Letting it sink in

After a few days to absorb "the loss," I find that my opinion hasn't really changed much. The wound has healed slightly, and I'm moving on with my life. Just like Brett Favre. Or maybe not.

This paragraph, right here, will be the only thing I write from now until the start of the next season about whether I believe Brett Favre will return. My opinion: I don't know. Neither do you, and neither does he. We can all speculate, we can all guess, we can all read rumors, hear quotes, we can read on the Internet, hear on the radio, watch on ESPN, whatever. None of it means anything. Anything. Yes, he currently says it's unlikely he'll play again, but that's because he's tired, sore, and mentally exhausted right now. We've been through this before. By April, he'll be healed up and get that "itch" again and make some offhand comment to someone and then it'll be FavreWatch all over again. I'm willing to play out scenarios about the Vikings' quarterback situation going forward, and I'll include caveats about "If he returns," but all they'll be is speculation, just as if I was saying "If the Vikings draft a quarterback this year." It might happen, it might not. Until Week 1 of the 2010 season begins and Brett Favre is not suited up, then he is returning to play again. Until that time, I'm not interested in speculation. Really. Not at all. (In related news, Brad Childress won't set a deadline for Favre to return, which is like telling your boss that it's OK for him to take tomorrow off.)

Now that I've got all that out of my system, it pains me to admit that I can't really blame the NFC Championship Game loss on Saint Brett. Yes, those two interceptions, especially the one at the end of regulation were brutal, but even if he runs for a few yards on that play, as many have pointed out he could have, it would have left us with a 50-ish-yard field goal for the win. Ryan Longwell is certainly capable of making that in a dome, but it's not like Favre outright "lost us the game." He lost us a chance to win, yes, but probably no worse than the 50/50 chance we essentially had in overtime. I also don't blame the officiating crew who, despite some questionable calls in overtime, seemed pretty even-handed in dishing out the lousy calls all around, including a classic "roughing the Favre" penalty that even Troy Aikman didn't believe should have been called. Folks, when Troy Aikman thinks roughing the passer shouldn't be called, it ain't roughing the passer. And the Vikings' defense and special teams played surprisingly well, allowing just 257 yards from scrimmage and just one big kick return while completely bottling up Reggie Bush on punt returns. Even the playcalling was mostly good, if a little conservative late in the game.

No, the blame has to go around to guys like Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Bernard Berrian, for their stunning inability to hold on to the football. None of Peterson's official three fumbles were recovered by the Saints, though he was probably to blame for the fumble at the goal line on a botched handoff at the end of the first half. That, as well as Harvin's and Berrian's fumbles all were recovered inside the 10-yard-line (either the Saints' or the Vikings') and it's easy to see that avoiding just one of those plays would have made a huge difference in such a tight game. Avoid all three and the game is likely a blowout for the Vikings.

It's amazing, though, to realize that even with five turnovers and a -4 margin, the Vikings were still just one play away from winning, which stands as a tribute to their overall strong play in other areas. This stands in stark contrast to their last NFC Championship Game appearance, the infamous 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Giants in 2001. Even the agony of the 1999 loss to the Falcons seems more hurtful than this game, if only because we were supposed to win that one easily. This was a game on the road against a team with a superior offense and we practically dominated them. The manner of the loss is hurtful, but the loss itself seems less than unexpected.

But it's still a loss, and it's another gut-wrenching end to the season for the Vikings. I suppose I should be used to it by now. After all, statistically, only one out of 32 teams ever finishes the season the way it wants to, so the odds are always against us. But hope springs eternal, I suppose, and I'll be hoping again with the rest of you when September comes along.

Wait 'til next year.

NFC Championship Game: Overtime

Saints win the toss. C'mon, pick six...

They're making way too much of this "inexperienced kicker" thing.

14:52. Well, that's not an optimal return. And Cedric Griffin's hurt. Yay.

14:07. If the Saints want to run twice when we lose our starting corner, that's fine with me.

13:12. Oh Tyrell Johnson, if you were only skilled, you might have grabbed that deflection.

12:56. When you blitz like that and get no pressure, you're in trouble. And I don't think Devery Henderson was ever touched. Got away with one there.

12:06. Pierre Thomas almost lost the ball. Now, does he only get the spot from where he semi-lost it?

I hope we'll see Brett in Miami, too.

Yeah, that's tough to overturn. Well, they're at the 41 and need about 10 more to put it in semi-comfortable field goal range.

11:45. Flag? Oh, hell. The receiver was diving back for the ball himself, he wasn't interfered with! Very, very weak call.

11:40. Loss of four? I'll take that!

