Letting it sink in

After a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like Brett Favre. Or maybe not.

This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. Anything. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted right now. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, Brad Childress won't set a deadline for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)

Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. Ryan Longwell is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even Troy Aikman didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when Troy Aikman thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up Reggie Bush on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.

No, the blame has to go around to guys like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.

It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the 1999 loss to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.

But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.

Wait 'til next year.

NFC Championship Game Facts

This year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl will be either a team that hasn't been to the big game in 33 years or a team that has never been there. Either way, that's kinda cool.

The most points ever scored in an NFC Championship Game is 66, when the 49ers beat the Cowboys 38-28 in January 1995. There's a reasonable chance that will be exceeded on Sunday.

Only the Cowboys (14), 49ers (12), and Rams (9) have been in more NFC Championship Games than the Vikings (8). The 49ers and Cowboys have squared off five times in the game.

Road teams are 13-26 in the NFC Championship Game.

The last time Brett Favre was in an NFC Championship Game (1998), Drew Brees was a sophomore at Purdue and Percy Harvin was nine years old.

Chester Taylor had more combined rush-receive yards (727) in 2009 than Reggie Bush (725).

I am officially tired of typing "NFC Championship Game."

For the first time, Vikings celebrate Favre winning in Green Bay

Apart from a third quarter that had me swearing like George Carlin, the Vikings dominated the Packers in Lambeau Sunday, putting another lopsided number on the scoreboard in a 38-26 road victory that puts them at 7-1 going and in solid command of their division going into the bye. Brett Favre was nearly flawless, Percy Harvin had several big returns and a great TD catch-and-run, Adrian Peterson had just enough explosiveness in him to make a difference, and the defense...well, the less said about that third quarter, the better.

I figured going into the game that one of two things would happen: that Brett Favre would have an amazing performance and add to his improbable highlight reel that includes his Monday Night win after his father's death and his 6 TD game with the Jets last year; or that he would have an absolutely horrid performance -- at least three interceptions and possibly an injury, in a bit of karmic justice that would make Earl Hickey cringe. Fortunately, it was the former.

On the other side of the ball, the absence of Antoine Winfield can't fully explain the poor coverage, poorer tackling, and generally poor effort by what is rapidly becoming one of the more porous defenses in the league. We expect Benny Sapp and Karl Paymah to suck, but when Chad Greenway is missing tackles and Jared Allen hardly sniffs the quarterback for a whole half, something is wrong. And, while not a defensive play, let's pretend what Brian Robison did on that kickoff return never happened.

Against teams with a pulse (discounting Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis), the defense has given up 24, 23, 31, 13 (I'll discount those two return TDs in the Pittsburgh game), and 26 points. Elite defenses don't get routinely shredded by opposing quarterbacks, and right now -- and arguably, all season -- the Vikings have not had an elite defense. They have an exciting defense, one that picks up sacks in bunches and is pretty good at forcing turnovers, but that doesn't mean they're great. This unit definitely needs work during the bye week; Leslie Frazier's got his work cut out for him.

And I'll take a little time to gripe about the officiating again. On the play when the Vikings were called for roughing the quarterback, the defensive end was clearly held by the right tackle. So, not only was it a horrible call on the roughing, but also a horrible non-call on the holding. Even Troy Aikman, he of many concussions, thought the roughing call was lame. That should say something.

In the end, though, a win's a win, Green Bay has been swept, and the Vikings hold a commanding lead in their division. Even if the Packers beat the Bucs next week (likely), they'll be two games back for real and, thanks to the sweep, effectively three back. The Bears host the Cardinals next week, which is hardly a gimme, so they will be two (if they win) or three (if they lose) back after next week.

And the Vikings' next three opponents coming out of the bye? Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago, all at home. 3-0, or at least 2-1, over that run is highly probable. In fact, the Vikings don't even need to leave Minnesota again for over a month, not until a December 6 contest in Arizona. Home cooking sure tastes good when you're 7-1.

Fun with numbers (again)

I haven't had much of a chance to play around with Pro-Football-Reference.com's new Play Index tools, but their recent blog post about week 1 stats inspired me to examine the Vikings' week 1 win over Cleveland in more detail:

* The Vikings have had 49 Week 1 games. Adrian Peterson's 180 yards is the highest total for a Viking running back in the team's first game. In fact, AP, holds three of the top 10 rushing totals for the franchise in Week 1 -- not bad, considering he's been in the league three years.

