Vikings tame Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are consistently rated as one of the least popular franchises in the NFL, despite their generally winning ways. After the show they put on for their hometown fans yesterday against the Vikings, it's easy to see why.

With a 14-0 lead before two minutes had elapsed in the game, the Vikings practically cruised to a victory over the bumbling Jaguars, 30-12. Between the turnovers (5), penalties (8 for 81 yards), and missed field goals (2), the Jags shot themselves in the foot over and over and the Vikings were good enough to take advantage of an extremely sloppy team.

The Vikings were far from perfect, however. Gus Frerotte seems to be getting worse with age, throwing many inaccurate balls and lobbing up a terrible interception while getting battered around and knocked out of the game three times. After the third one, crazy as it sounds, I was actually optimistic about seeing Tarvaris Jackson come in. That's how bad Frerotte's been lately.

And, while I'm not against the early benching of Adrian Peterson -- if he broke the team rules, he should be punished -- Brad Childress again showed how utterly unwilling he is to run the ball unless absolutely necessary. There were 29 called runs in the game (17 to Peterson, 9 to Chester Taylor, 2 by Bernard Berrian, and 1 QB sneak) and 24 called passes (20 passes, 3 sacks, and 1 QB scramble). More runs than passes, yes, but barely...and the Vikings led the entire game! The "best" decision? With the Vikings enjoying a first-and-goal on the one, Childress called a play-action pass. Frerotte dropped back and was immediately dropped for a 10-yard loss. A field goal followed three plays later. Unbelieveable. Brad Childress, why don't you want to run the ball? Please answer that. Please. I'm begging you.

Then there's the defense, which gave up way too many third-down conversions, some of them on long yardage. The Jacksonville run game was shut down, as usual, but that was largely due to Jacksonville abandoning the run early, due to their big deficit. For the early parts of the game, David Garrard had all day to throw or, like Jeff Garcia a week before, was able to avoid pressure and either scramble for yards or find a receiver downfield. His final numbers -- 27-45 for 317 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions, along with 4 sacks -- aren't that great, taken from a standpoint of averages, but they hide the fact that the Jags pretty much had their way with the Vikings' pass defense all day and was only stymied by turnovers and penalties.

And where to start on punt coverage? I think I just won't.

Really, this was about the least dominating 18-point win you'll ever see in football. Jacksonville outgained the Vikings by nearly 100 yards (321 to 226), added another 211 yards on returns (compared to 55 for the Vikings) and only lost the time of possession battle (30:29 to 29:31) on the Vikings' final kneel-down "drive."

Next week is a big Sunday night game against Chicago, which, even in week 13, can have the effect of virtually ending the Vikings' playoff hopes. A loss against the Bears puts the Vikings at 6-6 and, having been swept by the Bears, would put them effectively two games back of the 7-5 Bears, with a brutal December schedule upcoming. A win puts the Vikings at 7-5, one game up on the Bears and, depending on the Packers, could put them in sole charge of the division.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. For now, we'll just have to root for the Saints. And, since I need Drew Brees to get my fantasy team five points, I don't think I'll have a problem with that.

I can't make this stuff up

Good lord, would I pay money to see Troy Williamson and Brad Childress go at it.

It would probably boil down to Troy punching Brad in the head a lot, since his hands are made of stone, and Childress doesn't use his brain anyway.

Vikings in tight situation

Pat and Kevin Williams are still suiting up for the Vikings against the Jaguars on Sunday -- for now.

Actually, since suspensions are usually handed out early in the week, it's pretty much guaranteed that the Vikings will have the Williams' services this week for certain. And Jared Allen only received a $25k fine (not a suspension) for his hits on Aaron Rodgers. And the Jaguars, at 4-6, represent one of the "easier" games on the Vikings remaining schedule, so the team should have a pretty good chance of winning and they need to win, to provide a little bit of a boost in the standings before the inevitable suspensions are handed down. To do so, the team will have to contain the Jaguars' #1 offensive weapon.

No, not Fred Taylor, or Maurice Jones-Drew, or David Garrard. I'm talking about tight end Marcedes Lewis, all 22 catches and 306 yards of him.

Why is Lewis so important? Because, since E.J. Henderson was lost for the season, opposing tight ends have torched the Vikings. Here are the stats for teams' primary tight end since Henderson's week four injury:

Billy Miller (NO): 4 catches, 61 yards
Michael Gaines (Det): 2-24
Greg Olsen (Chi): 6-74 (and 3-59 to Desmond Clark)
Owen Daniels (Hou): 11*-133*
Donald Lee (GB): 1-6
Jerramy Stevens (TB): 6*-84*

* Career high

That's a total of 30 catches for 382 yards over six games to opposing teams' primary tight ends. Prorate that out over 16 games and you get 80 catches for 1,019 yards, so, in effect, the Vikings defense is turning opposing tight ends into the equivalent of Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates. Ugly. At this rate, maybe David Herron should get more playing time over Napoleon Harris in the middle.