10:49. Gain of 12 over the middle. That'll just about do it. Or was that an incompletion? How about a review?

Strange things we've seen in this game: 6 Viking fumbles, Brett Favre making bad plays, and Brad Childress using a timeout smartly.

"The ruling on the field will stand." Dammit.

10:19. And here we go. 40-yard field goal attempt to win the game. Let's hope for a repeat of Antoine Winfield's blocked FG against the Saints last year.

And now, Brad Childress uses a timeout stupidly. All is right with the world.

10:15. Nope. 31-28 Saints.


Well, that's it. Amazing that we made as many mistakes as we did and still had a chance in the end. Good-bye Brett. I hate you slightly less than I did at the start of the season.

NFC Championship Game: Fourth Quarter

Somehow, I'm guessing the Saints will blitz.

14:53. I'd be happy enough with a Percy Harvin/Chester Taylor RB committee in this quarter.

14:10. Or maybe I wouldn't.

Seeing Favre limp around there worries me, though. He will never, ever take himself out of a game, no matter how much he's hurting. On the one hand, that's heroic, on the other, it can be really bad if he's too hurt to play effectively.

12:39. Third down and again, close but no sack. Touchdown. 28-21 Saints.

12:32. Is Favre rolling out really a good idea?

11:45. Peterson hit by -- yep, Darren Sharper.

11:17. Oh dear. We're starting to see Bad Brett. That should have been a pick.

11:05. I didn't think there was any chance that pass would work. Awesome catch by Bernard Berrian.

9:37. Oh. My. God. Time to break out the stick-um.

8:18. Head-up play by Brees, and could have been amazing for us.

On the bright side, all these fumbles by the Vikings means we aren't punting to Reggie Bush. (Hey, I'm reaching here...)

7:42. Last year, I was scared every time Tarvaris Jackson dropped back. That's how I feel now whenever Adrian Peterson -- or pretty much anyone else -- has the ball.

7:06. Big-time stiff-arm by Shiancoe!

6:29. Peterson juked a little too hard there, basically took himself down.

5:45. That could have been PI against Berrian or Porter, IMHO. Or maybe neither, after seeing the replay.

4:58. Now for some defense. Please, some defense. 28-28 tie.

4:52. Good kick coverage. That's the first step.

My fingers are actually trembling.

4:43. OMG sack! If only we could have recovered...

3:07. I think I'm more nervous on 3rd-and-18s than I am on 3rd-and-4s.

2:37. Two minutes, 37 seconds left. Time for a classic Favre drive.

I don't think even Katy perry gets me this excited.

1:55. Is this really the time to run the ball? We can't possibly be playing for overtime. Tell me we aren't playing for overtime.

1:43. Bernard Berrian is having the game of his life.

1:31. Perfect pass by Favre, perfect catch by Rice.

1:06. 33 yard line. That's just about in FG range!

0:19. Adrian, you can't stop and go here. Go forward, get two yards, if that's all you can do. It's fine, really. He just wants to hit a home run every play. And we really better pass on third down.

0:19. 12 men in the huddle? What is that?!

0:07. DO NOT THROW LATE OVER THE MIDDLE!

I mean, it's not like a 45- to 55-yard field goal would be automatic, but at least give it a chance! On to overtime...

NFC Championship Game: Third Quarter

These first-half stats are brought to you by Mass Effect 2.

14:49. I wish Commander Sheperd had been on the field. He/she would have actually tackled Courtney Roby better than Tyrell Johnson. Or maybe would have just shot him, depending on whether he/she was a paragon or a renegade.

14:04. And Pierre Thomas shakes off Pat Williams(!) for a six-yard gain to put the Saints in the red zone.

12:56. I'm surprised more teams don't use that extra lineman as a blocker. 21-14 Saints.

12:56. Yeah, that was a pretty bad call on that touchdown.

10:54. Naufahu Tahi is my hero!

10:20. And so is Visanthe Shiancoe!

9:37. Anthony Herrera whiffs on his block. Possibly because he was too tired from getting outside because he's really fat.

8:15. This is the Visanthe Shiancoe drive! (and a slight hold on the defender)

7:35. Adrian held on to that one. 21-21 tie.

Not that I think he shows favorites, but I wonder who Roger Goodell's favorite team is. He has to have one, right?

7:22. I think that's the first official "hit" on Drew Brees.

6:40. False start. Phew.

6:29. I always thought it was a rule that a punt returner never, ever goes inside the 10. Ever. But I've seen it seemingly a ton this year.

5:39. That's it. Take Adrian Peterson out of the game. Now.