* In fact, only 13 players overall have rushed for 180 or more yards in Week 1. You all remember Norm Bulaich, don't you?

* Only three Vikings have had three rushing TDs in Week 1, as AP did, and only six have scored three TDs in Week 1 overall.

* On the other side of the coin, Brett Favre had the 45th most passing yards from a Vikings QB (in 49 games) in Week 1. Tarvaris Jackson checks in at #36 and #40.

* On the bright side, only 16 Vikings QBs (with at least 10 attempts) have gone without an interception in Week 1, as Favre did Sunday.

* OK, it's a little artificial, but no Viking has ever has ever had a stat line like Percy Harvin did Sunday in Week 1. It's fairly common overall, though.

Vikings enforce Brown-out

Now that's how you start a season.

Adrian Peterson had a great day, with a highlight-reel 64-yard run to put the effective nail in the coffin, and the defense stuffed the Browns' offense until a late, garbage-time TD. The quarterbacking and special teams? Well, that's another matter. But first the good.

Adrian Peterson. What more is there to say? Even if you want to stick AP with the "inconsistent" label, he had 116 yards on 24 carries, a 4.8 average, if you take away his 64-yarder. And boy, was that run a thing of beauty, especially the part where he casually threw aside the last Cleveland defender and then turned on the jets to outrun everyone to the end zone. Right now, there's definitely nobody in the NFL with his combination of strength and speed, and there might not have ever been anyone with his physical skills. And to think some idiots wanted the Vikings to take Brady Quinn in the 2007 draft...

("Some idiots" should include a link to my post on my SportingNews blog dating back to the '07 draft where I expounded just that idea. But SN is unavailable due to heavy traffic related to the start of the NFL season. Yet another good reason why I don't use that blog any more.)

The defense. Apart from that late Cleveland TD, when mostly backups were in the game, the defense allowed just 188 yards, forced three fumbles and a pick, and sacked Quinn five times. This unit looked lights out in the preseason and, apart from a 73-yard Cleveland drive in the second quarter, the first unit stymied the Browns all day long. (But see below.)

The rookies. I may be coming around on Percy Harvin. With Bernard Berrian out, he was practically our #1 receiver, and while his numbers -- 3 catches for 36 yards (and a TD) and 2 rushes for 22 yards -- weren't huge, he had that "exciting" look every time he touched the ball. His 33-yard average on three kick returns wasn't too shabby, either.

Phil Loadholt also looked good at right tackle. I'll admit to not paying too much attention to line play, but he did nothing to embarrass himself (unlike Ryan Cook most of last year) and when I did pay attention to him, he seemed to handle his man cleanly. A key factor in my appreciation for Percy Harvin will be the play of Phil Loadholt, to make me feel better about the team passing on Michael Oher in the first round. So far, so good.

And while he's not a rookie, how about Darius Reynaud? Oh my goodness, we might have a kick returner and a punt returner! And to think we gave up on Maurice Hicks...

Those were the good. Then there's the not-so-good:

Punt coverage. Let's get this one out of the way. Really, apart from that second-quarter TD return by Josh Cribbs, who's maybe the best return man in the game, the coverage units did pretty well. Cribbs' other two punt returns netted exactly zero total yards, and he managed just 23.3 yards on six kickoff returns. But hoo boy, did it seem like more of the same after that TD. I'll still hold my breath every time Chris Kluwe boots one...

The rush defense. OK, so they weren't exactly shredded, but how on earth does Jamal freakin' Lewis manage 5.2 yards per carry against us? Unacceptable!

Him. Wasn't Brett Favre supposed to stretch the field and keep the defense from stacking the line against Adrian Peterson (who never had any good rushing games with our usual assortment of medicore QBs)? Memory may fail me, but I can only recall about three or four passes that went longer than 10 yards downfield, with a lot of dump-offs and short passes and way too many sacks (4) for the number of dropbacks (25). I'd say two of the sacks weren't Favre's fault, but on the other two (the first two, if I recall), he had plenty of time.