Any chance we can convince Jack Del Rio to suit up for us this weekend? No? Damn.

Training Camp!

It's finally here! Which means...

Well, not much actually. It means another few weeks of reports like "Adrian Peterson is running hard" and "Tarvaris Jackson is making all the throws" that are essentially meaningless. Real news only comes out of training camp when there's a position battle or if someone gets hurt. Pretty much all the Vikings' starters have already been determined, and we hope nobody gets hurt, so there shouldn't be much to report the next few weeks. With the first preseason game (Aug. 8 vs. Seattle) a tantalizingly close two weeks away and the team's sole nationally televised preseason game (Aug. 23 against Pittsburgh) less than a month away, the only drama is really whether everyone will stay healthy and whether they Vikings will wear those awful purple pants:

or, even worse, the purple-on-purple combo:


in any of their preseason games.

(OK, so maybe that's not the only drama, but I refuse to talk any more about you-know-who until something actually happens, good or bad.)

Even so, the Star Tribune posted a list of five things to watch for in Training Camp, most of which, again, are impossible to gauge until the games are for real. I suppose the question of Bryant McKinnie's availability, pending a possible league suspension, is news, but again, that's been lingering for months now with no obvious end in sight. And hey, look at #4, where they wonder if Visanthe Shiancoe has improved because he's catching passes in workouts.

Here's my take: If you're an NFL receiver, you should catch 99.9% of balls thrown at you during drills and camp. That's because the quarterback isn't under any pressure and you can run your route at your leisure. But actual catching ability is a small part of a receiver's skill set. When the QB has to aim an off-balance throw your way and the DB/LB is jamming you at the line and you have to make a precise cut with no room for error, that's when it's time to see if you're actually a good receiver.

That said, Troy Williamson is "looking good" in Jaguars camp. No, I didn't read that anywhere, but I know every writer covering the Jags has written it at least once this off-season.

Well, I've managed to stretch a post about, essentially, nothing into nearly 400 words, which means I could have been a writer for Seinfeld. I'll try to come up with something more interesting next week. Have a great weekend, and keep your fingers crossed about the purple pants!

How good is your team's top receiver?

When I wrote my post last week about Bernard Berrian's expectations, I found that the Vikings haven't had a single receiver top the 700-yard mark (much less the 1,000-yard mark) for three straight seasons. Clearly, lack of production from the team's #1 wideout contributed to the Berrian signing, but it got me to thinking: Were the Vikings the team most in need of a true #1 receiver this offseason? Or was there another team that needed that deep threat more?

My method of figuring this out was simple. I took each team's top receiver and divided his yardage total by his team's total passing yards, discounting sacks to determine the percentage of his team's yards each "top" receiver accumulated. The smaller that percentage, the "worse" that team's #1 receiver. Thus, a receiver who caught 1,200 yards worth team that threw for 3,600 yards would have accounted for 33.3% of his team's passing yards. That would have made him a "better" #1 receiver than a player who caught 1,400 yards for a team that threw for 4,500 (31.1%) but "worse" than a 1,000-yard receiver on a team that threw for 2,500 (40%). After all, it should be harder to have a 1,000-yard season on a crappy team than it is to get 1,500 yards on a good passing team, right?

Here are the results for 2007:

Team	PassYds	#1Rec	#1RecYds	Percent
Indianapolis	4172	Wayne	1510	36.2%
Denver	3759	Marshall	1325	35.2%
Cincinnati	4131	Johnson	1440	34.9%
Carolina	2941	Smith	1002	34.1%
NY Jets	3330	Cotchery	1130	33.9%
Atlanta	3573	White	1202	33.6%
St. Louis	3561	Holt	1189	33.4%
Cleveland	3866	Edwards	1289	33.3%
Arizona	4228	Fitzgerald	1409	33.3%
Kansas City	3525	Gonzalez	1172	33.2%
Baltimore	3308	Mason	1087	32.9%
Dallas	4290	Owens	1355	31.6%
San Diego	3175	Gates	984	31.0%
New England	4859	Moss	1493	30.7%
NY Giants	3376	Burress	1025	30.4%
Buffalo	2842	Evans	849	29.9%
Tampa Bay	3579	Galloway	1014	28.3%
Philadelphia	4005	Curtis	1110	27.7%
Pittsburgh	3418	Holmes	942	27.6%
Seattle	4181	Engram	1147	27.4%
New Orleans	4423	Colston	1202	27.2%
Chicago	3701	Berrian	951	25.7%
Oakland	2893	Curry	717	24.8%
Tennessee	3077	Gage	750	24.4%
Green Bay	4461	Driver	1048	23.5%
Detroit	4216	McDonald	943	22.4%
San Francisco	2685	Battle	600	22.3%
Washington	3622	Moss	808	22.3%
Minnesota	2938	Wade	647	22.0%
Houston	3925	Johnson	851	21.7%
Jacksonville	3495	Williams	629	18.0%
Miami	3319	Booker	556	16.8%

