Letting it sink in

After a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like Brett Favre. Or maybe not.

This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. Anything. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted right now. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, Brad Childress won't set a deadline for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)

Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. Ryan Longwell is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even Troy Aikman didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when Troy Aikman thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up Reggie Bush on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.

No, the blame has to go around to guys like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.

It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the 1999 loss to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.

But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.

Wait 'til next year.

Not so bad after all

Given the deal the Falcons just gave Roddy White (6 years, $50 million, $18.6 million guaranteed) and the Cardinals gave Larry Fitzgerald (4 years, $40 million) last offseason, suddenly the 6-year, $42 million ($16 million guaranteed) for Bernard Berrian doesn't seem so bad. Certainly, Berrian's not in Fitzgerald's (who seems dramatically underpaid) league, but he might be on par with White, assuming the Vikings get better quarterback play.

Of course, long contracts for wide receivers -- and, admittedly, any player -- can be dicey. Two years ago, this article quoted Steve Smith's new deal as putting him "among the five highest-paid receivers in the league, along with Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Javon Walker and Deion Branch."

Smith, Harrison, Owens: Worth big money.

Walker, Branch: Not so much.

Hey, at least Fred Smoot's off the Vikings' books!

Housh your daddy?

UPDATE: ESPN is reporting that T.J. Houshmanzadeh has signed with the Seattle Seahawks. Which is probably not a terrible thing for the Vikings. Now we just have Jay Cutler rumors to digest...

=====

It could be Zygi Wilf and the Minnesota Vikings. The team is reportedly very interested in free-agent Bengals WR T.J. Houshmanzadeh (referred to hereafter as "Housh"), who visited the team over the weekend. Housh's other suitors include his old team, Cincinnati, and Seattle, who might be more interested in signing a free-agent wide receiver now that Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, widely considered a lock for the Seahawks' #4 pick, missed most of the NFL combine events with a stress fracture in his foot.

The only problem is, I'm not sure signing Housh is a great idea for the Purple.

Let's face it: Bernard Berrian is overrated and overpaid. I don't really dislike his signing, or the amount of money he's making as a Viking; we had the cap money to spend last year and desperately needed to upgrade the passing game, and Berrian does just that. All things being equal, though, he's not worth top-10 receiver money, which is what he's getting. He just became a free agent at exactly the right time and the Vikings had the wherewithal to snatch him up.

Housh is nowhere near the same kind of player as Berrian. He's three years older (turning 32 in September), slower (11.4 yards per career reception, compared to Berrian's 16.0), and has just two 1,000-yard seasons in his career. Granted, 1,000 is an arbitrary number; Housh has topped 900 yards each of his last five seasons. His average over that time is 1,012 yards per season.

But here's the thing: Housh has put up those numbers playing for a very pass-happy offense with a #1 overall pick at quarterback. Carson Palmer's first year (2004) as a Bengals' starter wasn't impressive, and the Bengals' QB situation in 2008 was a mess, but from 2005 to 2007, he averaged 4,000 yards and 29 TD passes per season. Housh did OK those three years, but didn't put up the kind of spectacular numbers you'd expect from a wide receiver in that kind of offense.

Yes, he had Chad Johnson working opposite him, racking up huge numbers, and I think Housh is fine as a #2 receiver in an offense with another established threat -- in other words, the same situation he was in with Cincinnati. He can run the underneath routes and make catches over the middle, which would be fine if he was looking for #2 receiver money. But, as the best option in a weak free-agent WR class, my guess is that Housh isn't looking for #2 money. He's probably looking for something more like what Bernard Berrian got last year, and, for a guy who's about to turn 32 and whose yards per reception have dropped every year for the past four years, I don't want the Vikings to be the team that signs him.

If they can get him for a deal similar to the one inked by Sage Rosenfels -- say, two or three years for about $4-$5 million per, I could see the deal being done. But we've already got what appears to be a decent (but likely overpaid) slow, short option over the middle, only at the tight end position (and no, I'm not talking about the recently re-signed Jim Kleinsasser). Why do we need another? I'd rather take my chances with Bobby Wade and spend money earmarked for Housh on an offensive lineman for the right side.

Vikes win Card game

OK, who all started Tarvaris Jackson in their fantasy league? Yeah, that's what I thought.

Exiled to the sports bar, the Vikings/Cardinals game was on the same TV as the Kansas City/San Diego game, which ran forever. I tuned in just in time to see a 3rd and 14 play (great) and see T-Jack drop back (uh-oh), heave a ball down the right sideline (going to be in the third row), which floats down to Bernard Berrian (great coverage, he'll never get it), who hauled it in (he'll go out of bounds), who then took it in for the touchdown (uhhh....).

What the hell do I know?

The game went pretty much exactly as I called it on Thursday, and Arizona was good enough to comply with our plans. The Cardinals completely ignored the run (seven called runs) while the Vikings played the pass and pressuring Kurt Warner (who was sacked four times and knocked down about 20 times) while running the ball down Arizona's throat all day long, to the tune of 44(!) runs for 239 yards. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combined for 231 yards and a 6.1 yard-per-carry average.

What I didn't expect was the good performance by Tarvaris Jackson. I'm not completely ga-ga over four TD passes -- the passes to Taylor and Sidney Rice were nondescript enough -- but the other two were beautiful. The two TD passes to Berrian and Bobby Wade couldn't have been thrown any better and while they required a nice play by each receiver to go for six, those are passes T-Jack simply doesn't make last year (or earlier this season). Again, 11 for 17 for 163 yards aren't eye-popping numbers, but T-Jack played basically error-free football, the kind he needs to play if he's going to be the Vikings quarterback going forward.