4:09. That's a really dubious penalty. I used to call those Roughing the Favre when they were called against us and they made me crazy. And you know it's dubious when Troy Aikman thinks it's a bad call.

1:59. Triple coverage. Interception. Ack.

Addendum: He hit him below the waist! That's a penalty, dammit! A stupid penalty, but a penalty!

And the fourth quarter begins. With Tarvaris Jackson possibly under center. (And Katy Perry makes me feel dirty.)

NFC Championship Game: Second Quarter

14:33. Even Brett's earplugs are purple. How cute!

14:07. And here's Chris Myers with an update on the purple earplugs. That's some reporting!

13:29. And now, a punt. Hold me, I'm frightened.

13:21. Fair catch. Phew.

13:03. 3rd and 10, someone get a hand on Brees, and it's a 28-yard gain. Nothing infuriates me more than an almost-sack on third down.

11:00. When #64 goes in motion, you know it's a running play.

10:30. A touchdown on that drive seemed almost inevitable. 14-14 tie.

I ate about 2/3 of a pizza for dinner about an hour and a half ago. That's suddenly seeming like an unwise decision.

10:22. So maybe they don't always run when #64 goes in motion...

9:44. Brett Favre leads the league in fake-passes-followed-by-fake-handoff-followed-by-a-pass-es.

9:03. And Sidney Rice's arms grow to six feet long!

8:24. Adrian Peterson and Darren Sharper are joined at the hip today.

5:22. Lynell Hamilton isn't going to gain a yard on 3rd-and-1 against our defense. I mean, really.

4:29. Gratuitous Deanna Favre shot. She's in the stands? She couldn't get a box?

3:51. We are going to need more than 14 points against the Saints. We really are.

3:36. Oh, Ben Leber. I would have forgotten all the nasty things I said about you on the Pierre Thomas touchdown if you'd intercepted that pass.

3:28. 3rd and 1. Bet they don't give it to Lynell Hamilton.

2:44. Reggie Bush, meet Pat Williams.

2:07. So, when the Viking jumped into the neutral zone, why didn't the Saints snap it? That was the point!

I'm spending my downtime looking at pictures of Katy Perry. I think I like the one in the green bikini the best.

1:52. You can't advance a muff, and the whistle was blown. That's a penalty, Saints fans. The ball was dead.

1:38. Big third-down toss and catch by Berrian and Favre.

1:24. Brett's accuracy on downfield throws is...lacking. Berrian was wide open.

1:13. REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE!

0:56. Oh, phooey. And he had a nice hole to get to the end zone. Crap, crap, crap.

And that's the half. Back to Katy.

Stream of consciousness blogging: NFC Championship Game

It's like the comments section of a post, but only I'm invited.

Joe Buck calls the Superdome "the loudest building in football." He clearly forgot where he was last week.

14:50. The key to the Vikings' offense is, obviously, the early inclusion of Jim Kleinsasser.

13:34. There was a time when I would have been upset at four straight passes to start the game. Not any more.

11:35. That screen looked good until John Sullivan missed not one, but two defenders.

10:50. An Adrian Peterson sighting!

9:35. Whoop! Sorry about that, Darren Sharper! 7-0 Minnesota.

Six months ago, I hated the Brett Favre Sears commercials. Now I kinda like them. That's very, very depressing.

8:55. Really can't give Drew Brees that much time, even if it was incomplete.

7:51. K-Will almost tipped that one.

7:00. When Pat Williams jumps offsides, it should probably be a 10-yard penalty.

6:30. Missed tackle by Ben Leber = Saints touchdown. 7-7 tie.

On the other hand, those "tiny hands" Burger King commercials still freak me out.

6:15. OK, maybe they could run just a little bit.

6:11. Sure looked like there was contact...ah, there we go.

6:03. Bernard Berrian finds the spin button on his controller!

5:37. They call a personal foul on hitting Harvin, but not Favre? Uh...(amended: OK, so it wasn't)

4:20. Favre won't need a uniform if we play another game, he'll be purple all over.

2:53. That might have worked if Phil Loadholt wasn't 800 pounds.

2:11. Favre. Rice. TOUCHDOWN!!! 14-7 Minnesota.

2:05. Blatant hold against Tyrell Johnson on the kickoff return that goes uncalled.

1:27. Man, that reverse could have been outstanding!

And the Vikings take over at the 15 as we go to the second quarter. This post is already too long, so I'll start another!

Don't expect big numbers from Adrian Peterson

One final thought before the big game...

