaningless. If anything, maybe coaches should save those timeouts for delay of game more often. And maybe fans shouldn't get quite as riled up about their players making a penalty that gives the other team free yards.

Doesn't mean I won't shout at the TV the next time Kevin Williams jumps offsides.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

No suspensions!

The Williams boys (and the rest of the players involved in the StarCaps case) are clear, at least for the rest of the season:

In his ruling Thursday, U.S. District Judge Paul Magnuson asked both parties to propose a schedule by Dec. 22 for further proceedings that would lead to an eventual hearing on the merits of the case, a process that could take months. The regular season ends Dec. 28.


Oh, and Visanthe Shiancoe has an offer to do porn. Thought you'd want to know.

Friday, December 5, 2008

So far, so good

NFL's drug suspension of 5 blocked by federal judge.

So the Williams Wall will be available for Sunday's game against Detroit. Which could be both good and bad news. Because if the suspensions stick, the Williamses will miss the next four games, no matter when they occur. Meaning that if they still are suspended next week, they'll miss the final three regular-season games and the first playoff game, should the Vikings advance to the postseason. A two-week delay would cost us two regular-season games and stretch into the playoffs or, potentially, next season. It's really an "all or nothing" gamble being undertaken by the Vikings, and it's possible the team could have still made the playoffs even without the Williams boys for the season's final four games. Taking the four-game suspension now could, quite possibly, have been the least harmful move. Now, though, they'll have to completely overturn the NFL's ruling to have any shot of keeping this from being a disaster.

* You know I don't like using this, but...the Vikings are 7-3 with Gus Frerotte in the lineup. Perhaps even more significant, after a 1-3 start without Bryant McKinnie, the team is 7-2 with him.

* Since taking over as the Lions' starter, Daunte Culpepper has been sacked 11 times in 102 dropbacks (a 10.6% rate) and thrown six interceptions in 91 pass attempts (6.6%). His passer rating is 53.6 and he's averaging 2.3 yards on eight rushes.

Really, why didn't this guy have a job earlier in the season? That's what every NFL pundit was asking throughout the season. I know Detroit's awful, but where are all the Daunte defenders now?

* Another note on how awful the Lions are: They've given up 38, 31, 38, and 47 points to low-watt offenses Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee in their previous four games and their final four put them against the best running back in the league (Adrian Peterson), a guy who knows a thing or two about picking apart a bad defense (Peyton Manning), an MVP candidate (Drew Brees) and the #5 scoring offense in the league (Green Bay).

The NFL record for most points allowed in a season is 533 by the 1981 Baltimore Colts. That's 33.3 per game. The Lions have allowed a league-high 393 points this season, 32.8 per game. This could be a record-breaking defense, and for all the wrong reasons.

That is, of course, assuming the Vikings can score more than 12.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Told ya it wouldn't stick...

For the short term, at least.

Suspensions handed down on Williamses

After weeks of speculation and legal maneuvering, the inevitable happened yesterday when the NFL came down on Kevin Williams, Pat Williams, and four other NFL players, suspending them for four games apiece for taking a water pill that contained the banned substance Bumetanide. The season's not lost yet...the players are expected to file an injunction today that would permit them to continue playing for the time being, so we might still see the Williams boys suit up Sunday against Detroit.

Now, normally, I'm all for athletes getting properly punished for breaking the rules. The NFL has a very strict "You are responsible for what you put in your body" rule and I generally agree with it. And I hope I'm not letting homerism sneak in to my judgment. But there's a lot about this situation that's fishy.

* First, understand that Bumetanide itself is not a performance enhancer. It's used to mask the presence of steroids. So there's no proof that Kevin, Pat, or anyone else using the substance is using any kind of performance enhancer. That said, it's obviously on the banned substances list for that reason.