And you know, that might not be a bad thing. Not if he plays like he has the last game and a half and the Vikings commit to the run while playing good defense. That's a recipe for "Uh oh, NFC, watch out for the Vikings."

Now the Vikings are in the catbird's seat with regards to the NFC North. At 9-5, they still own a one-game lead over the 8-6 Bears, but they also own the tiebreaker with the Bears. That means they will win the division unless the Vikings go 0-2 down the stretch and the Vikings go 2-0. I can't believe I'm saying this, but...

Go Pack, go! Beat those Bears!

In the larger picture, the Vikings are in good position to secure the #3 seed in the NFC, now holding a one-game advantage over the 8-6 NFC West champion Cardinals, as well as the head-to-head tiebreaker. And, if things break incredibly well -- if the Vikings finish 2-0 (11-5) and the Carolina Panthers finish 0-2 (to also go 11-5), the Vikings would own tiebreaker over the Panthers, thanks to their victory over Carolina earlier in the season.

But that's all a ways off. Right now, let's just revel in the fact that the Vikings went into Arizona and emerged with their playoff dreams intact. Take that, Nate Poole.

Vikings 34, Bears 14

OK, so maybe I was a little premature in my consideration of Kyle Orton as future quarterback of the Vikings. The Vikings defense dominated Orton and the Bears for most of the game, forcing three interceptions and putting up an amazing goal-line stand in the 34-14 win. The three Bears turnovers resulted in 17 Vikings points, but it was the stop at the Vikings one that resulted in the most exciting play of the game -- if not of the season.

When the Vikings took over inside their own 1, I thought, "A pass might not be the worst thing in the world here." After being harassed much of the first quarter, Gus Frerotte had received decent protection the last few drives, so a safety wasn't much of a concern. When he launched the ball deep down the near sideline, my only thought was "Just complete it." When I saw Bernard Berrian running free, I thought, "Can he catch up with it?" When he caught it in stride and kept going, I leaped out of my chair and, if they were sleeping, I woke up the neighbors. 99 yards later, and the game had completely changed in just a few plays, and the Bears never recovered.

How big a turnaround was it? Before that play, the Bears had 171 yards of offense to the Vikings' 117. After that play, the Bears managed just 94 yards the rest of the game. The Vikings outdid that on the next play and amassed 268 total yards the rest of the game.

How did the Vikings stuff the Bears so completely in the second half, limiting them to just 6 yards on 7 plays in the fourth quarter? Would you believe by running the ball? Yes, Brad Childress finally appears to have figured out that it's good for the Vikings to run the ball, exclusively when they have the lead. The Vikings' play calls in the fourth quarter? Two passes against 16 runs, including 15 handoffs in a row to close out the game. Overall, in the second half, the Vikings ran 23 times while putting it up only 9 times, the perfect formula for sitting on a team's throat and throttling them, especially with the talent the Vikings have on offense.

The defense wasn't too shabby either, picking off Orton three times and limiting the Bears to just 228 yards of total offense. Nearly a third of that yardage came on one play, the quick slant that Devin Hester took 65 yards for a touchdown (which even John Madden called as being Darren Sharper's fault, further indicating that he's likely done with the Vikings after this season). Though Matt Forte ran the ball surprisingly well (22 carries for 96 yards), the goal-line stand will be what people remember from this game from the defense.

So, what does this leave for the Vikings now? The good news is they're at 7-5, a full game up on 6-6 Chicago and two up on 5-7 Green Bay. The bad news is that the Vikings clearly have the toughest schedule remaining of the three teams. After a visit to 0-12 Detroit, the Vikings travel to 7-5 Arizona, followed by home games against 8-4 Atlanta and 11-1 New York (which, hopefully, will have everything sewn up and can rest some of its starters). The Bears have three straight home games, and all of their opponents are under .500, while the Packers' only .500 or better opponent down the stretch is Chicago -- and they get to play Detroit again, too. Then there's the Kevin Williams/Pat Williams suspensions, which the league is expected to come to a decision on Tuesday, though it's said that the players could ask for an injunction against the suspension, allowing them to continue playing.

But that's all in the future. For now, let's just bask in the glow of another win over a division rival, a one-game lead in the division, and a league-record-tying 99-yard touchdown pass. It was about as complete a win as a Viking fan could hope for, so let's not spoil the moment.

One undeniable truth

There's only one thing I can conclude fully and completely after watching Sunday's games:

Say what you will about the Vikings' current quarterbacks, but man, am I glad my team doesn't have Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger manning the position any more.

Poking fun at Dallas aside (and I'll get more into that later this week), the Vikings' win over Houston was about as smooth a victory as the team looks to have all year. For the most part, I wasn't worried about the team's chances throughout, as the superior team beat (and beat up) the inferior team at home, like it's supposed to.

Bernard Berrian had a sink-or-swim performance, hauling in two long passes, one that went for a touchdown and another that set up a touchdown, but his bobble in the first quarter bounced right into the hands of Texan Jacque Reeves, who took it back for six. That was the only turnover of the day for the Vikings' offense, which started strong and got some key runs from Adrian Peterson late to help seal the 28-21 victory. Gus Frerotte shook off the early interception to have a good, efficient day for the Vikings, throwing just 18 times and completing 11 for 182 yards (a 10+ yard average) and three touchdowns, while handing off 32 times (25 to Peterson and 7 to Chester Taylor). Wow, who knew that would work? Other than everyone, that is.