The common belief among just about everyone is that Adrian Peterson will finally have a big game, one he hasn't had in a while, against the Saints and their so-so rushing defense (4.49 yards per carry allowed, 26th in the league). Problem is, we've been waiting for AP to have that kind of day for over two months. He's only had one game with more than four yards per carry -- and that was just nine carries for 54 yards against the Giants in the last game of the season -- since running over the Lions to the tune of 18 carries for 133 yards (7.39 YPC) on Nov. 15.

In 17 games this year (including last week's playoff game against Dallas), Peterson has only faced one team that's allowed more than the Saints' 4.49 yards per carry during the regular season, and that was the Browns back in week one. However, five other teams averaged more than 4.4 YPC against, so those are probably comparable. The exact numbers are:

Opponent	AP YPC	Team YPC vs.
Cleveland	7.20	4.57
Arizona	1.46	4.49
Carolina	2.92	4.44
Detroit	6.13	4.42
Detroit	7.39	4.42
St. Louis	4.50	4.40
Chicago	3.40	4.33
Chicago	3.92	4.33
NY Giants	6.00	4.19
Seattle	3.42	4.15
Dallas	2.42	3.97
Cincinnati	3.73	3.94
Pittsburgh	3.83	3.87
San Francisco	4.47	3.64
Green Bay	2.20	3.59
Green Bay	3.88	3.59
Baltimore	6.50	3.43

Four of the "easiest" rush defenses AP faced -- Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago twice -- came in the second half of the season, and he averaged 1.46, 2.92, 3.40, and 3.92 yards per carry in those games. So I'm less than optimistic about the predictions regarding his "sure-fire" breakout game against the Saints today. If the Vikings win, it will likely be how they've won for most of the second half of the season: with the defense and on the arm of Brett Favre.

Hey, you don't suppose we could play the Lions again, do you?

NFC Championship Game Facts

This year's NFC representative in the Super Bowl will be either a team that hasn't been to the big game in 33 years or a team that has never been there. Either way, that's kinda cool.

The most points ever scored in an NFC Championship Game is 66, when the 49ers beat the Cowboys 38-28 in January 1995. There's a reasonable chance that will be exceeded on Sunday.

Only the Cowboys (14), 49ers (12), and Rams (9) have been in more NFC Championship Games than the Vikings (8). The 49ers and Cowboys have squared off five times in the game.

Road teams are 13-26 in the NFC Championship Game.

The last time Brett Favre was in an NFC Championship Game (1998), Drew Brees was a sophomore at Purdue and Percy Harvin was nine years old.

Chester Taylor had more combined rush-receive yards (727) in 2009 than Reggie Bush (725).

I am officially tired of typing "NFC Championship Game."

And then there were four

Well, you can forget about talks of "hot" teams and streaks and all that nonsense and how much impact it has on the playoffs. Teams on 11- and four-game winning streaks (San Diego and Dallas) lost, while the four teams that won this weekend were a combined 4-8 in their last three games of the regular season. Among them were the Vikings, who put a 34-3 throttling on the Dallas Cowboys to go to their first NFC Championship game since the 2000 season.

At this point, I don't even care that the Vikings are a pass-first team and are almost completely impotent at running the football. You'll still hear the usual tripe about how the Saints "must stop Adrian Peterson," but he's currently playing like, at best, the third-best player on the offense, behind Brett Favre and Sidney Rice. Even Chester Taylor looked better the few times he touched the ball on Sunday.

On the bright side, the Vikings will play a team next Sunday that was 22nd against the run in total yardage and 26th in yards per carry, and gave up a 70-yard run on the first play from scrimmage on yesterday's game. The Saints, in fact, were 18th in scoring defense and 25th in total yards allowed (the Vikings were ninth in both categories), and, for all their offensive firepower, scored just 40 points more than the Vikings, or less than a field goal per game. And while it is a road game, playing in a dome suits the Vikings just fine. This has all the potential makings of a high-scoring, but close game.

But that's the future. For now, I'm just basking in the heady glow of knowing that the Vikings are just 60 minutes away from their first Super Bowl in 33 years. And despite my better judgment, I'm actually believing it can happen.

Streakers come to Minnesota

If I was completely impartial and unbiased, I would probably say that the Vikings are the most likely home team to lose this weekend. Dallas has been hot for the last month, the Vikings have been hit-or-miss, and Tony Romo is that type of elusive quarterback who gives our pass rushers nightmares. (Remember the Jeff Garcia Tampa Bay game in 2008? Yeah, I've tried to forget it, too.) The oddsmakers would seem to agree with this, making the Vikings just a 2.5-point favorite, the lowest of all the home teams.