* Here's where it gets really tricky. The manufacturer of StarCaps, the OTC weight-loss pill that contains Bumetanide, does not list the substance as a component of the pill. Again, the NFL's "You are responsible for what you put in your body" rule is a good one, I believe, but when a banned substance isn't listed among the ingredients of a pill, what are you supposed to do? Take everything you ingest to a lab and have it tested?

In any event, StarCaps won't have the opportunity to repeat this "mistake," if it even was unintentional, as they're getting sued off their asses by the suspended players.

* And even trickier -- and here's the big one -- it seems the NFL was aware that StarCaps contained Bumetanide as early as 2006, but did not inform the players or the players' union. So you have a pill with a substance that you don't want your players using but you don't tell them that it contains that substance. Why not? And then you punish them for taking it when you could have just as easily sent out a memo at any point that said, "Don't take this?"

Again, I'm all for a tough drug policy, but it's hard not to side, at least a little bit, with the players on this one. They took something that the manufacturer told them was OK, that the league told them was OK (or at least didn't tell them it wasn't OK), and then they were suddenly told that it wasn't OK and they would be punished for it.

Suppose you like Pizza Hut pizza. You look over the ingredient list. Everything's fine. Then, after eating it for a couple of years, your boss tells you that it contains something that's against your company's drug policy. You're going to be suspended from your job for a month without pay. Now suppose that both Pizza Hut and your employer knew the pizza had the illegal drug in it and didn't tell you. Great, huh?

We haven't seen the end of this whole affair, not by a long shot. Lawsuits will be filed, both against StarCaps and, possibly against the NFL itself. My feeling is that the Vikings will still have the services of the Williams boys for the remainder of the season and that this whole thing won't be sorted out until the off-season. In the meantime, sorry Lions fans...you can't dislodge the Williams wall that easily.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Will Vikings have a problem with Houston?

You know what they say when the Vikings and the Texans collide...

Well, "they" don't really say anything, since the two teams have met only once before, with the Vikings winning the teams' 2004 meeting in Houston, 34-28. I'd say you shouldn't expect a similar score this year, but after following up a 12-10 win with a 48-41 loss, I really don't know what to expect from the Vikings this week. Toss in the fact that Houston is 3-4 after an 0-4 start (and should probably be 4-3, if not for Sage Rosenfels trying to imitate John Elway's helicopter spin), and this game could go either way, with virtually any score.

For now, at least, it doesn't appear that Pat Williams and Kevin Williams will be suspended for violating the league's banned-substance policy, which is some relief. On the down side, Brad Childress is still the head coach. Could the league suspend him, instead? Pretty please?

You know what I'd like to see? The Wildcat. I know, I know, it's a copycat league, but I actually had this idea last December, so maybe I'm ahead of the curve! Imagine Chester Taylor taking the snap, optioning to Adrian Peterson, and then maybe throwing it deep to -- well, obviously not Gus Frerotte, but hey, how about Tarvaris Jackson? If Joe Flacco can catch a 43-yard pass, why can't T-Jack? And Taylor's already got a TD pass this year. It would be innovative, unexpected, and exciting!

All of which probably guarantees Chilly won't do it.

On the bright side, despite giving up 48 points in the last game against the Bears, the defense really is playing pretty well. They're sixth in the league in yards allowed per game, and have only allowed one opponent to gain more than 327 yards (New Orleans, 375) and have held four of seven opponents under 300 total yards. On the down side, there's the special teams, which have given up way too many big returns and touchdowns, even if they have blocked a couple field goals. They're the reason the Vikings are averaging 23.9 points per game allowed (18th in the league). And hey, did we send our bribe to the officials this week? Because we obviously missed it last week.

One other thing to note about Houston's record is that the team's three wins have come at the expense of Miami, Detroit, and Cincinnati -- not exactly an elite schedule -- so they may be a little softer than first believed. But if the Vikings are good at any one thing, it's playing down to the competition, so expect this game to be contested until the final whistle.