As for the defense...well, it's not to say that turnovers are all about luck (and if you don't believe that, read this post), but you can't expect your defense to give up 350+ passing yards to two quarterbacks and come up with multiple red zone interceptions every game. The absence of E.J. Henderson was acutely felt, as the nearly anonymous tight end Owen Daniels caught 11 passes for 133 yards yesterday, most of them in the area where Henderson would have been defending. Considering the injuries at linebacker and how little teams run against them anyway, maybe the Vikings should consider going into a nickel defense automatically on 2nd or 3rd and more than 5, leaving Ben Leber and Chad Greenway on the field and subbing in a fifth DB for Napoleon Harris, who was apparently cut for a reason. Of course, that would take ingenuity and creative coaching, which pretty much guarantees it'll never happen. On the bright side, if you have a tight end facing the Vikings the next few weeks in your fantasy league, that's an easy start.

It was good to see Madieu Williams finally make his debut with the team, and he had one of the red-zone interceptions that halted a sure scoring drive for the Texans. Sidney Rice also returned at full strength, with his sole catch an 8-yard touchdown that put the team ahead for good in the second quarter. Next up: The team gets a chance to avenge its opening-day loss to the now-reeling Green Bay Packers in the Metrodome. Let's hope that Aaron Rodgers has the same jitters Brett Favre did under the big white roof.

Vikings are raiders in free agency

It's hardly news to say that the Minnesota Vikings have been active in free agency this offseason. With free agents Bernard Berrian, Madieu Williams, and Thomas Tapeh and trade acquisition Jared Allen all wearing purple this year, the Vikings have made a bold statement that they plan to win not just now, but for years to come.

It was a little surprising to me, though, to see just how active the Vikings were in free agency this spring and summer and how much they raided other teams' rosters for their free agents, compared to other teams. Using ESPN's free agency tracker, I found out how many players each team signed and how many of those players came from other organizations:

Team	OwnFA	OtherFA	TotalFA	%Other
NY Jets	0	6	6	100%
Miami	2	12	14	86%
Minnesota	2	9	11	82%
Tampa Bay	4	10	14	71%
Seattle	3	7	10	70%
San Francisco	4	7	11	64%
Philadelphia	3	5	8	63%
Denver	5	8	13	62%
Tennessee	5	7	12	58%
Kansas City	3	4	7	57%
Oakland	6	8	14	57%
Atlanta	7	9	16	56%
St. Louis	5	6	11	55%
Carolina	9	10	19	53%
New England	7	7	14	50%
Buffalo	5	4	9	44%
Jacksonville	5	4	9	44%
Houston	9	7	16	44%
Detroit	8	6	14	43%
NY Giants	4	3	7	43%
Chicago	3	2	5	40%
New Orleans	9	6	15	40%
Cleveland	7	4	11	36%
Arizona	12	6	18	33%
Baltimore	4	2	6	33%
Cincinnati	6	3	9	33%
Green Bay	2	1	3	33%
Pittsburgh	8	3	11	27%
Dallas	3	1	4	25%
San Diego	3	1	4	25%
Washington	6	1	7	14%
Indianapolis	4	0	4	0%

As you can see, the Minnesota Vikings got 82% of their free agents -- the third-highest figure in the league -- from other teams. Their total of nine free agents gained from other teams ranks fourth, behind only Miami, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. Obviously, this chart doesn't take rookie free agents, draft picks, and trades into account, but it does seem to confirm that the Vikings took a head-first dive into free agency this offseason, picking the best (or so we hope) from other teams' rosters and making them their own. Toss in the Jared Allen deal, which, even with the Adam Jones and Jason Taylor deals and the looming possibility of a Brett Favre trade, looks to be the most impactful long-term deal of the 2008 offseason, and it's hard not to say that the Vikings made the most noise, by far, in the offseason.

Now the question remains, will all that activity lead to success on the field? The Vikings have been far from quiet in free agency over the last several years, with Antoine Winfield, Fred Smoot, Darren Sharper, and Steve Hutchinson all moving north in recent years in big-time free-agent deals. Despite the loose purse strings, the team hasn't fared better than 9-7 under its last two head coaches and has only one playoff berth this decade. Many fans -- myself among them -- seem to think that this offseason spending spree will lead to bigger things for the team in the upcoming season, but until that success comes, there will always be the niggling shadow of doubt in the minds of Vikings' fans, harking back to the team's many missed opportunities over the team's first 47 seasons.

Which came first: the Bernard or the Adrian?

Even before Bernard Berrian inked his huge deal with the Vikings, people were already picking Adrian Peterson to have a 2008 to put his rookie year to shame. The excitement reached a fever pitch after Berrian was signed, as people believed he would open a passing game that was largely ineffective in Peterson's rookie year. With Berrian and an improved passing game in 2008, Peterson won't face eight defenders in the box and will run wild through opposing defenses all year long; 2,000 yards is a distinct possibility. If you play fantasy football and wind up with the fourth pick or lower -- or in some drafts, the second pick -- you likely won't even sniff Peterson.