Fortunately, I'm not impartial and unbiased. Well, I am, and I do think the Vikings will struggle, but the team that I think will really have troubles this week is New Orleans because they've struggled even worse than the Vikings down the stretch.

Here are the results of the Saints' last five games:

23-10 loss @ Carolina (where the starters barely played)
20-17 loss vs. Tampa Bay
24-17 loss vs. Dallas
26-23 win @ Atlanta
33-30 win @ Washington

The tight Atlanta win came without having to face Matt Ryan or Michael Turner and the Washington win...well, it was against Washington. That's five straight weeks of subpar performances, including two wins against teams they should have dominated. And then there was that Tampa Bay loss.

So I think Arizona has a better than average chance of beating the Saints, especially on the fast surface of the Superdome. So, what about those "hot" Cowboys? Well, they beat New Orleans, which, as previously mentioned, may or may not be impressive. Then they shut out Washington -- no great feat -- and twice hammered Philadelphia, which came into their week 17 contest on a six-game winning streak. So much for being "hot."

A few years ago, I did a study on streaking teams in MLB and the NFL to see if there really was any correlation between being on a win streak and whether a team would win its next game. The correlation in baseball was virtually nil. In 2005, a team that had won six or more games actually won its next game less than 50% of the time. Football, with its smaller sample size, was a little more volatile. Over the five seasons I looked at, a team with a four-game or higher win streak was 107-54 (.664) in its next game.

So, what's all that mean? That Dallas's win streak means less than the fact that the team is talented. So are the Vikings. (And consider that San Diego, on an 11-game winning streak, is still not favored to win the Super Bowl.) I think the "buzz" over the Cowboys playing well in December and January and the Vikings being so-so over that same time span is enough to influence people to think that the Cowboys are the better team. But we're all too smart for that, right?

Let's hope so.

Vikings get late Christmas present

With the Saints improbably losing to the Bucs on Sunday, the Vikings are suddenly alive for the #1 seed in the NFC again. On the even brighter side, if the Bucs could travel to the Superdome and beat the Saints, I don't feel too bad about the Vikings' chances to do the same, so a #2 seed would also be a nice consolation prize. In any case, if the Vikings can nail down that #2 seed (or better), it guarantees that the only outdoor game they might be playing January will be in Miami for the Super Bowl. Now if only Denver could have come through and beaten the Eagles, our weekend would have been complete...

Oh right, except for that pesky detail of beating the Bears tonight.

The down side to the wacky weekend? It guarantees that Brett Favre will get no rest, as both the Vikings' remaining regular-season games will have impact for the team. To which I say: fine. Every game is expected to be meaningful, and a quarterback is expected to play all 16 games in a season. If the quarterback can't play a full season, then that's a negative that needs to addressed. In a sense, I've found it a trifle odd that everyone was so concerned about Favre's durability this year. I mean, the guy's only probably the most durable player ever. But if part of his playing well was supposed to entail him getting rest at the end of the season, well, most teams don't have the luxury of resting their starters at the end of the year; in fact, apart from the Colts, the only teams that can do that now are making vacation plans for January. Favre's been excellent, but if we only rented a three-month quarterback, then maybe we should have made other plans. At least he'll (probably) get a week off before his first postseason game in purple.

Thank you, 49ers

The 49ers gave the Vikings a nice holiday gift this year, in the form of a 24-9 whipping of the Arizona Cardinals. To be fair, the Cards beat themselves, making seven turnovers and making me more confident that, apart from New Orleans and maybe Philadelphia (which just frightens me based on last year), I don't think there's an NFC team the Vikings can't handle, and handle fairly easily at home once the playoffs start. (More on the Vikings' playoff potential seeding at the end of this post.)

Around this time of year, once teams start clinching home-field advantage and other playoff positioning, the inevitably tired conversations pop up about whether teams should rest their players or keep playing hard. This year, with two 13-0 teams, the talk is even more spirited. There are, in effect, four possible outcomes, and three of them are bad:

Team rests its starters:
A) They then win their first playoff game -- Good call, coach, they needed the rest!
B) They lose their first playoff game -- Coach, you were too soft on them!

Team doesn't rest its starters:
A) There's a crucial injury in a "meaningless" game -- What were you thinking playing that guy?
B) There are no injuries -- Whew, we got away with that one!

Remember when the Patriots were 15-0 a few years ago and played all-out in that Saturday game against the Giants? What if Tom Brady or Randy Moss would have been injured during that game? It would have gone down at Bill Belichick's second-worst decision ever (after the 4th and 2 this year, of course).