Now, there are a few legitimate reasons for Favre's mediocre play. One is, as previously mentioned, the lack of Bernard Berrian. And Brian Billick (we'll get back to him in a minute) brought up a semi-good point when he mentioned that the reason Favre took one of his sacks was so that he wouldn't toss up one of his well-known no-chance passes for a sure-fire turnover. Finally, with Peterson running the ball like he did and the defense playing as well as it did, Favre didn't need to take big risks and go down the field with any risky plays; to his credit, I didn't see any of those "oh no"-type passes from Favre.

But if he's not going to provide an extra dimension to the passing game, why is Brett Favre here? Did he do anything today that Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels couldn't have done? We'll never know, of course, but if all we wanted from a QB is 110 passing yards per game, we sure didn't need to cough up $25 million for it. Last year, the Vikings' lowest net passing yards in a single games (subtracting sacks) was 104. Today, it was 85. This is progress?

(And going back to Brian Billick...I believe he had three "That's just Brett being Brett"s, two "He's only been here a month"s, and two or three "He needs to work with his receivers"es. Let the excuses begin continue!)

Cleveland's probably not a good team. Still, it's good to know that even when the QB is barely contributing, the Vikings can put up 34 points. It was a team effort -- offense, defense, and special teams -- and if the team looks like this all year long, I won't be disappointed.

Monday night reactions

I'd say that was actually a little better than a b), with Brett Favre showing his usual zing on passes while not making any critical mistakes. His sacks were largely the fault of the offensive line and his one near-interception came about because of a great play by a Houston defender.

Naturally, however, Favre's ex-QB coach and MNF Official Cheerleader Jon Gruden couldn't assign any blame to Favre for a second-quarter pass that glanced off the fingertips of Percy Harvin in the back of the end zone. Gruden twice said that Harvin had to catch the "perfectly thrown" ball, while ignoring the possibility that, instead of Harvin reaching out another three inches, perhaps Favre could have thrown it three inches less. Truthfully, neither player was at fault -- it was a well-thrown ball and Harvin was grabbed ever-so-slightly by the defender -- but it's not like Harvin's play was an egregious error by the receiver.

Then there was "the hit." There was doubtless no malicious intent on Favre's part, but there are a few problematic things to consider:

1) “I will be 40 years old in October and (was) weed-eating 13 days ago,” Favre said. “I wasn’t thinking about throwing blocks.”

Putting aside any obvious "weed" jokes, this is exactly what I don't want to hear from Favre or anyone associated with bringing him in. Why weren't you in training camp 13 days ago? Were you not thinking about avoiding interceptions? Would you use that if you threw one? Let the media come up with the excuses, Brett.

2) As the analysts pointed out, near-40-year-old quarterbacks shouldn't be throwing a block in a preseason game, especially when they supposedly have cracked ribs. Oh yeah, he's just having fun out there.

So, yeah. Three quarters of preseason football against a mediocre defense isn't enough to get me fully on the Favre bandwagon, but I might be holding back the trigger on the TNT to blow the whole thing up. This week.

The non-news update

Two things happened in Vikingland over the weekend. One is important but not unusual, and the other is probably even less important but will have the strong likelihood of erecting mountains where molehills once stood.

* Percy Harvin agreed to a five-year deal with the Vikings today, after missing just two days of training camp. While it's certainly good to have Harvin in camp, his lateness in securing a contract hardly registers as a blip on the notability radar. All the usual pleasantries are brought up in the article ("Coach Brad Childress has said that it was important for Harvin...to get into camp as soon as possible"; "Segal [Harvin's agent] said his client was ready to hit the field immediately") but Harvin's participated in all the team's other off-season activities so his absence will have no effect on his performance this season and beyond. Furthermore, 11 of 32 first-round picks have yet to sign deals with the teams that drafted them, all of them higher picks than Harvin.

I've been skeptical of Harvin, partially due to his off-the-field issues and partially because I lack the confidence to believe in Brad Childress and Darrell Bevell's ability to use him properly. And there have been legitimate rookie holdouts in the past. But if Harvin does have a subpar year, it won't be because of this insignificant "holdout."

* Then there's the story that won't die. This article, which is the top story on ESPN's NFL page, cites the usual contempt the media has for the Vikings' quarterback situation, lamenting the absence of Brett Favre, who we all know would have led the Vikings to a 17-0 record in the regular season and won the Super Bowl twice in the same year. It was posted at 1 p.m. Saturday.