But here's the thing: If Peterson is going to have such a phenomenal year because of the improved passing game, how will the passing game actually be improved if Peterson is rushing for 2,000 yards? An offense can only run so many plays, and if the bulk of them are going to Peterson (and maybe Chester Taylor), that won't leave much for Bernard Berrian and company. Going back again to fantasy drafts, I've heard two reasons why a player, especially a running back, might be poised for a breakout year:

Situation A: The team has a good passing game.
"That'll open up lots of holes for him! He'll have a huge year!"

Situation B: The team has a poor passing game.
"He's all they've got! He'll get tons of carries and have a huge year!"

Well, they can't both be true, can they? So, which is it? How does having a good passing game impact the running game (and vice versa)?

On the surface, it seems to make sense. But if you think about it, does one beget the other? Consider these questions:

Q: How do you have a good running game?
A: Have a good passing game to open holes for the running back.

Q: How do you have a good passing game?
A: Have a good running game so your receivers are single covered.

Er...OK. Chicken, meet egg.

Nobody would dispute that it's easier to run against seven in the box than it is against eight (or, in some cases against the Vikings last year, nine). But if the defense is stacking up to stop the run, shouldn't that mean the pass is wide open? But why are they stacking up to stop the run? Probably because the running game is very good, clearly better than the passing game. And if you're an offensive coordinator, shouldn't you be using what works? Do good running teams abandon or minimize the run just because the defense tries really hard to stop it. Of course not.

But when the offense does pass (or run against a team defending primarily against the pass), they should meet with some success, better than would be normally expected, right? They'll probably still pass fairly infrequently, but the results should be pretty good.

So maybe that's the key. A team that accumulates a lot of rushing yards should pass relatively infrequently but should be rather successful when they do pass. And a team that racks up the passing yardage runs infrequently but should be successful when they do run. In other words, high accumulation (raw yardage) in one stat should lead to a high rate (yards per carry or pass) in the other.

That's the theory, at least. This post is long enough, so I'll run the numbers and see what I come up with sometime this weekend. For now, just think about it and realize that if Bernard Berrian does somehow rack up 1,160 yards, it'll be more likely to come on 60 catches than on 80.

How good is your team's top receiver?

When I wrote my post last week about Bernard Berrian's expectations, I found that the Vikings haven't had a single receiver top the 700-yard mark (much less the 1,000-yard mark) for three straight seasons. Clearly, lack of production from the team's #1 wideout contributed to the Berrian signing, but it got me to thinking: Were the Vikings the team most in need of a true #1 receiver this offseason? Or was there another team that needed that deep threat more?

My method of figuring this out was simple. I took each team's top receiver and divided his yardage total by his team's total passing yards, discounting sacks to determine the percentage of his team's yards each "top" receiver accumulated. The smaller that percentage, the "worse" that team's #1 receiver. Thus, a receiver who caught 1,200 yards worth team that threw for 3,600 yards would have accounted for 33.3% of his team's passing yards. That would have made him a "better" #1 receiver than a player who caught 1,400 yards for a team that threw for 4,500 (31.1%) but "worse" than a 1,000-yard receiver on a team that threw for 2,500 (40%). After all, it should be harder to have a 1,000-yard season on a crappy team than it is to get 1,500 yards on a good passing team, right?

Here are the results for 2007:

Team	PassYds	#1Rec	#1RecYds	Percent
Indianapolis	4172	Wayne	1510	36.2%
Denver	3759	Marshall	1325	35.2%
Cincinnati	4131	Johnson	1440	34.9%
Carolina	2941	Smith	1002	34.1%
NY Jets	3330	Cotchery	1130	33.9%
Atlanta	3573	White	1202	33.6%
St. Louis	3561	Holt	1189	33.4%
Cleveland	3866	Edwards	1289	33.3%
Arizona	4228	Fitzgerald	1409	33.3%
Kansas City	3525	Gonzalez	1172	33.2%
Baltimore	3308	Mason	1087	32.9%
Dallas	4290	Owens	1355	31.6%
San Diego	3175	Gates	984	31.0%
New England	4859	Moss	1493	30.7%
NY Giants	3376	Burress	1025	30.4%
Buffalo	2842	Evans	849	29.9%
Tampa Bay	3579	Galloway	1014	28.3%
Philadelphia	4005	Curtis	1110	27.7%
Pittsburgh	3418	Holmes	942	27.6%
Seattle	4181	Engram	1147	27.4%
New Orleans	4423	Colston	1202	27.2%
Chicago	3701	Berrian	951	25.7%
Oakland	2893	Curry	717	24.8%
Tennessee	3077	Gage	750	24.4%
Green Bay	4461	Driver	1048	23.5%
Detroit	4216	McDonald	943	22.4%
San Francisco	2685	Battle	600	22.3%
Washington	3622	Moss	808	22.3%
Minnesota	2938	Wade	647	22.0%
Houston	3925	Johnson	851	21.7%
Jacksonville	3495	Williams	629	18.0%
Miami	3319	Booker	556	16.8%

Looks like Minnesota wasn't the worst at getting top production from its top receiver. Houston, Jacksonville, and Miami did worse, though two of those teams have excuses. Houston can at least point to the injury to Andre Johnson that kept him out for nearly half the season. His 94.6 average yards per game actually led the league last year, though he only suited up for nine games. Miami, meanwhile, traded Chris Chambers after six games; he had accumulated 415 yards up until that game and added 555 in San Diego, finishing with 970. If he'd gained all that yardage with Miami, he would have accounted for 29.2% of the team's production in the passing game, and even with lesser success, it's likely he would have kept the team out of the bottom spot. Meanwhile, espite David Garrard's breakthrough year, Jacksonville is probably the only team in the league consistently referred to as having worse wide receivers than Minnesota. Hey, good luck with Troy Williamson and 30-year-old Jerry Porter, guys!