There are simply so many variables that can happen during a game or games that any talk ascribing any particular meaning or consequences to whether guys play or not during their "meaningless" games is just that -- talk. No matter how it's approached, if something bad happens, it will be because the coach played guys he shouldn't have or didn't give them enough rest.

I especially "love" the argument that guys need to keep playing to stay sharp and if they lose in the first round (result B from above), it was because they got too much rest at the end of the season. Consider this: Suppose that Peyton Manning was hurt in, say, week 8. We'll assume it's a type of injury that wouldn't be expected to linger or otherwise affect his football performance when he comes back, say a poke in the eye or a concussion (which I realize is bad, but once you recover from it, it doesn't generally hamper you like, say, a dislocated shoulder or broken leg). When he comes back in, say, week 12, everybody expects him to be at full strength and to play like he always did. Even Peyton himself, who's been able to work out this entire time and still do pretty much everything expected of him except get out on the field, would think that he'll be perfectly fine when he comes back. And he probably will. If he's a little off or has a bad game, hardly anyone would attribute it to rust or other consequences of missing three weeks.

Ah, but now it's week 15 of the regular season. If Peyton misses the next three games -- strictly on a voluntary basis -- and the Colts lay an egg in their playoff game, it'll be because they "took those three games off," and that will be the beginning and the end of the discussion as to why the team lost. Never mind that most teams that do rest their starters do so because they're good teams that have secured a high seed and have the ability to rest them and usually progress far in the playoffs. It's only the failures that we notice and that we try to ascribe some higher meaning to, other than, "The other team was better."

All of which brings us back to the Vikings. If they can beat Carolina next week and if Philadelphia loses either of its next two games, and the Saints can somehow find a way past Dallas and Tampa Bay at home, then, by the time the Vikings take the field against Chicago on Monday night in 13 days, the NFC standings would look like this:

1) New Orleans: 15-0
2) Minnesota: 12-2
3) Philadelphia: 10-5

No other team in the conference could be better than 10-5 except the Packers, who could be 11-4, but the Vikings would still hold tiebreak over them in the division. Thus, the Vikings would be locked into the #2 seed, with two games left to play, thus allowing them to give vital rest to Brett Favre -- who will probably play enough to keep his streak going -- Adrian Peterson, and other vital members of the team. And if that makes the team go 12-4 and keeps everyone fresh for the playoffs, I'm all for it.

If the Saints lose two of their next three games, the Vikings could run the table and tie them at 14-2 and own a better conference record, thus winning the tiebreaker and securing the #1 seed. There's about zero chance the Saints lose to the Bucs at home in two weeks, so that would require them losing to Dallas at home and one the road against Carolina, an unlikely proposition.

But hey, it doesn't hurt to dream.

A Saint-ly present

If you're like me, you hate that some stores are already putting up Christmas decorations in early October. Pre-Halloween is just too early for Santa Claus and Jingle Bells, in my opinion.

Fortunately for the Vikings, though, the Saints are were in a giving mood last night, offering up a very early Christmas present Monday night in the form of a 30-27 win where the team looked positively Viking-like, committing a mind-boggling plethora of costly errors.

After the first drive of the game, when the Saints got a kickoff return that set them up at midfield and then promptly marched down for a TD, I thought it was going to be a blowout. When the Vikings punted on fourth-and-6 from the Saints' 36, I knew that Brad Childress and his moronic play-calling would cement the win for the Saints.

Then Martin Gramatica lined up for the field goal. I thought, "Hey, that's right, they have Martin Gramatica! If any kicker can find a way to lose the game, it's him!" And lo, it was made so, both on Antoine Winfield's return of the blocked FG and on Gramatica's missing a go-ahead kick late in the fourth quarter. Between those two points, the Saints, who looked nearly perfect up to that time, made a host of mistakes (interspersed with a few good plays). Notably:

* 11 penalties for 102 yards, including the big PI at the end of the game that set up the game-winning field goal.

* 3 turnovers (discounting the last-gasp interception on the hail mary), two deep in Vikings territory and one deep in their own, all of which essentially took points of the board for the Saints or handed them to the Vikings. And yes, Chad Greenway yanked on Reggie Bush's facemask. Nice to see a bad call go our way for once.

* A failed surprise onside kick, recoverd by Garrett Mills and converted into a Vikings field goal. Not a bad call, really, just a great job by Garrett Mills.

* Signing Martin Gramatica. Really, why?

Meanwhile, I'm not sure what to make of the Vikings special teams. The blocked field goal and Mills' recovery of the onside kick were great. Several long kickoff returns by Pierre Thomas gave the typically potent Saints' offense great field position, nullified only by some bizarrely bad plays later in their drives.