Which is about the same time I heard news of this. And yes, for the first time in my life, I got legitimately worried about Tarvaris Jackson's health.

It wasn't because of the severity of the injury. It's supposed to be a grade 1 (least severe) MCL sprain, meaning that, at most, Jackson will probably miss a little practice and then be back in action. The article even says, "Jackson missed the Vikings’ practice on Saturday night. If he can’t go for the team’s lone practice on Sunday, [Sage] Rosenfels and [John David] Booty will get all the work." Can't be all that serious if they're not even sure he's going to miss any time.

But why should that stop ESPN from reigniting the speculation that nobody wants to hear? When I watched the evening SportsCenter, here's how the lead story went, in a conversation between the lead anchor and a reporter on the scene at Vikings' camp (sorry for not remembering the names):

Anchor: What's the word on Jackson's health?

Reporter: They're saying it's a grade 1 MCL sprain. [10 seconds on how minor that is]

Anchor: I have to ask -- have there been any phone calls to Hattiesburg from Viking camp?

Reporter: Oh, I bet there have been plenty!

Ha ha. I changed the channel at that point. Because you all know that, if Tarvaris Jackson develops an ingrown toenail or Sage Rosenfels gets indigestion, it'll be time to panic and call up ol' #4.

If a legitimate injury happens to both Jackson and Rosenfels, then I would actually be a little more on board with the notion of calling up you-know-who. Since that hasn't happened, well, there's not much to report.

Oh mercy, we got Percy

I had my heart set on an offensive lineman.

When Detroit passed on taking an offensive lineman with their #20 pick, I rejoiced. I didn't know exactly what Cleveland's needs were, but I was hopeful that they would pass on tackle Michael Oher. I was even hoping that, with their sudden receiver needs, that they'd take Percy Harvin, preventing the Vikings from doing so (which I knew they'd be tempted to do) and landing Oher, who was projected as going about 8-10 picks earlier.

Cleveland took Alex Mack, another potential target for the Vikings, but Oher was still on the board. ESPN highlighted Oher, who was in New York, waiting to be drafted. All the signs pointed to Oher. I thought positive...Oher, Oher, Oher...

"The Minnesota Vikings select Percy Harvin, wide receiver, Florida."

I nearly threw my phone into the TV.

I know what I said about not evaluating the draft too early and giving guys a chance to develop. But this is the worst possible situation for Harvin and the Vikings and has a strong possibility of developing into the biggest bust of the first round.

Harvin is like Reggie Bush, Jr. Meaning that he'll wow you here and there but won't be the kind of consistent performer you look for in a first-round pick. Bush is more flashy than he is great, averaging 3.7 yards per rush for his career and 7.5 per reception -- mediocre numbers for a running back, much less the #2 overall pick.

Harvin isn't Bush, per se, and though he's listed as a wide receiver, he actually had more rushes in college than receptions. That's probably due to his usage in Urban Meyer's spread offense, which has produced such NFL notables as Deshawn Wynn, Chad Jackson, Dallas Baker, Chris Leak, and Alex Smith. Yeah. Good luck to the team that drafts Tim Tebow next year -- you're going to need it.

Still, you look at the way Sean Payton utilizes Bush in New Orleans and figure that there might be a way for an inventive coach and innovative offensive coordinator to use Harvin in a way that would contribute to a high-powered, attack-oriented offense.

If only we had any of those.

Harvin's also got the fabled "character issues"; he failed a drug test at the combine, when you know you're going to be tested (ESPN said that he was either "stupid" or "had a real problem," neither of which are desirable). Brad Childress apparently sat down with him earlier this week and was convinced that's all behind him. And hey, we all trust Brad Childress's judgment, right?

The Vikings did address their offensive line issues in round two, taking mammoth (6'7 3/4". 332 lbs.) tackle Phil Loadholt out of Oklahoma, who looks to be an awesome road-grader as a run blocker but could have trouble dealing with speedy defensive ends while protecting the pass.

Still, the success of this draft for the Vikings will undoubtedly ride on the success of Harvin in a purple uniform. With Oher taken one pick later by the Ravens, a lot of people (including me) will be comparing the career paths of the two and grading them against each other. In the shorter term, if Harvin even smells like a bust in 2009...well, maybe our next head coach will know what to do with him.