It's both a little surprising and unsurprising to see Indianapolis at the top of this list. On the one hand, as much as the team is known for passing, you'd think there'd be enough yards to go around. Then again, Peyton Manning has been known to throw a lot (to the tune of 143 catches for Marvin Harrison in 2002) to his favorite receiver Reggie Wayne led the team this year, but from 1999 to 2006, Manning threw for 33,847 yards while Harrison caught 11,219, the vast majority of them coming from the arm of Manning. That would make for a 33.1% rate for virtually their entire career together, which would put them at #11 on this list. Wow.

In reality, this chart is just a fun way of looking at how much each team got out of its "top" receiver. For Berrian to manage 1,160 yards, as WhatIfSports thinks, though, Vikings passers would have to manage just over 3,200 yards in the air to get to Indy's 36.1% rate from last year -- possible, but unlikely. With the running game as good as it is and the potential emergence of Sidney Rice, Berrian probably won't put up those kind of numbers, but he should be good enough to get us out of the bottom five.

What to expect from Bernard Berrian

Hopefully, it won't be a lot of drops, though that perceived flaw in his skills has probably been overexaggerated. Still, Vikings fans are expecting a lot of Bernard Berrian in 2008 and beyond, perhaps more than should be expected from a fifth-year player who has yet to notch his first 1,000-yard season. Granted, he moves from possibly the worst quarterback situation in the league (Chicago) to -- well, not a great QB situation, but one with at least an inkling of hope for improvement. (And, as much as I get on some people, Brad Childress included, for being too optimistic about the Vikings' passing game, there's a difference between being optimistic and being outright delusional.)

WhatIfSports predicts a very nice 1,160 yards and 8 TDs for 2008 for Berrian, but is that just wishful thinking? The Vikings haven't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Nate Burleson in 2004. In fact, no Viking has even caught 700 yards through the air in the past three years. Why will Berrian break the 1,000-yard plateau -- cruise by it, in fact, according to WhatIfSports -- while the Vikings still have a shaky QB situation and a world-class running game? And, even if his QB situation was poor in Chicago, what reason is there to believe that Berrian will step it up in Minnesota?

To answer that last question, I'll return again to the Historical Data Dominator and look for seasons by fourth-year receivers with stats similar to Berrian's 71 catches for 951 yards. Specifically, I'll look for fourth-year players with 66 to 76 catches (five in each direction) and 900 to 1,000 yards (almost exactly 50 in each direction -- you'll forgive me for wanting to keep things round).

In addition to Berrian's 2007, six players fell within these boundaries since 1978, and it's a decent mix. Two of the six players (T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donte Stallworth) are still active. One (Andre Reed) should be in the Hall of Fame. Another (Sterling Sharpe) probably would be if not for a freak neck injury that ended his career. Then there's O.J. McDuffie and Jeff Graham. Meh.

Let's take a look at what these six players did in their first season after achieving their Berrian-like numbers:

Stallworth (2006): 38 catches, 725 yards, 5 TD
Houshmandzadeh (2005): 78 catches, 956 yards, 7 TD
McDuffie (1997): 76 catches, 943 yards, 1 TD
Graham (1995): 81 catches, 1,302 yards, 4 TD
Sharpe (1992): 108 catches, 1,461 yards, 13 TD
Reed (1989): 88 catches, 1,312 yards, 9 TD

That's rather promising. Stallworth regressed, but injuries played a part, and, while the window of opportunity is closing, he still has a chance to be considered something more than a mediocre first-round draft pick. Houshmandzadeh and McDuffie essentially repeated their fourth-year numbers, numbers we would probably be happy to get from a Vikings receiver these days. McDuffie actually had 90 catches and 1,050 yards in 1998, his sixth year, giving him a fairly consistent three-year stretch.

Graham, Sharpe, and Reed, meanwhile, blew away expectations in their fifth seasons. For Graham, it was his career year -- he would never again top 1,000 yards in a season -- and even Reed never topped 1,312 yards, though he played 11 more seasons. Sharpe, as Vikings fans are probably well aware, had two more great seasons with the Packers (totaling 206 receptions in 1993-94) before his injury.

Average those six seasons and you get 1,117 yards on 78 catches with 6.5 TDs, and that's with Stallworth missing some time. It's a small sample size, granted, but those numbers seem about in line with most predictions of Berrian's 2008 production. Is that about what we should expect from Berrian?

Well...Sharpe and Reed had Brett Favre and Jim Kelly throwing to them, and even Jeff Graham had Erik Kramer's crazy 1995 (29 TDs) backing him up. Stallworth had Donovan McNabb, Housh Carson Palmer, and McDuffie (an admittedly aging) Dan Marino. With the exception of Kramer, all of those men are or have a shot (or in Favre's case a lock) at being in the Hall of Fame; Tarvaris Jackson ain't quite on their level, to put it politely.

If I had to bet, I'd say Berrian will probably clock in with something right around 1,000 yards -- maybe 50 above or below -- and that's assuming the Vikings don't run it 40 times a game (which they probably should but probably won't). Still, he'll be an improvement over the Bobby Wades and Troy Williamsons that have suited up for the team in recent years.

And at the very least, he should break that 700-yard mark.

Does Bernard Berrian have "hands of Williamson"?