And then, of course, there was Reggie Bush. While I'm personally never a fan of "kicking away" from someone (here's an idea -- cover better), the real culprit in that debacle was Chris Kluwe. There, I said it. Forget that he kicked it to Bush in the first place. The problem was the complete lack of hang time on any of his second-half punts, giving Bush plenty of space to set up returns and torch the Vikings repeatedly. You'd think that having my least favorite coach criticize my favorite Viking player would make me explode, but on this one point, at least, I agree with Coach Childress.

Of course, Childress wasn't exactly a coaching genius throughout the rest of the game. There was that fourth-and-6 punt from the 36. Even more absurd, on the next drive, from the same field position, he attempted (and made) a 53-yard field goal. Huh?

And while I can't argue with the volume of passing this game, considering how much Adrian Peterson was swallowed up (to the tune of 32 yards on 21 carries), the "curious" (as Mike Tirico put it) choice to run twice on the final drive of the second quarter was perplexing. And, given Childress's overwhelming love of the pass, I was deathly afraid he was going to try to sneak a throw in on the final set of downs after the pass interference set up the Vikings inside the Saints' 20, instead of forcing New Orleans to run out the clock. Admit it, you were thinking the same thing, too.

The best coaching of the night? Whoever was calling the defensive plays for the Vikes. The Saints did next to nothing on offense in the second half and it was due in large part to the willingness of the Vikings to bring pressure in the form of extra attackers, whether it be linebackers, safeties, or corners. I haven't seen the Vikings pressure a QB like this since the last time we played Jon Kitna (who must be shaking in his boots after watching this game). Granted, whenever the rush didn't get to Drew Brees, and he had sufficient time, he'd zing it downfield for a completion, but there was just enough pressure to keep him off balance and prevent him from making a truly big play after the long pass to Devery Henderson in the first quarter. And next week we get Detroit. That could get real ugly, real quick.

In the end, a win's a win, and I'm glad for it. The Vikings actually did a few things right, though the Saints' mistakes were what really sealed the win for the Purple. Fortunately, the Vikings face a considerably more inept team next week and, while I shouldn't say we should get overconfident, it's not like the Vikings players read my blog anyway (and I know Brad Childress doesn't). So yeah, I'm going to be overconfident heading into the Detroit game. Why not? I haven't had the chance all year.

Minny vs. N.O.: Monday Night

The Vikings head into tonight's prime-time matchup with New Orleans looking to stay competitive in what now appears to be a very mediocre NFC North. Chicago now inexplicably leads the division at 3-2, while the Green Bay Packers, who looked as good as any team in the NFL after two weeks, have lost three straight to fall to 2-3. And Detroit is, well, Detroit. The best thing that can be said about the Lions is that the Vikings still get two games against them, while their other divisional rivals only get one. So they'll finish with at least three wins on the season, guaranteed.

That said, falling to 1-4 with a loss to New Orleans tonight, while not the end of the world, given the divisional standings (but I guarantee you that the MNF opener tonight will label this game a "must-win" game for the Vikings), would still put the team in a hole it never expected to be in through the season's first five games.

On the bright side, the team gets back LT Bryant McKinnie, returning to action following his four-game suspension by the league. Following matchups with some of the best pass rushers in the league, the Vikings should be fairly satisfied with only allowing 10 sacks through four games with Marcus Johnson and Artis Hicks filling in for McKinnie. New Orleans' starting defensive ends, Will Smith and Charles Grant, have a combined five sacks, and the Saints as a team have dropped the opposing quarterback 10 times, so one would think that McKinnie's return will help give Gus Frerotte the time he needs to find his receivers (whoever they are -- see below) and help create holes for Adrian Peterson (averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 105 rush yards per game without McKinnie) to run through. The "run it left" offense is back!

Unfortunately, with the presence of McKinnie comes the absence of another Viking stalwart. MLB E.J. Henderson dislocated two toes in last week's game against Tennessee and is listed as doubtful for tonight's game. Worse, he may miss several weeks of action due to the injury. If there's any silver lining to the injury, it's that the Vikings have a bye in three weeks, so Henderson would likely, at most, miss tonight's game and the upcoming Chicago and Detroit games. Meanwhile S Madieu Williams is expected to need at least one more week before he recovers from the neck injury he sustained in the presason. Rookie Tyrell Johnson will get another start in Williams' place.