Looks like Minnesota wasn't the worst at getting top production from its top receiver. Houston, Jacksonville, and Miami did worse, though two of those teams have excuses. Houston can at least point to the injury to Andre Johnson that kept him out for nearly half the season. His 94.6 average yards per game actually led the league last year, though he only suited up for nine games. Miami, meanwhile, traded Chris Chambers after six games; he had accumulated 415 yards up until that game and added 555 in San Diego, finishing with 970. If he'd gained all that yardage with Miami, he would have accounted for 29.2% of the team's production in the passing game, and even with lesser success, it's likely he would have kept the team out of the bottom spot. Meanwhile, espite David Garrard's breakthrough year, Jacksonville is probably the only team in the league consistently referred to as having worse wide receivers than Minnesota. Hey, good luck with Troy Williamson and 30-year-old Jerry Porter, guys!

It's both a little surprising and unsurprising to see Indianapolis at the top of this list. On the one hand, as much as the team is known for passing, you'd think there'd be enough yards to go around. Then again, Peyton Manning has been known to throw a lot (to the tune of 143 catches for Marvin Harrison in 2002) to his favorite receiver Reggie Wayne led the team this year, but from 1999 to 2006, Manning threw for 33,847 yards while Harrison caught 11,219, the vast majority of them coming from the arm of Manning. That would make for a 33.1% rate for virtually their entire career together, which would put them at #11 on this list. Wow.

In reality, this chart is just a fun way of looking at how much each team got out of its "top" receiver. For Berrian to manage 1,160 yards, as WhatIfSports thinks, though, Vikings passers would have to manage just over 3,200 yards in the air to get to Indy's 36.1% rate from last year -- possible, but unlikely. With the running game as good as it is and the potential emergence of Sidney Rice, Berrian probably won't put up those kind of numbers, but he should be good enough to get us out of the bottom five.

The Los Angeles Vikings?

This news snippet fell under the Minnesota Vikings heading on my Yahoo home page today. Don't worry, it's nothing to get too excited about -- the team isn't going anywhere just yet. Rather, the Vikings were tossed out as a possible candidate for relocation to L.A. (along with the New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, and San Diego Chargers, three other cities with "stadium uncertainties"). Still, Minnesota has already lost one pro sports team to the City of Angels, and, when the Metrodome lease expires after 2011, and with plans for a new stadium in limbo, where will the Vikings play?

Unlike former owner Red McCombs, Zygi Wilf has made no noise about moving the team, though he clearly still expects public money to go to the funding of a new stadium. At the end of the day, Wilf's a businessman, and if he can't get the deal he wants in Minnesota, he'll likely look elsewhere or sell the team to a party that can find the Vikings a new home.

That brings us to Edward P. Roski, Jr., the developer mentioned in the Los Angeles article, who says he can construct a stadium in L.A. -- shock of shocks! -- without taxpayer's money. It would be interesting to see how that holds up once the delays and cost overruns that accompany virtually any construction of this magnitude hit, but his bold statements have certainly gotten people's attention. And, as quiet as the NFL has been publicly on the front of putting a team in Los Angeles (content instead to play regular-season games in England and Canada), there's no doubt that a pro team in the nation's #2 most-populated market is on Roger Goodell's wish list.

Roski aside, it's a pipe dream to think that any pro sports owner will ever again foot the bill for a new stadium completely out of his own pocket. If the Vikings want a new stadium, fans will have to pay for it. It's easy for me to sit here -- in Charlotte, N.C. -- and say, "Let's build a new stadium in Minnesota." It's not my tax dollars that are going to pay for it. And I'd wager that about 90% of the comments on similar "Should the stadium be built with taxpayer money?" posts online are some variation of "Just get it done!" without any thought to the financial consequences.

On the other hand, even if the team doesn't move into its privately funded L.A. stadium, there will likely be other cities out there in the next couple years who would be willing to raise taxes to get a professional football team if Minnesota's citizens don't step up to the plate. It's a catch-22 that every city puts itself in when it couples itself with a pro sports franchise. Eventually, that franchise is going to want a new stadium, and the choices are either pay up (and tick off the citizens) or let the team go (and tick off the citizens). The Metrodome, hideous as it is, is only 26 years old. The Twins are leaving and so soon will (probably) the Vikings. Will we go through this again in another few decades?

Of the other three teams mentioned above, Jacksonville would, I think, be the best fit for a move to L.A. As I've previously brought up, the Jaguars' fan base is nearly nonexistent, and that's a waste for such a good team. (Side note: If I put "JacksonvilleJaguars" as a tag, do you think I'll get the same reaction as the last time I included the "GreenBayPackers" tag?) If the Vikings do move to L.A., though, it would be a tough pill to swallow. Then again, maybe the NFL could pull a Cleveland and ship the Vikings to L.A. and the Jaguars to Minnesota a year or two later...

Hey, it can't hurt to have a contingency plan, can it?