To look at the comments regarding the Bernard Berrian signing, they seem to exhibit one of two opinions:

a) This is a great move for the Vikings that will vitalize a moribund passing game; or
b) Bernard Berrian couldn't catch a cold in International Falls in January.

And, somewhat predictably, most of the "a" responses seem to come from Vikings fans while most of the "b" responses come from Bears fans. The comments on SN.com's story about the signing fall pretty handily along these lines. Having not watched a tremendous amount of Berrian's play, it seems that a lot of Bears' fans' rancor comes from Berrian dropping a few crucial balls, with the most damning testimony saying that he's no step up from stonehands Troy Williamson, in terms of the ability to catch the ball. The only good thing most people can agree on is that Berrian is an upgrade over the receivers the Vikings currently have, which is faint praise indeed.

Of course, fans always remember anecdotal evidence more than they do overall performance -- catch 10 passes in a game, great, but drop that go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter and you're a bum. It could be that Berrian's had a game or two like that, souring many Bears fans on him and, despite their lack of depth at the position (Devin Hester and...uh...), not raising too many concerns about the signing.

It's tough to use anything but anecdotal evidence to rate a player's "hands"; the closest we can get is probably target stats, an imprecise measurement that simply divides the number of catches made by a receiver by the number of times a pass was thrown to him. Sounds good, until you look at some of the flaws.

Notably, deep threats are likely to have a worse target percentage than short receivers. It's harder to reel in a 50-yard bomb than it is to catch a 5-yard out. A top-of-the-line receiver might also get doubled more if he doesn't have a good complementary receiver to take some of the pressure off.

There are other issues, too. Say Receiver A has 60 catches on 120 targets (50%) and Receiver B has 60 on 100 (60%). This doesn't automatically mean that B is better than A. Receiver A might also have gotten open more often, making him a more frequent target of his quarterback. Receiver B's quarterback might also have been better than A's, aiming more accurate passes his way. Finally, target stats are also completely unofficial, and compilation numbers can vary depending on the source.

Some of these concerns can be reduced a bit, at least in terms of comparing Williamson to Berrian. Both are fast receivers and are considered "deep threats" and neither had particularly good quarterbacking. Also, neither man was his team's primary receiver so they probably weren't doubled a tremendous amount of the time.

With all that in mind, and with all the dubiousness of targetting stats laid before us, take a look at this page. You'll have to select "Week: YTD" and "Year: 2007" to see the target stats for 2007. Once you've done that, you can do a basic comparison of Berrian and Williamson (or any other receiver). Here are the numbers:

Bernard Berrian
Targets: 112
Receptions: 69
Percentage: 62%

Troy Williamson
Targets: 40
Receptions: 19
Percentage: 47%

As mentioned above, compilation of target stats is iffy, which is clear to see here -- Berrian had 71 receptions in 2007, while Williamson had 18. Even taking that inaccuracy into account, and assuming that the target numbers are off a little, it's clear that Berrian caught a significantly higher percentage of passes that were sent his way in 2007.

As for the other Viking receivers, Bobby Wade managed a 69% conversion rate in 2007, Sidney Rice 63%, and Robert Ferguson 54%. Berrian's Bears teammate, Muhsin Muhammed, managed only a 53% conversion rate. Other notable receivers who had a target percentage equal to or worse than Berrian in 2007 include Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards, and Plaxico Burress. Several of those men suffer from the "no real #2" issue mentioned above, and all were at least their teams' primary deep threat, but was it really that different for Berrian?

I've also managed to find some 2006 target numbers that paint Berrian in a less positive light, with only a 50.5% conversion rate (compared to Williamson's 48.7%), and if you select "2005" on the FootballDiehards page, you'll see Berrian with a 52% rate (on only 13 catches) and Williamson at 46% (on 24 catches). Adding it all up gives you a 55.9% (133-238) for Berrian and 47.7% (80-168) for Williamson. On the bright side, Berrian showed improvement in 2007, while Williamson never showed even a remote uptick in percentage over his three years with the Vikings, and Berrian posted higher percentages than Williamson every year. In short, I don't think that Bernard Berrian will make anyone forget Cris Carter's amazing, highlight-reel catches, but he won't be as bad as Williamson, either.

Vikings get Berrian (oh, and Tapeh)

The Vikings made another big free-agent splash this weekend, inking Bernard Berrian, probably the top wide-receiver available in free agency, to a six-year, $42 million dollar deal, with $16 million of it guaranteed. This is the deal so far in free agency and it will, for better or worse, make a major impact on the team for years to come.

As I mentioned in Friday's post, Berrian is the top wide receiver available despite not yet registering a 1,000-year season in his career. Also, at 27, he's a touch older than one would like and may not have the durability to finish out his contract in productive fashion. And he's only had three 100-yard games in his career yet will be paid like one of the top wide receivers in the league.

Now I'll find some good news. First of all, Berrian will be a major improvement over any of the wideouts the Vikings currently employ, though that's not too difficult. His 71 catches last year are 17 more than the top Viking receive (Bobby Wade) from 2007 and even his 51 grabs in 2006 would have nearly put him at #1 on the Vikings' 2006 squad (Travis Taylor, 57). And all this comes with a quarterback situation that, at the least, was as confused and disjointed as the Vikings' over the last two years.