Let's just hope someone keeps an eye on what the Williams boys put in their Gatorade.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Not good news

Don't have time for a long post this morning, but reading this should make you vomit up your corn flakes.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Top 20 Minnesota Vikings

Everybody loves a list! Therefore, I present to you, in the spirit of "still too long until training camp begins and we need something to talk about," the top 20 current and most valuable Minnesota Vikings. That means that, for each one, you have to ask, "What would be the damage to the team if we lost that player?" and not simply a question of whether he's a better player than the one ranked underneath him. Some consideration should also be given to a player's age and how likely it is that the team will need to replace him in the near future anyway.

As a result, my #1 pick may come as a bit of a surprise to most...

1. Jared Allen, DE. This is a definite case of looking at how Allen will likely improve the team and what the options are if he misses time. Ray Edwards and Brian Robison are OK, but Allen is an absolute beast of a pass rusher who's also very good against the run. His presence will make the rest of the defensive line and, by extension, the rest of the defense a top-notch unit.

2. Adrian Peterson, RB. He's the most electrifying player on the team and the best bet to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. The only reason I bump him down to #2 is the presence of Chester Taylor and the great skill of the offensive line, which allowed three backs last year to average better than 5.0 yards per carry. It's a tough call, and he's amazing to watch, but think about it, really -- would you rather have to rely on Chester Taylor to run the ball or Brian Robison to rush the QB?

3. Kevin Williams, DT. The (second) big(-gest) man in the middle, K-dub could return to his great pass-rushing form of 2003-04 with Allen providing heat from the outside. He had 10.5 and 11.5 sacks each of his first two seasons with the team, but has only managed 12 sacks in the previous three seasons. He's extremely athletic for a man of his size, though, with four career interceptions and nine fumble recoveries in his career, and he's taken four of them to the house, including scores of 77 and 54 yards. Run, Kevin, run!

4. Bryant McKinnie, OT. While his loss may not be devastating, if indeed he is suspended by the league for his off-season exploits, McKinnie is, at the least, a very good left tackle, the type of which pretty much any QB would love to have protecting his blindside. And the alternatives are Artis Hicks and Marcus Johnson. Tarvaris Jackson doesn't need those kinds of things to worry about; he's got enough already.

5. E.J. Henderson, LB. Henderson cemented himself as the central figure of the defense, racking up 95 tackles last season and providing the backup should any team be somehow able to run past the Williams boys up the middle. He's shown a little bit of pass-rushing talent lately, too, with 4.5 sacks in 2007 and he'll be calling the plays for the defense in 2008.

6. Antoine Winfield, CB. While watching many a Vikings broadcast last year, the announcers would often bring up the sanguine question of "With those two mammoths up the middle, why don't teams run outside on the Vikings?" A few plays later, the opposing team would do just that, and there was the best-tackling cornerback in the NFL, stuffing the running back after a one-yard gain. Williams and Williams get a lot of credit for the Vikings' stifling run defense, but Winfield makes it so that teams can't just avoid those two and get results.

7. Steve Hutchinson, OG. While I think he was a bit overrated upon his arrival, and the team also "added" Matt Birk (who missed all of the 2005 season) to the offensive line in 2006, Hutch shone in 2007, helping his team average 5.3 yards per carry, and, like McKinnie, his potential replacements aren't that great. And just ask Shaun Alexander if he'd like to have Hutch back.

8. Pat Williams, DT. "Phat Pat" has been the immovable object in the center of the Vikings defense that has yet to meet an irresistable force. And it turns out he's a pretty good guy, too. Even if he does lie about his weight. If he's 317 pounds, so am I.

9. Bernard Berrian, WR. The only true deep threat in the Vikings passing game (depending on how well Sidney Rice shapes up), Berrian might not actually be that good, and he's likely overpaid, but he ranks this high due to the lack of quality options at the wide receiver position.