Of possibly greater concern is the injury status of the wide receivers. Also questionable for tonight's game are WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice. If neither can go, Frerotte's top two targets will likely be Bobby Wade and Robert Ferguson, which in itself should be enough to convince coach Brad Childress to run the ball about 40 times (but he probably won't). On the flip side, New Orleans will be without Jeremy Shockey and Marques Colston, but that doesn't seem to matter to Drew Brees, who typically throws for about 350 yards a game anyway and could probably even make Troy Williamson look good.

With everything going against them -- multiple injuries, road game, a good opposing passing game, and the typical lunacy of Brad Childress -- the odds seem stacked against the Vikings this week. I'll be honest: In our office pool, I picked the Saints. But strange things can happen in the NFL, and if Miami can beat both New England and San Diego, then the Vikings can beat New Orleans, which, despite all its offensive weapons, is only 2-2, allowing 25 points per game. This might be the night that the Vikings, who haven't scored more than 20 all season, finally break through offensively, but it might take a creative playbook and ingenious playcalling to do it.

In other words, not bloody likely. But hey, there's always hope.

2008 Strength of Schedule, Misery-wise

In my last post, I looked at the "Misery Index," defined as the sum of turnovers and sacks -- plays that typically generate points for fantasy football defenses -- for teams from the 2007 season. Then I said the Vikings would have an average opposing Misery of 62.2 in 2008, slightly below the 63.1 average of all teams during the 2007 season. I wanted to figure out opposing Misery Indeces for all teams, using their 2008 schedules, but didn't want to have to compute it all by hand. Thankfully, one scheduling page and some nifty Excel work later, and I was able to compile all the data into one spreadsheet in about 15 minutes. Thank you, I'll take a bow now.

The results are below. Remember, this chart represents the average turnover+sack total each of these teams will face for the upcoming season, based on their opponents' 2007 stats. It's like taking every 2008's opponents' win-loss record and combining it all to say that teams opposing Team X had a .530 winning percentage in 2007. It doesn't necessarily mean that team has an extremely tough schedule the next season -- the opposing teams change from year to year, and .530 is so close to .500 as to be nearly insignificant -- but it gets people talking (and usually complaining about their team's "tough" schedule or another team's "easy" schedule).

Team	Misery
New Orleans Saints	67.4
Arizona Cardinals	67.2
New England Patriots	67.1
Washington Redskins	65.5
Seattle Seahawks	65.4
St. Louis Rams	65.3
Atlanta Falcons	65.1
Buffalo Bills	65.0
New York Giants	64.6
Green Bay Packers	64.5
San Diego Chargers	64.5
Miami Dolphins	64.4
Dallas Cowboys	64.3
San Francisco 49ers	64.1
Philadelphia Eagles	64.0
Carolina Panthers	63.9
Cincinnati Bengals	63.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	63.8
Chicago Bears	63.5
Oakland Raiders	62.5
Minnesota Vikings	62.3
Denver Broncos	62.2
Tennessee Titans	62.2
New York Jets	61.8
Houston Texans	61.6
Detroit Lions	61.0
Cleveland Browns	60.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	60.1
Indianapolis Colts	59.8
Kansas City Chiefs	59.5
Baltimore Ravens	58.8
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.9

Defensively, New Orleans has the easiest schedule, misery-wise for 2008, and Pittsburgh the toughest. That's fairly easy to see, based on their division schedules. Seven of New Orleans' 2008 opponents had Misery Indeces of 70 or higher in 2007, while Pittsburgh takes on eight of 16 teams with Misery Indeces of 50 or lower, including the league's best, New England and Indianapolis.

Now, does this mean you should rank the Saints' defense ahead of the Steelers' defense in 2008? Probably not. The most pseudo-accurate determination you could make from this list would be to say that, for example, if an average defense played the Saints' 2008 schedule against teams that performed exactly as they did in 2007, you might expect that team to pick up about 67 turnovers + sacks. That average team playing against Pittsburgh's 2007 opponents would get about 56 turnovers + sacks. Obviously, '08 teams are different from their '07 versions. Again, this has about as much relevance as strength of schedule. If New England had the toughest SOS in the league for 2008, would you still bet against them to go to the Super Bowl?

That said, it's interesting to note that four of last year's better defenses -- Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville -- rate among the league's toughest five schedules. I've always thought you never want to be the first guy to draft a defense in fantasy football, and with these squads likely among the first off the board, that might be truer than ever this year. I'll wait a little while and take New England or Seattle, both of whom gave up fewer than 300 points in '07 and seem to have pretty easy SOS for 2008. And they may have the 21st best Misery SOS, but I'll still take the Vikings -- though I might not want to start them until week 3.