And Berrian has speed. His career 14.6 yards per reception for his career shows that, and, even though he only managed 13.4 last year, that still would have ranked him #1 on the 2007 Vikings among players with at least 20 catches. I know what you're saying now: "Hey, wasn't Troy Williamson fast?" Yes he was, to the tune of a 13.5 yard-per-catch average, a full yard less than Berrian. And, while I can't comment on precisely how good Berrian's hands are, I don't recall seeing too many highlights (or lowlights) of him making crucial drops on easy passes. In his three years with the Vikings, Williamson made 79 catches, only 8 more than Berrian had in 2007 alone.

There's little question that Berrian is good; the debate centers around on whether he's that good. Is he worth $7 million/year? On the bright side, this is the NFL, so there's always wiggle room on that front. Only $16 million of the deal is guaranteed, so, if Berrian flops, the team won't be on the hook for too much money. Plus, the team had the cap room, so why not use it?

Finally, it could be argued that no team needed a big-time wide receiver than the Vikings. Berrian won't transform the team into the next coming of the Greatest Show on Turf but if teams have to respect his speed and deep-play threat, that should open up more holes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor and teams won't be able to crowd the box to stuff either player. It's still questionable as to whether Tarvaris Jackson will be able to get the ball to Berrian with any consistency, but it sure beats throwing deep to Williamson and Robert Ferguson.

In the end, the Vikings probably did overpay for Berrian's services. Even if he plays out his entire contract, he's unlikely to put up Pro Bowl-caliber numbers for much of that stretch. But by addressing the team's #1 off-season weakness while not significantly impacting the team's ability to pursue other free agents (and sign draft picks), Zygi Wilf and the rest of Vikings management has to be applauded for at least taking what appear to be the right steps.

* In less splashy news, the Vikings also signed former Golden Gopher fullback Thomas Tapeh, late of the Philadelphia Eagles, to a five-year, $6 million deal on Friday. Tapeh will probably take over lead-blocking chores from Tony Richardson, who is an unrestricted free agent. Tapeh, who used to open holes for Marion Barber in college and for Brian Westbrook in the pros, is also eight years younger than Richardson and, while not the same caliber of receiver, might actually be a better runner and blocker, at least at this stage of their respective careers.

I like this move. It giving the team a hometown talent (sort of -- Tapeh was born in Liberia) for the fans to cheer and pairs Adrian Peterson up with a man who can (hopefully) serve as his "bodyguard" for years to come, like Lorenzo Neal and LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers. While consistency on the offensive line is important, I think that the camaraderie of a fullback and tailback is often overlooked in the NFL. For the tailback, it helps to know what the man in front of you is capable of and how he'll block for you, and for the fullback, it helps to work with the same kind of back, day in and day out, so you'll know when he likes to cut it in, when he likes to bounce it outside, and so on. The Vikings needed to find a replacement for the aging Richardson and in doing so, found a very good blockade-runner for their most valuable player, at a reasonable price.

* And in case you missed it, Randy Moss is entertaining offers from anyone -- and wants to reunite with Daunte Culpepper. The Bears are minus their top two wide receivers (Berrian and Muhsin Muhammed) and don't have any long-term plans at quarterback. Do ya think? Nahhhh...

Vikings have a new safety, look for help elsewhere

When the Vikings traded Randy Moss to the Oakland Raiders before the 2005 draft, they acquired linebacker Napoleon Harris and the Raiders' first-round draft pick, number seven overall. Harris did nothing of consequence with the team and that #7 pick was used to draft Troy Williamson, who wowed scouts at the combine with a 4.32-second 40-yard dash but was otherwise virtually unknown. (When it became obvious that the Vikings would take a wide receiver with their pick, I favored USC wide receiver Mike Williams as a safer pick but, as bad as Williamson has been, Williams has been worse, notching just 44 catches in three seasons.)

Now, all the Vikings have to show for dealing Moss is a rumored sixth-round draft pick from the Jacksonville Jaguars, which would figure to be around the 200th pick in next month's draft. Last year's sixth-round picks -- all of them -- had 22 receptions in 2007 and that includes a guy who's listed as a linebacker. Not exactly fair compensation, but we're past the point of wondering whether Randy Moss or Mike Tice should have been shipped out after the 2004 season, when Moss said that he "wasn't sure" Tice was the head coach for him. Hint: It probably wasn't Moss.

But the free-agency period has begun, and there's a lot of talk of who the Vikings might get to fill the void at wide receiver and other positions, some of which might come true very soon.

I don't give the rumormongering from Yahoo much thought most of the time, but saying that Zygi Wilf has flown to California to court Bernard Berrian does seem like a bit more than your run-of-the-mill "Team A is interested in Player B" garbage they spew out regularly. The last paragraph, in particular, throws a ton of names out there, from Sage Rosenfels to Thomas Tapeh to Justin Smith, but it's the Berrian deal that seems most likely to develop into something more, and as soon as tonight, if true. SI.com confirms the Vikings apparent interest in Berrian and their desire to sign him quickly.

The stated terms of the deal worry me, though. $6-8 million per season for a wide receiver who hasn't even generated a 1,000-yard campaign yet? Granted, catching balls from Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton will depress anyone's numbers, but is Tarvaris Jackson that much better?

* According to the SI story, Smith and Madieu Williams could also be wearing purple very soon, filling voids at defensive end and safety, respectively. The Vikings have $35 million of cap room, the fifth-highest total in the league, so they can afford to overspend a bit and still have plenty left for signing draft picks and second-tier free agents.

(And...just as I write this, the story comes up on ESPN.com about Williams signing a six-year, $33 million contract with the Vikings, making him one of the highest-paid safeties in the league.)