10. Madieu Williams, S. With Dwight Smith gone, the team needed to find a new safety and they found one in "Williams #3," plucking the coverage man from the Cincinnati Bengals. While his overall numbers might not seem that impressive, look at his passed deflected (PD) totals the last two years. His total of 20 beats out Smith (15) and Darren Sharper (17), and he missed three games in 2007. (Winfield, meanwhile, in missing six games in 2007, still leads the Vikings in PDs over the last two years, with 23.)

11. Matt Birk, C. Another lower-than-expected selection, I just see Birk as still very good but likely no longer elite, especially considering the other slabs of beef manning the offensive line. The Vikings are unlikely to sign him after this season and drafted a center in the late rounds of the draft. Plus, with Adrian Peterson, the team is more likely to run outside than it ever has in recent years, making the center position somewhat less valuable.

12. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. He had to be here somewhere, didn't he? T-Jack rides this high on the chart largely due to the complete lack of options the team has at the position. Gus Frerotte and Brooks Bollinger are dead weight, John David Booty is a rookie, and Kyle Wright was recently waived. Plus, as much as I've gotten on his case, he does have the potential to be at least an average, Trent-Dilfer-in-2000-type quarterback, and that's all his team needs right now.

13. Darren Sharper, S. Adding Madieu Williams should help ease some of the pressure that's been placed on Sharper the last few years, and the team drafted his likely replacement, Tyrell Johnson, with its top draft pick. The old man's still got an eye for the ball, though, notching four picks in 2007 and taking one to paydirt.

14. Chad Greenway, LB. Another key to the Vikings' strength against the outside run (along with Antoine Winfield) was Chad Greenway, who overcame a devastating knee injury that wiped out his rookie season to come back and finish third on the team in 2007 with 78 tackles and two interceptions (one returned for a TD).

15. Sidney Rice, WR. Rice figures to improve on his solid rookie numbers (31 catches, 396 yards, 4 TD) and could even surpass Bernard Berrian as the team's primary target by year's end. Plus, it just feels good having a wide receiver named "Rice" on the team, doesn't it?

16. Chris Kluwe, P. You knew I had to put him on the list somewhere, right? Let's face it: For a team that plans to rely on a grind-it-out running game and staunch defense, having a punter to limit the opponent's field position is key. Kluwe was 8th in the league in punting average in 2007 and only 21st in net average, but third in percentage of punts pinned down inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Few teams will be able to drive 80+ yards against the Vikings defense in 2008, I think.

17. Chester Taylor, RB. The yin to Adrian Peterson's yang -- or something like that -- Taylor stepped in admirably when Peterson wasn't available in 2007, and the team nearly had two 1,000-yard backs. With Mewelde Moore inexplicably let go, Taylor will face more of a burden of responsibility should anything happen to Peterson, and even if AP stays healthy all year, you could do a lot worse than insert Taylor for a series or two on offense each half.

18. Ben Leber, LB. The leading sacker among Vikings linebackers, Leber just always seems to be around the ball and making things happen. I know, I know, that sounds far too much like a David Eckstein-like "he plays the game the right way" comment, but I just like the guy and think he's underrated on a defensive unit that features much bigger stars.

19. Cedric Griffin, CB. Who led the Vikings in passes defended and was #2 on the team in tackles in 2007? The one guy in the secondary who most non-Vikings fans have never heard of, Cedric Griffin. So why does he rate so low? Because he was the perceived "weak link" in the Vikings' secondary all year, he was targeted an uncommon number of times, allowing him to rack up some impressive-looking numbers -- while also getting torched on more than one occasion. Still, trial by fire has likely made Griffin a better player and more will be expected of him in 2008.

20. Ryan Longwell, K. Sure, why not put a kicker at the bottom of the list? Longwell's been accurate and dependable in his two years in purple, and he finally got the team to stop looking Gary Anderson's way. And he's certainly gotten results, booting through 40 of 43 FGs from under 50 yards over the last two years after missing six such kicks in his last year in Green Bay. Sure, he's only 1-for-6 from 50 or more, but what else do you want from a soon-to-be 34-year-old kicker?