* Even if all these deals get made, that will still leave a semi-gaping hole at one position for the team: quarterback. The team cut Kelly Holcomb earlier this week, and Derek Anderson, the closest there was to a top free-agent QB, has already re-signed with the Browns, leaving the Vikings to pick from a lackluster group of free agents that includes Trent Green, Quinn Gray, Cleo Lemon, and Byron Leftwich, or to work a trade for Rosenfels or J.P. Losman if they want to find a complement to or replacement for T-Jack. And, unlike last year, I won't be stumping for the team to pick up David Carr, who was recently released by the Panthers.

* Another interesting free agent is defensive end Jevon Kearse, recently released by the Eagles. Though he struggled with injuries in his Philadelphia career, and only managed 3.5 sacks in 14 games in 2007, he might be an interesting third-down option if he's willing to sign a low-cost, incentive-laden contract. Even with last year's disappointing season, Kearse averaged about half a sack per game in his Philadelphia career and if the 31-year-old is only counted on for 20-25 snaps a game, it might be that he could still be effective.

If you want to keep track of all the free-agent activity, I suggest either SportingNews.com's free-agent tracker or the one located on ESPN.com. It should be an interesting weekend!

Vikings' have several wide-receiver options

It's no secret that the Vikings' passing game in 2007 was subpar. Certainly, Tarvaris Jackson was in over his head most of the year, but one can't ignore the inadequacy of his wide receivers, as well. With Coach Brad Childress seemingly committed to keeping Jackson under center, and most potential free-agent replacements probably coming at too high a price (Donovan McNabb) or being not much of an improvement (Rex Grossman), Jackson will probably be the Vikings' quarterback going into 2008. Even if the Vikings spend a high draft pick on a QB, it's unlikely that such a player would be ready to start until at least mid-season, if that early.

Wide receiver, on the other hand, is a different story, both in terms of available veterans and in terms of potential rookie replacements, not to mention the team's probable willingness to replace what they've got at the position already. Of the team's top three receivers from 2007, only Sidney Rice appears to have a long-term future with the team. Robert Ferguson and Bobby Wade were short-term fixes, Aundrae Allison seems better suited to kick-return duties, and the less said about Troy Williamson the better. So, how can the Vikings best bolster their wide-receiving corps?

Some draft boards have Cal's DeSean Jackson going to the Vikings with their #17 pick in the first round. He's fairly small (6', 172 lbs) but has game-breaking speed, which might be a good fit for the Vikings. Jackson could hit him on short passes and watch him turn five-yard gains into 30 yards. Other mock drafts have us taking Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma with that pick. While not quite as fast as Jackson, he's got great size (6'4", 217 lbs), and his 40 times at the combine could radically alter his draft stock. If the Vikings wait until the second round or later, there are lots of good prospects, like Limas Sweed (Texas), Mario Manningham (Michigan), and Harry Douglas (Louisville), all of whom would look good in purple and definitely bolster a weak receiving corps.

For more immediate help, though, the Vikings will have to turn to free agency or, in one interesting case, a trade. Here are some of the top free-agent wide receivers out there and one non-free agent who's received a lot of talk recently:

Randy Moss (New England). Let's be realistic. Randy Moss is going to get a huge payday, and it won't be from Minnesota. And it probably wouldn't be worth it, considering our quarterbacking situation.

Bernard Berrian (Chicago). Despite not yet owning a 1,000-yard receiving season, Berrian is probably the top free-agent WR on the market the Vikings can realistically expect to land. He's a deep threat (14.7 yards per catch career) and a bit old (27) but represents the best option for an immediate upgrade to the position.

Bryant Johnson (Arizona). Johnson's an interesting case. He's lived in the shadows of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for most of his career as a Cardinal but has been very consistent, with seasons of 35, 49, 40, 40, and 46 catches. He would probably put up solid numbers as a starter and might even qualify as the #1 receiver in the Vikings' offense.

Patrick Crayton (Dallas). Crayton emerged as a solid complement to Terrell Owens in Dallas this season, taking over for the injured Terry Glenn. Granted, Tarvaris Jackson is no Tony Romo, and nobody will cover the Vikings' other receivers the way defenders shadowed TO, so if Crayton gets his payday somewhere other than in Dallas, he probably won't put up numbers like he did in 2007 (50 catches, 697 yards, 7 TDs).

Chad Johnson (Cincinnati). Here's the wild card. Does Johnson want to be traded or doesn't he? If he does, I think the Vikings would be wise to inquire about his price. Yes, he's arrogant and at times immature, but the offense could probably benefit from a character like Johnson and, even if Jackson can't get the ball to him regularly, defenders will have to respect his ability, and that will open holes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. His age (30) is a concern, and who knows if he'd be willing to suit up for a run-oriented offense like the Vikings', but at least one part of his transition would be smooth -- the Vikings don't have anyone on their roster who wears ocho-cinco.

There are, of course, other free-agent wide receivers to be had, like Muhsin Muhammed, Andre Davis, David Patten, and Drew Carter, but they don't offer much of an improvement over the team's current crop of wideouts. Nearly every season, the team has made one big free-agent splash, from Antoine Winfield to Darren Sharper to Chester Taylor to Fred Smoot, and with room under the cap (as usual), hopefully they'll take a shot at refreshing a badly depleted wide-receiver corps that's in desperate need of a playmaker to take the pressure off the running game.

(Don't forget to answer poll to the right!)